GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

It’s like 10%, but that could def matter around the margins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Perhaps Hispanic dropoff, similar to what happened in West Texas?

Are there so many Hispanics living at Georgia's Appalachian counties?

It’s like 10%, but that could def matter around the margins.

There are 10% Hispanics in the entire state but I'd expect the vast majority of them to live in Atlanta, not Rabun county.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1600344451100344321

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump is taking this well.

[BenjiG98]

Trump is taking this well.

Off topic, but I love this ad that implies canned cranberry sauce causes diabetes.

[Lief 🗽]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Maybe a lot of people came out to vote against MTG in the general but didn’t care as much when she wasn’t on the ballot?

[Mr. Illini]

I remember thinking a few years back that Dems didn’t have much of a bench on the national level. 2018 and 2020 produced some really strong Democratic pols, Warnock included. Whitmer, Kelly, Shapiro, among others. The future is bright.

[wbrocks67]

This is going to be the dumbest part of the night, with the dumbest and most predictable freakouts from people who don't understand how vote counting works STILL somehow.

CNN and MSNBC were an absolute travesty last night. This entire trajectory from last night is exactly what happened in November and yet the pundits (even good ones like Rachel, Nicole, Joy, etc. on MSNBC) were acting as if Walker was making a comeback and Warnock had lost. There was an entire segment where they seemed resigned to Walker winning in the end when he was up like 51-49, despite tons of blue vote still out.

It really is a mess how regular election folks on Twitter knew exactly what was going on and the people getting paid to do this on TV literally have no idea what they're talking about. Conversely, thank god for Twitter because if I was watching this on TV with no social media, you would think that Walker had it sewed up for a while. Total hot mess.

[Хahar 🤔]

It really is a mess how regular election folks on Twitter knew exactly what was going on and the people getting paid to do this on TV literally have no idea what they're talking about.

By contrast, this thread was an unreadable mess on election night. I expect this forum to be the most knowledgeable place anywhere about elections, but instead last night every post consisted of commentary on the needle, as if I couldn't go to the New York Times website and go look at the needle myself.

I was able to use the collective knowledge of this community to get information last night that confirmed that Warnock would win easily when other people didn't know that, but I had to go off the forum to do it, because at the same time everyone in this thread was posting about how great Walker was doing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

[here2view]

Warnock will win by 2 or 3, bump this when it's all done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It really is a mess how regular election folks on Twitter knew exactly what was going on and the people getting paid to do this on TV literally have no idea what they're talking about.

By contrast, this thread was an unreadable mess on election night. I expect this forum to be the most knowledgeable place anywhere about elections, but instead last night every post consisted of commentary on the needle, as if I couldn't go to the New York Times website and go look at the needle myself.

I was able to use the collective knowledge of this community to get information last night that confirmed that Warnock would win easily when other people didn't know that, but I had to go off the forum to do it, because at the same time everyone in this thread was posting about how great Walker was doing.

That must've happened during the period that I was driving that I mentioned where apparently Walker both took and lost the lead before I got home. Then I definitely was driving at the right time.

[Comrade Funk]

Going from David Letterman to the most milquetoast version of Colbert....sad

[wbrocks67]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

do you ever get tired of being wrong every time

[South Dakota Democrat]

DeKalb County posts and just like I predicted a short while ago

Warnock 51.2
Walker 48.8

Maybe 10 or 15K are left Statewide.

Still puzzled where crappy Nate Cohn and his nonsense NEEDLE get the 2.9 Warnock Margin.

do you ever get tired of being wrong every time

He needs to stop using the NEEDLE.

[wbrocks67]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Some people on Twitter theorized that Marcus Flowers may have helped juice turnout a bit in the GE which ... is not crazy. His millions helped improve the margins there for Dems like 5-6% didn't it? So it's possible that helped Warnock lose a little bit less in the GE?

[wbrocks67]

Overall, polling was great again! Warnock +3 in the end, and that was close to the average. Warnock expanding on his previous high of +2.0 over Loeffler is really impressive, especially in a Biden midterm.

Really irked me too how the CNN panel reacted last night. Instead of giving Warnock credit, it was nothing but "Walker was bad!" Yes, Walker WAS bad, but Warnock likewise was a fantastic candidate and deserves just as much credit. Dana Bash was of course cringe as usual, not only realizing that Warnock's lead would grow (it was like +0.8 at this moment) when she was like "WHY IS THIS SO CLOSE?!!!!" to Amy Klobuchar, despite them all also dooming that night acting as if Walker was going to win, and acting like GA is some blue bastion when Warnock will end up with the best Dem margin in decades.

The rest of the panel was a mess too. Duncan in GA is ridiculous, he refused to give Warnock credit either, and acted like a normal Republican would've won easily. The rest of the panel also was a mess, especially Van Jones, who couldn't just give Warnock/Dems credit and they all kept both sides-ing everything saying that "both sides need to take an evaluation after tonight" as if Democrats and Warnock did not just do smething incredible in the last month. Like, they are allowed to take a victory lap for a day! Jesus christ.

The best was that annoying Republican (not Josh Holmes but something similar) who is always on their panels saying something like "after this midterm, voters clearly want new leaders and new blood" trying to equate Biden and Trump and how both should step aside in 2024, as if Biden did not just deliver an incredible midterm performance! Absolute insanity.

[Tintrlvr]

Any theory for why Walker improved so much in Northern Georgia specifically? It's really the only region that had a clear swing toward him from November (the rest of rural GA was a wash and obviously metro Atlanta and other major cities swung toward Warnock). Why could that be? I heard it was raining pretty bad there on Election Day, but if that depressed turnout it should have hit Republicans harder since proportionally more Democrats voted early.

Some people on Twitter theorized that Marcus Flowers may have helped juice turnout a bit in the GE which ... is not crazy. His millions helped improve the margins there for Dems like 5-6% didn't it? So it's possible that helped Warnock lose a little bit less in the GE?

The swing to Walker covers more than just GA-14, it's the whole north of the state, including almost all of GA-09 as well as the outer parts of GA-06 but excluding the suburban part of GA-14 down in Paulding County. So this explanation doesn't make sense.

[It’s so Joever]

A problem for Rs is not just black growth, but college educated black growth. While both probably vote similarity now, at least there is room for improvement with the first group…but as the second group grows in the Southern Atlanta suburbs it’s going to be an uphill battle.

[wbrocks67]

The margin improvements for Warnock in the biggest counties were incredible:

Fulton: 4% better than Nov
Cobb: 3% better
DeKalb: 3% better
Gwinnet: 4% better
Chatham: 3% better

And the bottom hasn't yet fully fallen out for Republicans in these areas either.

[It’s so Joever]

The margin improvements for Warnock in the biggest counties were incredible:

Fulton: 4% better than Nov
Cobb: 3% better
DeKalb: 3% better
Gwinnet: 4% better
Chatham: 3% better

And the bottom hasn't yet fully fallen out for Republicans in these areas either.

It may have in DeKalb, but otherwise yes.