Florida 2022 Megathread

[Unelectable Bystander]

Does anybody know if registration trends are heavily affected by the political environment? It looks like Florida is absolutely gone, unless these numbers immediately reverse themselves or are somehow being driven by a wave.

These numbers are astonishing. Miami, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie look destined to outright flip, while the margins in Lee, Volusia, Lake, and Sarasota appear to still be growing

These Trends were in place after the 2012 Election and just got excelarated during the Trump Years.

Are there county-level registration stats available for the entire year? I’m curious to know if the inroads with Hispanics are sticking. It seems like they are, based on the last month’s activity in M-D and Osceola

[2016]

Does anybody know if registration trends are heavily affected by the political environment? It looks like Florida is absolutely gone, unless these numbers immediately reverse themselves or are somehow being driven by a wave.

These numbers are astonishing. Miami, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie look destined to outright flip, while the margins in Lee, Volusia, Lake, and Sarasota appear to still be growing

These Trends were in place after the 2012 Election and just got excelarated during the Trump Years.

Are there county-level registration stats available for the entire year? I’m curious to know if the inroads with Hispanics are sticking. It seems like they are, based on the last month’s activity in M-D and Osceola

The Inroads among Hispanics ain't all that surprising given in what State the National Democratic Party & the FLDP are. Biden vowed to be a Moderate but once in Office caved to the Progressives and Hispanics particularly in FL & TX do not like that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did Fried win in 2018

[Real Texan Politics]

How did Fried win in 2018

Fluke

[MARGINS6729]

Fried is an idiot.

[Calthrina950]

Fried is an idiot.

True. Between her and Crist, DeSantis has nothing to worry about this year. He will crush them.

[SnowLabrador]

I had thought that Fried winning while Gillum and Nelson lost had to count for something in terms of electoral prowess. But as it turns out, she sucks at this. It's not like we had a chance against DeSantis anyway, but it's still pretty embarrassing that we can't do better than this.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Florida is the worst state in the country. I hate it. Democrats should cut the deadweight and invest in Texas because we can't seem to find anyone who isn't cringe af in Florida.

[Sir Mohamed]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

Lol TX isn't flipping with inept Beto

[Sir Mohamed]

Both Fried and Crist are hilariously inept, which is symptomatic for FL Dems. No message that connects with voters, no big efforts to register new voters and better, more differentiated messaging. Fried's 2018 win was pretty much a fluke in a race people didn't pay much attention to. It's not a demonstration for actual electability.

The DNC shouldn't lift a finger and waste a single dime in this gov race. Put all the efforts into flipping the GA governorship, especially that you have an unpopular incumbent or a dude who already lost a statewide race in 2020 paired with a strong candidate (Abrams).

It certainly sucks Dems are so inept here; I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see Dems fail flipping this seat during the next R midterm while TX is actually within reach or won.

Lol TX isn't flipping with inept Beto

I said the next R midterm, which is 2026 at earliest.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

You know full well the only race we're not contesting is IA, MO and TX Ras Smith dropped out and Beto and kunce can't win, DS ARE STILL CONTESTING OH, NC, FL ITS CALLED WAVE INSURANCE


I like Cranley and Tim Ryan for Sen/Gov

Crist will win

[Real Texan Politics]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

You know full well the only race we're not contesting is IA, MO and TX Ras Smith dropped out and Beto and kunce can't win, DS ARE STILL CONTESTING OH, NC, FL ITS CALLED WAVE INSURANCE


I like Cranley and Tim Ryan for Sen/Gov

Crist will win

Just because they’re contesting it doesn’t mean they’ll win

[GregTheGreat657]

How did Fried win in 2018

WEED

[TodayJunior]

How did Fried win in 2018

WEED

Weed indeed with Fried. But yeah this is such a disappointment.

[Bootes Void]

How did Fried win in 2018

Some DeSantis\Scott voters probably forgot to check the AG race most likely

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

You know full well the only race we're not contesting is IA, MO and TX Ras Smith dropped out and Beto and kunce can't win, DS ARE STILL CONTESTING OH, NC, FL ITS CALLED WAVE INSURANCE


I like Cranley and Tim Ryan for Sen/Gov

Crist will win

Just because they’re contesting it doesn’t mean they’ll win

All we get is trash Biden 43 percent Approvals 10 mnths before an election no state by state numbers and IPSOS AND ZOGBY CONTRIDICT THOSE AND HAVE BIDEN AT 50 once Biden gets to 50 anything can happen, ITS STILL 10 MNTHS BEFORE AN ELECTION AND POLLS UNDERESTIMATE MINORITY AND FEMALE VOTES

I am not making anymore predictions based on Approvals not state by state numbers

[MARGINS6729]

Yeah, I had nothing against Fried but she's been embarrassing herself at this point.

It's too bad Demings didn't run for GOV. She's the only one in any of these races that is competent and has a shot (albeit still a small one).

Crist seems good on paper, but he's just been totally invisible.

I don't know where you've been looking but Crist has been all over the state. His Twitter may have some cheesy tweets but he has been on Spanish radio, did a press conference yesterday with Latino surrogates in front of Miami's Freedom Tower, went to a meeting in Century Village. He's not even close to totally invisible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Crist seems fine as a candidate and IIRC actually has a history of impressive over-performances in Pinellas County (part of why I really wish he’d run for re-election, but idk if he still over-performs there like he used to).  With him, the issue is more the national environment and FL’s shift to the right; I think he’d be even money to beat DeSantis in an even mildly Dem year and would have like a 40% chance in a neutral year (although my post-2018 policy is to just assume Dems will lose every competitive statewide race in FL until proven otherwise on Election Day). 

OTOH, Fried is just a complete dumpster fire who would be a disaster even in a 2010-level Democratic wave year. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Neutral Environment in the Senate and Govs, we don't know yet about the H Biden is at 50/48 in some polls that solidifies MI, PA, abd WI OH, NC and FL are DOA don't see pend money on those races ANYMORE

Biden only needs the blue wall to get reelected 🧱🧱🧱

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried is fried lol

It's not over till Nov 22

[2016]

Crist seems fine as a candidate and IIRC actually has a history of impressive over-performances in Pinellas County (part of why I really wish he’d run for re-election, but idk if he still over-performs there like he used to).  With him, the issue is more the national environment and FL’s shift to the right; I think he’d be even money to beat DeSantis in an even mildly Dem year and would have like a 40% chance in a neutral year (although my post-2018 policy is to just assume Dems will lose every competitive statewide race in FL until proven otherwise on Election Day). 

OTOH, Fried is just a complete dumpster fire who would be a disaster even in a 2010-level Democratic wave year. 

Democrats would need a 2018 Type Wave Year for Crist to turn FL Blue. The Question I have is currently the rougly 175,000 newly Republican Registered Voters since October 2020. If they turn out to vote that's Game Over for Democrats. Republicans also have rougly 300K more high propensity Supervoters in the State. That combined with the recent trends among Hispanic Voters in the State makes it almost impossible for Democrats to win in FL!

Check out this Site please
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

I used this Website a lot in 2020 and I knew Trump would win FL before we got the 1st Results.

[Utah Neolib]

Nikki Fried is the Blake Masters of the Florida Democratic Party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's aren't winning FL