Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Beshear would like the election to be a referendum on him, but voters have a funny way of changing that narrative.

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Beshear would like the election to be a referendum on him, but voters have a funny way of changing that narrative.

How exactly do voters change that narrative?

[MT Treasurer]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

[Tekken_Guy]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

You’re saying that if Emerson never did that poll the race would look different?

[MT Treasurer]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

[Tekken_Guy]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues. 

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

That makes sense. I just personally don’t see anything pointing to Cameron winning next week, and I don’t think he’ll be able to just ride his state’s partisanship to victory so easily.

[BigSkyBob]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

[Benjamin Frank]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues.  

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

I don't know what will happen, but for a historical perspective: in 1994 Texas Democratic governor Ann Richards had a 60% approval rating, but lost to George W Bush 54-46%.

I tend to pause before posting analogies like these thinking everybody here already knows them, then I remember that this happened nearly 30 years ago.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

[Tekken_Guy]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

[Birdish]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues.  

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

I don't know what will happen, but for a historical perspective: in 1994 Texas Democratic governor Ann Richards had a 60% approval rating, but lost to George W Bush 54-46%.

I tend to pause before posting analogies like these thinking everybody here already knows them, then I remember that this happened nearly 30 years ago.

Sure, but that wasn't in a vacuum. That was the same night as the Republican Revolution of 94. It was hard for any democrat to win a competitive race that night.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

[Benjamin Frank]

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Except John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly lost ground since their first election, something Beshear — unlike them — cannot afford.

Kentucky is still much more conservative than most red states — the fact that that referendum narrowly failed doesn’t disprove that, as it would have failed by more substantial margins in other places. Also, using that referendum as a proxy for this race makes no sense because there is a sizable cohort of pro-choice (but with some restrictions) Republicans in this state who vote Republican based on identity or non-abortion-related issues.  

Beshear is way more popular than Edwards and Kelly are. Had the latter two had Beshear’s popularity they would have likely outperformed their initial wins in their re-election campaigns.

And Roy Cooper and Steve Bullock did better in their re-election bids than their first wins. So did Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan. And Chris Sununu and Phil Scott’s first races in 2016 remain their weakest showings.

According to Morning Consult, which has a long record of showing unusually rosy numbers for most Democratic (and some Republican) incumbents. I don’t dispute that Beshear is popular with the electorate, but I’d bet that it’s closer to a +10-15 range than to Morning Consult's +25-30 one, including in both parties' internals.

The fact that you think Morning Consult is a more reliable pollster than Emerson is totally fine, but you shouldn’t be surprised that others won’t agree with you.

I don't know what will happen, but for a historical perspective: in 1994 Texas Democratic governor Ann Richards had a 60% approval rating, but lost to George W Bush 54-46%.

I tend to pause before posting analogies like these thinking everybody here already knows them, then I remember that this happened nearly 30 years ago.

Sure, but that wasn't in a vacuum. That was the same night as the Republican Revolution of 94. It was hard for any democrat to win a competitive race that night.

I guess, but the Democrats haven't won the Texas governorship since. I think ultimately this was the final shift of Texas from Democratic to Republican at that time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

No, it's not.  The two polls aren't inconsistent!  The +16 poll had N=450, which is a MoE of about 4.5%.  This applies to each candidate's share, so even without being an actual outlier, it could represent a real margin of Beshear +7 to +25.  I don't think Beshear was ever ahead by 16, let alone 25, but I can believe he was up by about 7 or so at the time of that poll.  The tied poll had N=1000, a MoE of about 3%, so it could represent anything from Cameron +3 to Beshear +3.  Based on other reports, I don't have any trouble believing the race has closed from, say, Beshear +7 to Beshear +3.  It could be even closer than that, of course, but that's all it would take to make the polls consistent based on their margins of error.

I think many of you don't appreciate how inexact polling, even high-quality polling, actually is.  The two polls DO NOT say the race has closed by 16.  They say the race has closed by somewhere between 4 (B+7 to B+3) and 28 (B+25 to C+3).  Yes, one end of this range is a lot likelier than the other.  

And that's not even considering that either or both polls could be actual outliers (i.e. outside the 95% confidence interval), and more importantly: the earlier poll was registered voters, while the later one was likely voters.  So they're comparing apples vs oranges; they're not measuring the same population of potential voters!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can this election just be over, for f***'s sake. What went from a surprisingly lackluster campaign is now to the level of contention of last year's midterms, all because of f***ing Emerson.

You’re saying that if Emerson never did that poll the race would look different?

The very recent discussion around this race would.

[EastwoodS]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

Was the race ever even Beshear +16 tho. It was probably always tied

[Sumner 1868]

Polling is extinct. How many cycles before this is realized at an institutional level? Hopefully this race, however it goes, will be the last straw of its undeserved respectability.

[DaleCooper]

Even if Emerson is "right" and Beshear loses, it calls into question why they released a fake poll earlier saying that Beshear is 16 points ahead.

I think what is likely is that they're anticipating the race to be closer than their polls indicate and they fudged the numbers in order to look better or have plausible deniability.

Fudged the Beshear+16, the tied poll, or both?

The tied poll.

Even if they didn't, it's still a bad sign because it shows that they fail to get accurate samples of the electorate. I don't believe that the race shifted 16 points recently.

Was the race ever even Beshear +16 tho. It was probably always tied

No, it wasn't ever +16. I think that was just another crappy poll, and then whatever their results were for this second one they moved the numbers down so they wouldn't be embarrassed when the race is closer.

[DaleCooper]

Polling is extinct. How many cycles before this is realized at an institutional level? Hopefully this race, however it goes, will be the last straw of its undeserved respectability.

This is why I am frustrated by the fake Emerson poll. If this is as narrow as 2019 was, then the pollsters and their apologists can prance around pretending that they were spot on and that this race shifted dramatically rightward over the course of 10 days, when it's transparent that they're just throwing stuff at the wall and hoping that the right number at the right time sticks.

[Devils30]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

Beshear should win but if he doesn't you might be able to credit the clowns in DC today. And unlike BLM (which had decent public support in polls), this will have almost done.