GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[ctherainbow]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I notice that Millennial Moderate is absent tonight.

Mods banned him from posting on this thread is why

Good call.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600310238489366530

[Alben Barkley]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

No you're not the only one. My napkin math was more accurate faster than the needle in 2020, when I was confident of the exact results by early morning while the media was dragging out the horse race.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

[TheReckoning]

Warnock wins by between 1-2 points. Heard it here first.

[Alben Barkley]

It really isn't a "squeaker," Rachel Maddow. Most of the remaining vote is Atlanta metro and it's tied right now so... Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what's going to happen.

[Comrade Funk]

Time to finish watching Euphoria where the needles are dependable

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rockdale County is actually insane

2000: Gore at 34%
2004: Kerry at 39%
2008: Obama at 54%
2012: Obama at 58%
2016: Clinton at 61%
2020: Biden at 70%
2022: Warnock at 75%

[emailking]

Oh it's a lot closer now, phew

[Horus]

Warnock wins by between 1-2 points. Heard it here first.

1.5 looks about right. A little disappointing, but the seat is now Warnock's likely as long as he wants it.

[TheReckoning]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

[LimoLiberal]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

The two biggest swings to Walker are in the counties directly above Cherokee and Forsyth.

That could portend swings to Walker in Cherokee and Forsyth.

That's the only thing still keeping Walker in the game.

[Gracile]

Warnock is at or overperforming his November margins in a few Southwest Georgia Democratic rural counties that are >95% in - Calhoun, Clay, and Randolph. In Randolph he is only 15 votes behind his general election raw vote number.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

GA has more votes counted in 2 hours than CA has in 5 days, lmao.

California's ballot is also dozens of times longer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Orwell has been muted from the board until tomorrow for trolling in this thread.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I don’t think we should judge the NYT too harshly, a newspaper that age is prone to have Needle dysfunction issues

[Ferguson97]

MARICOPA INCOMING

[Person Man]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

It should be Warlock v Warewolf.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dougherty county, home of Albany, now fully reporting. Went from Warnock +41 to Warnock -43.

oh no, that's an 84 swing against Warnock! We're screwed.

DEMS IN DISARRAY

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

Folks are lazy. They just want to point to a simple tweet or needle for reassurance.

It's like how you can't just post an update or detailed analysis without folks being all "Stop explaining and just tell me if I should freak out"

[Pres Mike]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Walker gave a speech about a movie he had watched the previous night that had werewolves and vampires in it. It was widely mocked.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

The two biggest swings to Walker are in the counties directly above Cherokee and Forsyth.

That could portend swings to Walker in Cherokee and Forsyth.

That's the only thing still keeping Walker in the game.

No, at this point that is nowhere near enough to offset. Also Cherokee and Forsyth are suburban/exurban in nature whereas Pickens and Gilmore counties are disconnected from metro Atlanta's influence politically.

[ctherainbow]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

No you're not the only one. My napkin math was more accurate faster than the needle in 2020, when I was confident of the exact results by early morning while the media was dragging out the horse race.

A business proposal for you:

1) I crunch data on the back of the napkin
2) You crunch data on the front of the napkin
3) We input our data into our own “needle” (maybe styled as a scale of justice?  Idk, needs work)
4) Profit

[Alben Barkley]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.