Florida 2022 Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

[2016]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

Again Ros-Letihen was basically a god tier fit for the seat, was Cuban and quite moderate. She outperformed top of the ticket by insane amounts. By your definition a seat like WI-03 would be D leaning.

This seat prolly still leans R at least for 2022 but Salazar def shouldn’t take anything for granted

[2016]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

Again Ros-Letihen was basically a god tier fit for the seat, was Cuban and quite moderate. She outperformed top of the ticket by insane amounts. By your definition a seat like WI-03 would be D leaning.

This seat prolly still leans R at least for 2022 but Salazar def shouldn’t take anything for granted

Salazar is as moderate as Ross-Lehtinen. She voted for the COVID Relief Bill at the beginning of 2021, she voted for the Jan 6th Commission, she voted for the Infrastructure Bill.

Now compare Salazars Record as a Congresswoman with the Record Annette Taddeo had as State Legislator in FL before joining the 2014 Crist Democratic Ticket. It was ultra progressive liberal as you can get.

Good Luck beating Maria-Elvira with that! Taddeo is a Socialist - Period!

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is good news. FL-27 is still Lean R but she was not gonna win gov (priamry or GE) and is prolly one of the best canidates on the D side for the district.

She holds a Trump + 6 2020 seat in the state Senate and has respectable wins in the past, though she's no electoral titan who's a shoe-win. A lot of this race will come down to how special (or not special) Trump's 2020 performance was. Salazar could've had the district easily locked down for the decade but she's become progressively more conservative, and while she did overperform Trump in 2020, some of that could've been she was facing Shalala.

She holds a Trump +6 seat solely because the seat was up in 2018. She would have been cooked in 2020. Its likely r.

You could make the argument Trumps (and Salazar’s) performance was specific to the 2020 electorate. Both 2016 and 2020 are quite abnormal years in Miami so it’s a bit hard to tell.

It's a Trump (+1) seat with an incumbent who outperformed Trump by 7 points as the challenger. Likely R is being generous. Yes I know Taddeo is clearly a better candidate than Shalala but it simply does not matter here.

It’s a Trump + 1 seat that has voted D in every other statewide majour election iirc. Also if Tadeo had challenges Salazar in 2020 I guarantee you the over performance on Salazars part would’ve been smaller than 4

Hello? This is the Seat that belonged to Illena Ross-Lehtinen before she retired so it always had a Republican-lean!

Again Ros-Letihen was basically a god tier fit for the seat, was Cuban and quite moderate. She outperformed top of the ticket by insane amounts. By your definition a seat like WI-03 would be D leaning.

This seat prolly still leans R at least for 2022 but Salazar def shouldn’t take anything for granted

Salazar is as moderate as Ross-Lehtinen. She voted for the COVID Relief Bill at the beginning of 2021, she voted for the Jan 6th Commission, she voted for the Infrastructure Bill.

Now compare Salazars Record as a Congresswoman with the Record Annette Taddeo had as State Legislator in FL before joining the 2014 Crist Democratic Ticket. It was ultra progressive liberal as you can get.

Good Luck beating Maria-Elvira with that! Taddeo is a Socialist - Period!

The main difference is that while they may not be too different in terms of actual votes, Ross-Lehtinen was more vocal in her opposition to the GOP whereas Salazar feeds into most GOP talking points. It's funny though cause on her website she actually has issues dedicated to things such as Climate Change but you never actually hear her talk about that.

She'll likely win in 2022 but Taddeo was never a hyper-progressive, more of just a pretty generic D

[Senator Spark]

After each day, I feel like DeSantis is more and more extreme. FL, in recent memory, I thought was more of a moderate swing state. I actually disapprove of DeSantis probably as much as Trump now. Rooting for Crist.

[UWS]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

[2016]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

He is losing in a FAKE POLL. Listener Group doesn't even exist. It's fake!

[2016]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

DeSantis also has almost 160 Million $ Cash on Hand in his Campaign Account compared to Crists 11-12 Million. FL Republicans have a 135K Registration Edge now which is likely going to grow.

Floridas Economy is booming unlike the Countries.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah because of the tourist attraction and cruise industry is back up to speed but any Gov can create a good economy based on Cruise liners Crist can do that too but income inequality remains the top concern for voters and the Rs favor tax cuts for the rich they blocked BBB because they refused to raise Corporate taxes from 20(27 percent we will see if another poll backs up the other D one but DeSantis isn't winning by 9/12 pts

[President Johnson]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

California has had major surpluses since Jerry Brown took over the state and get its fiscal house back in order. Not long before, the state had the worst credit rating of all 50 states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

California has had major surpluses since Jerry Brown took over the state and get its fiscal house back in order. Not long before, the state had the worst credit rating of all 50 states.

The surplus is created by the cruise liners with casinos becoming back online even in HI the cruises are going back online due to ending of Pandemic they are begging for servers again on cruises again

[2016]

Yeah because of the tourist attraction and cruise industry is back up to speed but any Gov can create a good economy based on Cruise liners Crist can do that too but income inequality remains the top concern for voters and the Rs favor tax cuts for the rich they blocked BBB because they refused to raise Corporate taxes from 20(27 percent we will see if another poll backs up the other D one but DeSantis isn't winning by 9/12 pts

Wrong, absolutely totally wrong! Economy/Jobs & Inflation/Gas Prices, etc. are the Top Issues for Voters this Midterm Election Cycle.

All Republican Incumbent Governors will win incl. DeSantis, Kemp and Abbott because of the National Political Environment.

The only two Governor Seats Democrats will win are Maryland & Massachusetts.

[2016]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

California has had major surpluses since Jerry Brown took over the state and get its fiscal house back in order. Not long before, the state had the worst credit rating of all 50 states.

In the current Political Climate there is ZERO, ZERO, ZERO chance DeSantis loses.

A lot of Governors from both Sides, Democrat & Republican alike will outperform their Senate Candidates. Voters are fed up with Washington D. C.

DeSantis will outperform Rubio in FL. Kemp will outperform Herschel Walker in GA, heck Walker might even lose while Kemp is going to win.

Republican Governors like DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, etc. are the only thing Standing between a total Democrat Power Grab because they stand up against fraudulent, sleepy Joe Biden and crazy Nancy Pelosi + crazy Chuck Schumer.

Having a Governors Seat is far more valuable than being one of the 100 Senators or 435 House Members.

Republican Governors are the only ones protecting the Country from overreach & Socialism.

[brucejoel99]

Salazar is as moderate as Ross-Lehtinen. She voted for the COVID Relief Bill at the beginning of 2021, she voted for the Jan 6th Commission,

Every single House Republican voted against the American Rescue Plan, lol. Why lie about something so easily disprovable?

she voted for the Infrastructure Bill.

Salazar wasn't 1 of the 13 House Republicans who voted for infrastructure. Why lie about something so easily disprovable?

Now compare Salazars Record as a Congresswoman with the Record Annette Taddeo had as State Legislator in FL before joining the 2014 Crist Democratic Ticket. It was ultra progressive liberal as you can get.

Taddeo first joined the FL State Legislature when she won the State Senate seat in 2017 that she continues to hold today. 2017, you'll notice, was 3 years after she was Crist's running mate in 2014. So, why lie about the existence of something that's literally so easily disprovable? How can something that doesn't exist be as "ultra progressive liberal as you can get"?

Good Luck beating Maria-Elvira with that!

Correct; it'd literally be impossible for Taddeo to base her campaign against Salazar on a record that literally doesn't exist.

Taddeo is a Socialist - Period!

Ahem:

The Democrats will not have both Legislative Chambers in Washington come January 2nd 2023. It will likely be like the Obama Years with Democrats potentially having the Senate and Republicans controlling the House by a bigger margin compared what Democrats have now.

Time to reel in President Biden & his Socialistic Cohorts Kamala, Nancy and Schumer.

If you think Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, & Chuck Schumer are "socialists," then you don't understand what that word means.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is gonna be within 3 pts just like in 2020 it's not gonna be a blowout by DeSantis and in 1 poll Crist is leading

[2016]

This race is gonna be within 3 pts just like in 2020 it's not gonna be a blowout by DeSantis and in 1 poll Crist is leading

Trump won with over 3 Points in 2020 you little knee jerk. Florida has moved even more to the right since then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah right and the poll lied about Crist leads DeSantis I believe the poll that shows Crist ahead but of course you only believe polls that have D's losing

[brucejoel99]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

Oh, & this is wrong too. What FL currently has is a $20B budget reserve for a rainy day, thanks to portions of revenue surpluses set aside over time; not a $20B budget surplus going into FY22-23. The actual general revenue surplus which the 2022 legislative session contended with was $11.3B, a record figure, but only a record thanks to the huge influx of federal COVID-relief payments, without which, the surplus would've amounted to only $7B. By comparison, the previous reserve figure was just $9.5B, so while he indeed more than doubled it, he was only able to thanks to the impact of federal stimulus dollars; hell, had he left total spending static compared to the previous year, he could've even added an extra $8.3B to the reserve, enough to wipe out our entire state debt of $24.3B & still have $4B left over, but why would he do that when he could just dedicate those free federal funds to the state's battles in the forever-ongoing culture war instead?

Compare all of that to, as President Johnson mentioned, CA, which had an actual budget surplus of $97B for FY21, & either DeSantis doesn't know what the difference between a budget surplus & our budget reserves (i.e., our rainy-day fund) is, or he's banking on nobody really knowing/caring about the difference when they're too busy mindlessly praising him anyway.

[UWS]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

Meanwhile, your candidate far-leftist liberal Charlie Crist ran $5.2 billion in debt and lost 832 000 jobs during his time as Governor and he raised taxes by $2.2 billion two weeks after he signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge. Gas prices are skyrocketing and Florida has the 9th highest gas prices in the country as the average state gas tax is 42.5 cents per gal and the average gas price is $2.39 per gal. Yet Crist supported Sleepy Joe's decision to revoke Keystone XL, thus killing 11,000 jobs, and he supports the Green New Deal and the THRIVE Agenda even though gas prices are at the highest rate since 2014 and even though that agenda would cost $2 trillion, ban fracking and abolish fossil fuel. The winner of such agenda is Vladimir Putin. So a vote for Charlie Crist is a vote for more funding for Putin's war in Ukraine and for more Ukrainian blood.

And even with issues emerging like guns and abortion, Crist will be portrayed as a flip-flop as he first thought abortion is a personal issue and not a government issue and he supported a partial-birth abortion ban. In 2006, he said he would sign a bill that would ban abortion in Florida and promoted a culture of life. Now he supports abortion. He first said he supported Second Amendment rights and was not in favor of strict gun control but now supports gun control. And in a state that is increasingly becoming red, Crist has an F rating from the NRA. Not a D minus, not a D, an F. So Crist is running to the left of Bernie Sanders and wants to take the guns of all Floridians.

Florida has a story of not electing serial flip-floppers. That's why George W. Bush won Florida over John Kerry in 2004 and why Barack Obama won Florida over Mitt Romney in 2012. Charlie Crist is just too wishy-washy to be Governor.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

Meanwhile, your candidate far-leftist liberal Charlie Crist ran $5.2 billion in debt and lost 832 000 jobs during his time as Governor and he raised taxes by $2.2 billion two weeks after he signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge. Gas prices are skyrocketing and Florida has the 9th highest gas prices in the country as the average state gas tax is 42.5 cents per gal and the average gas price is $2.39 per gal. Yet Crist supported Sleepy Joe's decision to revoke Keystone XL, thus killing 11,000 jobs, and he supports the Green New Deal and the THRIVE Agenda even though gas prices are at the highest rate since 2014 and even though that agenda would cost $2 trillion, ban fracking and abolish fossil fuel. The winner of such agenda is Vladimir Putin. So a vote for Charlie Crist is a vote for more funding for Putin's war in Ukraine and for more Ukrainian blood.

And even with issues emerging like guns and abortion, Crist will be portrayed as a flip-flop as he first thought abortion is a personal issue and not a government issue and he supported a partial-birth abortion ban. In 2006, he said he would sign a bill that would ban abortion in Florida and promoted a culture of life. Now he supports abortion. He first said he supported Second Amendment rights and was not in favor of strict gun control but now supports gun control. And in a state that is increasingly becoming red, Crist has an F rating from the NRA. Not a D minus, not a D, an F. So Crist is running to the left of Bernie Sanders and wants to take the guns of all Floridians.

Florida has a story of not electing serial flip-floppers. That's why George W. Bush won Florida over John Kerry in 2004 and why Barack Obama won Florida over Mitt Romney in 2012. Charlie Crist is just too wishy-washy to be Governor.

While I think he's running a more moderate campaign compared to most Ds, I agree Christ is pretty much damaged goods and everyone sees him as more or less a generic D which doesn't bode well in Florida for Dems, especially in what is likely to be an unfavorable national environment.

At the same time, Christ isn't a super inspirational canidate that will have potential to supercharge minority turnout which Dems would need out of places like Miami and Jacksonville to win Florida.

While Florida's political geography may not be that extreme, it's a very polarized state with a lot of energized voters in both directions due to years of being a swing state. Because of this, being politically moderate really isn't super helpful in most of Florida; I'd argue that being more politically extreme helps hype up your side more than it costs votes in Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

He is losing in the Listener poll 51/48 Ha to Christ

It's not over but it's not over for Crist or DeSantis but DeSantis tied just like Vance is tied with Ryan is embarrassing in this Environment where acred wave is supposed to happen

Meanwhile, your candidate far-leftist liberal Charlie Crist ran $5.2 billion in debt and lost 832 000 jobs during his time as Governor and he raised taxes by $2.2 billion two weeks after he signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge. Gas prices are skyrocketing and Florida has the 9th highest gas prices in the country as the average state gas tax is 42.5 cents per gal and the average gas price is $2.39 per gal. Yet Crist supported Sleepy Joe's decision to revoke Keystone XL, thus killing 11,000 jobs, and he supports the Green New Deal and the THRIVE Agenda even though gas prices are at the highest rate since 2014 and even though that agenda would cost $2 trillion, ban fracking and abolish fossil fuel. The winner of such agenda is Vladimir Putin. So a vote for Charlie Crist is a vote for more funding for Putin's war in Ukraine and for more Ukrainian blood.

And even with issues emerging like guns and abortion, Crist will be portrayed as a flip-flop as he first thought abortion is a personal issue and not a government issue and he supported a partial-birth abortion ban. In 2006, he said he would sign a bill that would ban abortion in Florida and promoted a culture of life. Now he supports abortion. He first said he supported Second Amendment rights and was not in favor of strict gun control but now supports gun control. And in a state that is increasingly becoming red, Crist has an F rating from the NRA. Not a D minus, not a D, an F. So Crist is running to the left of Bernie Sanders and wants to take the guns of all Floridians.

Florida has a story of not electing serial flip-floppers. That's why George W. Bush won Florida over John Kerry in 2004 and why Barack Obama won Florida over Mitt Romney in 2012. Charlie Crist is just too wishy-washy to be Governor.

Crist os leading 51/49 on the Listener poll that I posted over your DeSantis how many pts did DeSANTIS beat a Socialist Afro American in Gillum 0.5 not spectacular

Obama beat McCain in FL too in 2008 and McCain is no flip flopper and Jeb Bush was Gov in 2000/04 that's why Bush W won FL

Kerry and Gore picked the wrong running mate, Kerry didn't lost Edwards as we found out later was Gaffe prone and he Kerry should of picked Wes Clark or GEPHARDT

[2016]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

New Florida Registration Numbers:

Republicans 5,135,749

Democrats 4,959,838

Minor Parties  255,510

No Party Affiliation  3,865,575

Republican Advantage: 175,911

https://www.dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-county-and-party/

Democrats abandoning Florida. Democrats lost about 80,000 Voters in the last 3 Months in the Sunshine State.

It soon will become virtually impossible for Crist & Demings to win.

Voter registration numbers tend to be a bit iffy, especially since they can lag decades behind re-alignment in regions such as the panhandle. Still not a good sign for Dems but it really doesn't mean much unless one is actually seeing an acceleration in Republicans favor.