GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GP270watch]

 Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

[wbrocks67]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

I mean true, but a Democrat winning by 3% in Georgia is basically a blowout by their current standards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gas prices are 40.00 a barrel it's nothing the Rs can do about it beating Biden isn't happening

[Minnesota Mike]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

It's great Georgia will have 2 Democratic Senators for at least the next 4 years, barring an unexpected vacancy, but beating one of the worst candidates of my lifetime by only 3 points is not a good short term sign for Democrats. Georgia remains the reddest purple state IMO.

[wbrocks67]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

It's great Georgia will have 2 Democratic Senators for at least the next 4 years, barring an unexpected vacancy, but beating one of the worst candidates of my lifetime by only 3 points is not a good short term sign for Democrats. Georgia remains the reddest purple state IMO.

Pretty sure any R candidate is still assured like 47-48% in Georgia at this point in time no matter what. It just is what it is; says more about polarization than anything else.

[wbrocks67]

Truly stunning evolution since Biden in 2020 for many of these

Fulton:
Nov 2020: D+43
Jan 2021: D+45
Nov 2022: D+49
Dec 2022: D+53

Gwinnett:
Nov 2020: D+17
Jan 2021: D+21
Nov 2022: D+20
Dec 2022: D+24

Cobb:
Nov 2020: D+11.6
Jan 2021: D+14
Nov 2022: D+16
Dec 2022: D+19

DeKalb:
Nov 2020: D+65.5
Jan 2021: D+68
Nov 2022: D+70
Dec 2022: D+73

Cherokee:
Nov 2020: R+40.6
Jan 2021: R+40
Nov 2022: R+38
Dec 2022: R+38

Chatham
Nov 2020: D+17.5
Jan 2021: D+20
Nov 2022: D+21
Dec 2022: D+24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pathetic it was even this close considering the gulf in candidate quality, it shows the partisan and nonsensical reality of our elections. At the very least Warnock gets 6 years to let the burgeoning Democratic state of Georgia develop.

It's great Georgia will have 2 Democratic Senators for at least the next 4 years, barring an unexpected vacancy, but beating one of the worst candidates of my lifetime by only 3 points is not a good short term sign for Democrats. Georgia remains the reddest purple state IMO.

Hershel Walker was a Football player it was poor blk men and  blk females that voted against Walker the Rs never elevate blk females except Condo Rice, that's been their problem in 303 states Elder samething, Walker elevate blk men and Tim Scott is retiring in 2026

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if it was mentioned either, but Warnock literally scooped up the entire rest of the vote from Nov. Walker was at 48.5% in Nov, 48.6% last night (may drop to 48.5 depending on outstanding ballots)

[GP270watch]

Not sure if it was mentioned either, but Warnock literally scooped up the entire rest of the vote from Nov. Walker was at 48.5% in Nov, 48.6% last night (may drop to 48.5 depending on outstanding ballots)

 So the GOP could run a potato and get 48.5% in Georgia and would probably get 51% if they ran a peanut!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Overall, polling was great again! Warnock +3 in the end, and that was close to the average. Warnock expanding on his previous high of +2.0 over Loeffler is really impressive, especially in a Biden midterm.

Really irked me too how the CNN panel reacted last night. Instead of giving Warnock credit, it was nothing but "Walker was bad!" Yes, Walker WAS bad, but Warnock likewise was a fantastic candidate and deserves just as much credit. Dana Bash was of course cringe as usual, not only realizing that Warnock's lead would grow (it was like +0.8 at this moment) when she was like "WHY IS THIS SO CLOSE?!!!!" to Amy Klobuchar, despite them all also dooming that night acting as if Walker was going to win, and acting like GA is some blue bastion when Warnock will end up with the best Dem margin in decades.

The rest of the panel was a mess too. Duncan in GA is ridiculous, he refused to give Warnock credit either, and acted like a normal Republican would've won easily. The rest of the panel also was a mess, especially Van Jones, who couldn't just give Warnock/Dems credit and they all kept both sides-ing everything saying that "both sides need to take an evaluation after tonight" as if Democrats and Warnock did not just do smething incredible in the last month. Like, they are allowed to take a victory lap for a day! Jesus christ.

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

These people act as if all those awful candidates were imposed by Trump and not chosen by the Republican voters.
Or as if Republicans had never fielded wackos and weirdos before 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

I hope he does as the more he talks the more he self destructs. The key is though that the media and RDS and any of his primary opponents  must not take the bait and interrupt him while he is acting like this as that was the number 1 mistake of 2016.  They should take heed of the famous Napoleon quote of “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” this time .

[Devils30]

Not sure if it was mentioned either, but Warnock literally scooped up the entire rest of the vote from Nov. Walker was at 48.5% in Nov, 48.6% last night (may drop to 48.5 depending on outstanding ballots)

Yep, this was as predictable as any election in recent memory. No one who didn't vote Walker in round 1 was going to in the runoff.

[Torrain]

Given we’ve officially crossed the “Georgia votes for a Democratic Senator, in a Democratic presidential midterm” rubicon, I’d like to share a hot take from a decade ago:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ossoff/status/266256488186667008

[wbrocks67]

Overall, polling was great again! Warnock +3 in the end, and that was close to the average. Warnock expanding on his previous high of +2.0 over Loeffler is really impressive, especially in a Biden midterm.

Really irked me too how the CNN panel reacted last night. Instead of giving Warnock credit, it was nothing but "Walker was bad!" Yes, Walker WAS bad, but Warnock likewise was a fantastic candidate and deserves just as much credit. Dana Bash was of course cringe as usual, not only realizing that Warnock's lead would grow (it was like +0.8 at this moment) when she was like "WHY IS THIS SO CLOSE?!!!!" to Amy Klobuchar, despite them all also dooming that night acting as if Walker was going to win, and acting like GA is some blue bastion when Warnock will end up with the best Dem margin in decades.

The rest of the panel was a mess too. Duncan in GA is ridiculous, he refused to give Warnock credit either, and acted like a normal Republican would've won easily. The rest of the panel also was a mess, especially Van Jones, who couldn't just give Warnock/Dems credit and they all kept both sides-ing everything saying that "both sides need to take an evaluation after tonight" as if Democrats and Warnock did not just do smething incredible in the last month. Like, they are allowed to take a victory lap for a day! Jesus christ.

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

These people act as if all those awful candidates were imposed by Trump and not chosen by the Republican voters.
Or as if Republicans had never fielded wackos and weirdos before 2016.

Yep, it's amazing that the pundits still refuse to put any onus on GOP voters for literally being the ones to vote for these people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But clearly it was a /303 map guess what IA 6+OH 17 is 23 which is replaced now with AZ 11 plus GA 16 equals 25 added to 278which is 303

Rachel Maddow already said this in 2012/2018/2020/22 that IA and OH 23 EC votes with 278 is replaced  by AZ and GA 25 EC votes for 303 Map

FL and TX and NC were always 413 not 303 states

[prag_prog]

I am thankful for Warnock's patience tbh..he has now been involved in 4 different Senate campaigns in span of 2 years...we usually see how a single swing state Senate campaign itself can be gruelling, it's amazing that Warnock was involved in four such campaigns in just 2 years. It must have been exhausting

[President Johnson]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

[Devils30]

One interesting thing is Walker did better than Trump 2016, 2020 and Kemp in 2018 in South Georgia. This was an absolute trouncing and due to trends in ATL metro (particularly Cobb, Gwinnett, Fayette, Fulton, Rockdale, Henry, Forsyth) it didn't matter one bit and actually helped Warnock. Without additional black voters, it's hard to see how the math works for the GOP in this state if it remains Trumpy. Note, a Youngkin type can definitely still win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Also Kemp did better with the African American vote then Walker did . This once again shows that this entire idea of the way to make inroads with a specific demographic is too pick someone from that demographic is utterly false .

[LostFellow]

Turnout differentials are quite an obvious reason to explain shifts between the GE and Runoff imo.

• In the North GA rurals, Dems are heavily reliant on the Hispanic and youth vote. Hispanic turnout was modestly down since the GE, and youth turnout was slightly down.
• In the northern GA burbs, the Kemp GE -> no vote affect was the strongest, leading to Dem shifts.
• In the ATL core and southern burbs, even including the southern halves of Cobb/Gwinett, black turnout was way up, leading to shifts towards Ds.
• In the midsize fall line and coastal cities (Augusta, Savannah, Macon, Columbus, Albany, Brunswick), these metros are essentially mini-Atlantas, so Black enthusiasm and the Kemp GE -> no vote effect swings these counties D.
• In the southern rurals, the blackest counties had pretty strong swings towards Warnock--the black belt swung D. Otherwise, it was a wash between black enthusiasm and general lower minority turnout patterns between the GE and runoffs.

No need to go into hypotheticals about Marcus Flowers.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It really is a mess how regular election folks on Twitter knew exactly what was going on and the people getting paid to do this on TV literally have no idea what they're talking about.

By contrast, this thread was an unreadable mess on election night. I expect this forum to be the most knowledgeable place anywhere about elections, but instead last night every post consisted of commentary on the needle, as if I couldn't go to the New York Times website and go look at the needle myself.

I was able to use the collective knowledge of this community to get information last night that confirmed that Warnock would win easily when other people didn't know that, but I had to go off the forum to do it, because at the same time everyone in this thread was posting about how great Walker was doing.

They’re doing what the people who write their checks tell them to do. I was honestly high last night and laughing. At one point, they were like “he’s a football hero and that resonated” LMFAO

[One Term Floridian]

@ProudModerate2,
Warnock will not get 2.9!

Deal?

Warnock is at 2.7 according to the Georgia Sec of State and 2.8 in the NYT, so this guy will either:

- claim that it didn't reach exactly 2.9 and die on this hill
- dissapear forever from the thread as so many of his republican brethren have done in the past month

They'll be back during the next R wave and will be SO INSUFFERABLY SMUG about it then just u wait...

[MasterJedi]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

I hope he does as the more he talks the more he self destructs. The key is though that the media and RDS and any of his primary opponents  must not take the bait and interrupt him while he is acting like this as that was the number 1 mistake of 2016.  They should take heed of the famous Napoleon quote of “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” this time .

He’s still loved by the 40% of the rabid base. By the time the rest coalesce it’ll be too late.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

I hope he does as the more he talks the more he self destructs. The key is though that the media and RDS and any of his primary opponents  must not take the bait and interrupt him while he is acting like this as that was the number 1 mistake of 2016.  They should take heed of the famous Napoleon quote of “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” this time .

He’s still loved by the 40% of the rabid base. By the time the rest coalesce it’ll be too late.

DeSantis pretty much crushes the rest of the field while none of the non Trump 2016 candidates could do so. For Trump to win he needs to get over 50% this time

[Landslide Lyndon]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

One of the election nerds on twitter said that from a first look Warnock probably won blacks by 93-7 and that there were precincts in DeKalb where he got 98-99%.