GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

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Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

Perhaps Georgia is gonna be like Wisconsin where the only the most insane and conservative republicans can win statewide by energizing the crazy nut job conservative base.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Unpopular? opinion: Perdue is probably one of the stronger GOP candidates out there and his entrance probably precludes a total crazy like Jody Hice or Marjorie Taylor-Greene winning the nomination. On the other hand, as we saw in 2021, crazy turnout in Georgia might fall if the candidate isn't sufficiently crazy, and Democratic favored trends, as well as the inelastic nature of the state, should make a Warnock a favorite. However, while Perdue may get lower rural turnout, he will not be utterly annihilated in the suburbs (I could see Democrats breaking 61% in Cobb and like 66% in Gwinnett if MTG was the nominee ). TL;DR, Lean D is fair for this, and the GOP won't be throwing it away immediately.

Perhaps Georgia is gonna be like Wisconsin where the only the most insane and conservative republicans can win statewide by energizing the crazy nut job conservative base.

Again this creates the issue of getting utterly nuked in suburban counties, if Democrats start breaking 60% in Cobb, Republicans cannot win the state, given the rurals are nearly maxed out for them.

Yea, depends on how much the state trends. It could either end up as like Wisconsin or like Virginia

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Imagining a Loeffler, Perdue primary is hilarious.

“No I lost better!”

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Warnock broke the color barrier, it's gonna be hard to dispatch him from office from GA.

I hope he serves along with future Senator Mfume who is the heir apparent should DC become a State should Ds net gain seats

If this was a Prez and we had Biden, Kenyatta would be an excellent idea, but we need Fetterman. Blue collar roots can help is in other races

Why do you think Mfume, a Baltimore politician who currently represents them in congress, would be a senator for DC?

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The worst thing about Hershel Walker is his absolutely just self entitled egotistical son getting more privilege

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If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

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Official announcement:

https://twitter.com/herschelwalker/status/1430567635054387201?s=21

So the race to the bottom continues…

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I still expect Walker to prevail, since Trump's endorsement overrides all the local Republicans'.

Eh his endorsement helps but doesn’t always prevail over locals (see TX-06 special)

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https://twitter.com/ChristianWVids/status/1432430786989346817

As a gay man let me say how much me and every other LGBT person I know/seen absolutely LOTHES his existence

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I still support Herschel for senate, but he should probably calm his son down.
https://twitter.com/cp_619/status/1470852321550733325?s=21

His son know as an absolute nut job and a joke to anyone under 30. He makes me wish I was straight

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He's gonna get gay rights taken away from all of us

Honestly if he is what gay rights leads to I’ll give them up.

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Could Christian Walker (Hershel Walkers son) be a liability.

I don’t say this lightly but he seems like a really terrible person. He’s gay yet actively is against the lgbtq community and comes across as a spoiled brat and kinda crazy on his social media. He also spends tons of money on clothes and stuff and then complains about high gas prices. One post even tried to argue the lgbtq community isn’t impressed because he had a nice car and fancy clothes. Look it up and you’ll see what I mean

Listen if Christian walker becomes a senator son I’m leaving this planet

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https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1561451694742839296?s=20&t=oQ3gbQjbIsll...

Is this guy really that dumb?

All of those concussions from his football career have really fried his brain.

Sadly, I believe this is probably true.  He seems to be much less articulate than he was several years ago.

As someone who has a dad who played college and high school football suffering many, many concussions in the process id agree

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Question for anyone on the ground or who has seen ads - is Warnock focusing on abortion? I feel like he has not been hitting Walker nearly enough on the issue, but maybe I just haven't seen ads about it.

Abrams is, Warnock isn't, in the ads I've seen.

Interesting. Feels like a total miscalculation on his part.

In Georgia? Not at all.

How so? Even a place like KS is overwhelmingly pro-choice, clearly.

Cause in the Southern states, large swaths of Dem voting rural blacks oppose abortion and are generally just culturally more conservative on social issues. Really the only place where abortion has support in the South is liberal cities and Atlanta alone isn't enough to carry the state (though it can get a Dem 80% of the way there).

This ^
the democratic nominee for SC-07 in 2018 was anti gay marriage

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The last two pages of this thread makes my brain melt

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This race is so strange... you really have a candidate who is on tape threatening a shoot out with police and his wife (and son) on record about his violent tendencies, who is walking around with a fake police badge touting his support from the police...

Appearing in police propaganda was part of his acquittal deal

^{this is a joke}

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https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1585680306807488512

Does that mean if Walker loses, that the GOP is racist?

I've found the election in Georgia this year to be interesting, for the fact that both major-party nominees are black. I can only imagine what has been going through the minds of white and evangelical voters in the recesses of Georgia, and I wonder if there is any chance that Walker might lose some votes to the Libertarian candidate there on the basis of racist sentiment.

You clearly haven’t followed SC politics. In every senate election with Tim Scott he has always faced another black candidate

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https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1586846185859465216

So apparently West was born in Atlanta… I think I know who Warnock is facing in 2028

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One factor I keep coming back to:  with only 4 weeks until the runoff, Warnock has substantially less time to bank early votes than in 2021.  I wonder if it matters. 

I'm not sure why that would be a factor, it's not like those people are going to stay home. They'll just vote on E-Day if they don't have the chance to vote early.

Democrats use early voting to bake in turnout from their low propensity types (i.e., inner-cities, minorities, the poor, those with mobility issues, college students, etc.)  Having to rely on ED turnout to bank those votes is a higher risk proposition, as the GOP has recently learned.

Republican turnout will be down though, without Kemp on the ballot and being demoralized from an awful midterm.

I don’t buy that.  Walker is already a deeply flawed candidate.  What could he do in the next four weeks to turnoff the true believers?  Kemp already ran significantly ahead and Walker is finishing only 0.5 points behind

D runoff turnout is more of a question that R turnout, IMO

Warnock is leading by 0.9%, not 0.5%. The CNN number is wrong based on Henry County.

1.3% actually, with Warnock at 49.6%

Damn those .41% of people that didn’t vote for Warnock and gonna make us have to go through this again in a month

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Weird fact: In high school I dated the Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver.

Pretty sure I haven’t mentioned that here.

How do we know this is real?

Why would anyone willingly admit to dating a libertarian if it wasn’t true.

Also I didn’t know Oliver was gay, so that’s lit

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Bro apparently Warnock won most precincts in eastern Cobb, almost every Henry and Gwinnett precinct, and a few precincts in Cherokee County. That’s actually insane

If democrats start to get around 40% in Cherokee County then I think republicans will be done in Georgia

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I would not be surprised if GA-11 and GA-06 flip by the end of the decade. Heck even GA-10 with Athens and the far south end of the Georgia suburbs, not to mention a chunk of the black belt and Black Atlanta.

This might actually end up being a dummymander

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NYT now has the Biden 2020 to Warnock December 2022 swing map, which is a lot more relevant in the long term than the November to December 2022 swing.

Lol that sea of red swings in neighboring swing states is amazing, Republicans really gained everywhere except where it mattered.

At least for SC you can pin it on a scandal with the D candidate. She said something about how you need to treat white people like trash.

Also Tik Scott is uniquely popular and has the best constituency service of any Republican in the state

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Does anyone have a map or top swings since November? It's interesting that some here have talked about Walker swings in north GA, while the map on Atlas from 2020 Senate (technically 2021) has Dem swings in north GA and mainly Repub swings south of the Atlanta metro.

November 2022 Senatorial - December 2022 Senatorial Runoff swing map (Atlas style):

Only 2 counties saw Warnock do more than 5 points better than November (including Walker's home county); only 11 counties saw Walker do more than 2 points better than November (and only 1 of those - Quitman - was greater than 3 points in his Walker's favor).

What’s being considered walkers home county here?