GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Spectator]

Just want to say how lucky Dems are that it’s Warnock up this year and not Ossoff. I don’t know if Ossoff would have survived the first round against Walker.

[TodayJunior]

pretty sure the GOP is tired and worn out now and giving up on the senate race here, just as I predicted with senate now in DEM control.

[prag_prog]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

[bagelman]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

I do hope Warnock gets a poll bump but what I really want to see is a strong Democrat GOTV operation.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If you were the Walker campaign or the GA GOP how would you play your cards for the runoff? It's pretty clear Walker isn't favored at this point, but there still has to be some path to victory for him. I would do a few things.
1) Keep Trump out of the race at all costs, he will drive up Dem turnout and many Rs are starting to get sick of him. This applies to people like Loeffler or Perdue as well, although I doubt they even care that much. The only people who should be leading rallies in Georgia are Kemp, DeSantis, Youngkin, and maybe Zeldin. They are probably the most popular figures in the GOP at this point. Bonus points if you can get Raffensperger's support.
2) Still frame it as if the senate matters. Say an R vote will lead to conservative agenda being able to pass and holding Biden accountable. If its possible, even straight up say Senate control is still at stake even though that is a lie. You gotta push that the election matters.
3)Shut tf up, just be a blank slate for conservatism. Walker has a habit of saying weird things he needs to play as safely as possible. Let Kemp and DeSantis do the talking.
4) Push for early vote. Despite what many stopthestealers and Trump may say, you need to get your voters out and locked in as quickly as possible. Hedging everything on ED turnout is not a smart move... Support VBM if that's what it takes.
5) Tie Warnock to Abrams - its worth a shot. She is not popular and you need to try to connect that to Warnock. If they are going to try to tie Walker to Trump he needs to fire back somehow.

I still think Warnock is favored in the runoff rn, but Walker's campaign needs to thing long and hard about this if they are still in it to win it.

[soundchaser]

If you were the Walker campaign or the GA GOP how would you play your cards for the runoff? It's pretty clear Walker isn't favored at this point, but there still has to be some path to victory for him. I would do a few things.
1) Keep Trump out of the race at all costs, he will drive up Dem turnout and many Rs are starting to get sick of him. This applies to people like Loeffler or Perdue as well, although I doubt they even care that much. The only people who should be leading rallies in Georgia are Kemp, DeSantis, Youngkin, and maybe Zeldin. They are probably the most popular figures in the GOP at this point. Bonus points if you can get Raffensperger's support.
2) Still frame it as if the senate matters. Say an R vote will lead to conservative agenda being able to pass and holding Biden accountable. If its possible, even straight up say Senate control is still at stake even though that is a lie. You gotta push that the election matters.
3)Shut tf up, just be a blank slate for conservatism. Walker has a habit of saying weird things he needs to play as safely as possible. Let Kemp and DeSantis do the talking.
4) Push for early vote. Despite what many stopthestealers and Trump may say, you need to get your voters out and locked in as quickly as possible. Hedging everything on ED turnout is not a smart move... Support VBM if that's what it takes.
5) Tie Warnock to Abrams - its worth a shot. She is not popular and you need to try to connect that to Warnock. If they are going to try to tie Walker to Trump he needs to fire back somehow.

I still think Warnock is favored in the runoff rn, but Walker's campaign needs to thing long and hard about this if they are still in it to win it.

This is all pretty good strategy, which is why the Walker campaign is already failing at more than one part of it.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

Dem turnout may not have been great but it's far more reliable at this point in non-November elections that rural R turnout. Especially when there's no motivation for Walker voters who don't like him to vote specifically for him. They showed up in November to vote for Kemp/against Abrams or for Senate control. What do they have here.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Weird fact: In high school I dated the Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver.

Pretty sure I haven’t mentioned that here.

How do we know this is real?

Why would anyone willingly admit to dating a libertarian if it wasn’t true.

Also I didn’t know Oliver was gay, so that’s lit

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs picked up 9 H seats, no change in the S and net loss 2 Gov mansions

[Ferguson97]

If you were the Walker campaign or the GA GOP how would you play your cards for the runoff?

Honestly? Pay a woman to falsely accuse Warnock of rape. That kind of thing is not beneath Republican political operatives, and even if the media is able to prove that it's a lie before the runoff, enough people might still believe it to make the difference.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

Dem turnout may not have been great but it's far more reliable at this point in non-November elections that rural R turnout. Especially when there's no motivation for Walker voters who don't like him to vote specifically for him. They showed up in November to vote for Kemp/against Abrams or for Senate control. What do they have here.

This is exactly why I think Warnock will win. As do the betting markets.

[Agafin]

If Trump really announces today, Walker is done. Even without the announcement, this race is borderline likely D.

[Spectator]

If Trump really announces today, Walker is done. Even without the announcement, this race is borderline likely D.

Agreed. Trump probably cost Republicans any chance they might have had in the runoff (which wasn’t much to begin with)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1592530919180886016

[Devils30]

Will the runoff be the last red Fayette for decades?

[wbrocks67]

....

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1592851943415681024

[Person Man]

....

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1592851943415681024

Yes and Republicans vote the day after Democrats and Independents.

[Oryxslayer]

Will the runoff be the last red Fayette for decades?

That or last week, barring any future GOP landslide.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1592950306757038083

This is embarrassing

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is hilarious:

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1592965506390454273

[wbrocks67]

Walker seems to be even worse in this final stretch than he was in the last few months... and that's saying something

[Kabam]

I am not a vampire ads when?

[prag_prog]

Please someone (other than partisan R pollsters) do a runoff poll

[Dani Rose]

Official Danielle Rose Prediction: the combination of Trump's announcement and the unassailable wall of lame duck legislation is going to make this...not even close.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1592954140887773184?s=20&t=7S9gbDWU98bTvQ...