GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[NOVA Green]

Cobb county just dumped more, not sure of votes yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I notice that Millennial Moderate is absent tonight.

He was muted from this board until tomorrow.

[Thunder98]

Glascock County is basically all in. 91-9 Walker. In the Nov Election it was 90-9-1 Walker.

[Horus]

Richmond county, home of Columbus, goes from Warnock +38 to Warnock +40.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/GartonArthur/status/1600309939058221059

[soundchaser]

If Walker loses (which seems increasingly more likely), I wonder if he's going to come up with some really funny excuse for why he lost, or just go literally silent like Oz. I keep checking and Oz has literally posted nothing on his Insta since Nov 8.

Probably a good chance he just completely forgets about the whole thing by tomorrow.

Or he perpetually lives in a 50 First Dates scenario where he thinks he's still running for Senate and no one has the heart to tell him.

[Not Me, Us]

Walker back in the lead. Not sure where the votes are coming from.

[Ferguson97]

In 2004 George Bush won Rockdale County with 60% of the vote. Warnock is winning it tonight with 75% of the vote.

GOOD LORD

I'm assuming this is a suburban county? Good lord, what an absolutely insane shift in coalitions...

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond-Augusta done. Notable cause Walker lost the same number of votes as Warnock. Statistically, its easier to lose larger numbers of votes in counties won by landslide margins. So Walker is losing net votes in the rurals and in the suburbs. Which is why I called it earlier and why this map is the predicator:

[TheReckoning]

Glascock County is basically all in. 91-9 Walker. In the Nov Election it was 90-9-1 Walker.

I’m sure a 1 point shift in a microscopic county is exactly what Walker needs to win this election, yeah.

[All Along The Watchtower]

that f—ng needle though

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/brent858/status/1600300993081737217

[Dani Rose]

Aaaaand every single remaining vote dump lay in blue areas.

Go for the pin, Reverend.

[Spectator]

In 2004 George Bush won Rockdale County with 60% of the vote. Warnock is winning it tonight with 75% of the vote.

GOOD LORD

I'm assuming this is a suburban county? Good lord, what an absolutely insane shift in coalitions...

Black migration is most of it.

[Brittain33]

Richmond county, home of Columbus, goes from Warnock +38 to Warnock +40.

Richmond is Augusta

[Hindsight was 2020]

When would they start calling it?

[Mike88]

Walker back in the lead. Not sure where the votes are coming from.

Cherokee just updated their numbers to 80%. Walker leads 69-31%. Plus other smaller rural areas who are finishing their counting.

[Alben Barkley]

It seems like both the black and white rural counties are polarizing towards the side you'd expect. More or less cancels out. So the urban/suburban areas decide the election, and seems like that will be for Warnock.

But MAN does tonight ever solidify the case for Georgia as INELASTIC.

[Oryxslayer]

In 2004 George Bush won Rockdale County with 60% of the vote. Warnock is winning it tonight with 75% of the vote.

GOOD LORD

I'm assuming this is a suburban county? Good lord, what an absolutely insane shift in coalitions...

Not at all. Suburbanization. And south Atlanta suburbs new residents are being populated by 90% African Americans. The south Atlanta shifts are cause of expanding middle-class AA suburbs, the north Atlanta shifts are voters swings, with gradual diversification from all minority groups not just African Americans.

[ExSky]

Glascock County is basically all in. 91-9 Walker. In the Nov Election it was 90-9-1 Walker.

Funny enough those are the raw vote totals too.

[Adam Griffin]

...are we past the point where people are panicking (like in November) because ruby-red county ED vote dumped T+2 hours in while more D vote is outstanding? I hope so.

[Nyvin]

Fulton has been at 55% reporting forever

[ProgressiveModerate]

In 2004 George Bush won Rockdale County with 60% of the vote. Warnock is winning it tonight with 75% of the vote.

GOOD LORD

I'm assuming this is a suburban county? Good lord, what an absolutely insane shift in coalitions...

Yeah, it's one of those experiencing insane black spillover. Only gave Obama 58% of the vote in 2012

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Warnock will win, but the fact that this race is even close is a disgrace. Someone like Herschel Walker shouldn't even be allowed to physically touch the Capitol building with his finger.

[ctherainbow]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.