Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[EastwoodS]

Any posters in KY have a feel for the feeling on the ground in the final days?

It looks like Beshear is ahead, but he's really picking up more among gentrification types, not traditional Democratic voters.

Why don’t think he’s ahead? I not sure I would say anyone is head until we know what the Eday turnout is

[xavier110]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting win/signal. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

[Tekken_Guy]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting indicator. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

What would happen if Cameron wins by 5 or more?

[GeorgiaModerate]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting indicator. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

What would happen if Cameron wins by 5 or more?

Many of would be very surprised.

[xavier110]

My final guess is Beshear +2, tossup that tilts D. The abortion amendment map will be the closest reference to how this race plays out, IMO. However, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything Cameron +2 to Beshear +2. I’d be surprised if it’s a fairly decisive win outside of this range—Beshear stomping by over 5 feels anomalous and would be a very interesting indicator. I look to the re-elects of JBE and Laura Kelly as the closest comps.

What would happen if Cameron wins by 5 or more?

Considering the possible scenarios, I find this the least likely outcome (I’d rank it small Beshear win, 50/50 situation, small Cameron win, decisive Beshear, decisive Cameron). It’s hard to displace an incumbent governor. Beshear has had a commanding financial advantage, and he’s not weighed down by a scandal or horrible favorabilities that often result in an incumbent losing. In addition, special/off-year election dynamics should increasingly favor the Ds, even in Kentucky. It would make more sense to me if Cameron were to have a nice win in a presidential year.

I’ll try to noodle on the closest comp for a decisive Cameron win. Nothing immediately comes to mind. But if he wins big along with Reeves, I would consider it a fairly foreboding sign for Dems leading up to 2024. We would need to closely examine under the hood to see how he won, though, to better understand. A smaller Cameron win is easier to write off as a revert to KY’s partisan lean, given Beshear barely toppled Bevin in the first place.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

PredictIT currently has 70/30 in favor of Beshear. This is a historic and almost monumental moment for the website. The KY Gov race was one of its first ever markets, and the forecast was off massively with Conway as a 75/25 favorite to win the day before the election. 2019 rolls around and this time Bevin is a 70/30 favorite to win, only for a Beshear uspet to take place. Now that PredictIt is in its sunset days, this will probably be the last time the KY Gov race is up there. Will the bettors be correct, or will will the website be wrong 3 times in a row. Nevertheless, I think Predictit will wrap off with 2024 and end permanently in early 2025.

[EastwoodS]

PredictIT currently has 70/30 in favor of Beshear. This is a historic and almost monumental moment for the website. The KY Gov race was one of its first ever markets, and the forecast was off massively with Conway as a 75/25 favorite to win the day before the election. 2019 rolls around and this time Bevin is a 70/30 favorite to win, only for a Beshear uspet to take place. Now that PredictIt is in its sunset days, this will probably be the last time the KY Gov race is up there. Will the bettors be correct, or will will the website be wrong 3 times in a row. Nevertheless, I think Predictit will wrap off with 2024 and end permanently in early 2025.

I think the market has been ticking up for Cameron. It was like 90 Beshear a while ago

[Del Tachi]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

Also, Youngkin winning was a flip, while Beshear is already the incumbent in Kentucky; he already won once, so it can't be that shocking if he wins again.

Also, don't underrate the significance of a lot of Virginia being firmly within D.C.'s orbit.  Old Dominion is literally the backyard for the mainstream political press.

[EastwoodS]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

[Roll Roons]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

Also, Youngkin winning was a flip, while Beshear is already the incumbent in Kentucky; he already won once, so it can't be that shocking if he wins again.

Also, don't underrate the significance of a lot of Virginia being firmly within D.C.'s orbit.  Old Dominion is literally the backyard for the mainstream political press.

Literally because so many political journalists live in NoVA.

[Tekken_Guy]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

[Respect and Compassion]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

They indeed overestimated Republicans in 2022; however they may have adjusted in the other direction since then, so who knows

I still would not be surprised to see a Beshear+5 outcome or something like that; I agree with Alben on the range being Cameron+2 to Beshear+5.

This is one of the hardest races to accurately peg because of the large amount of voters who could go either way, which makes the range of possibilities wider than most other American elections in recent memory.

[Sestak]

Also, don't underrate the significance of a lot of Virginia being firmly within D.C.'s orbit.  Old Dominion is literally the backyard for the mainstream political press.

He was asking specifically as to why it got more attention on Atlas. Obviously, yes, the fact that political media covers it more will trickle into this place as well, but I think there are a few other factors. Firstly, I do believe that Atlas generally has more Virginian posters who post frequently about their state's politics (or at least it did up until 2021 lol). There are obviously Kentuckians here as well but they're mostly a smaller group with fewer longstanding forum connections.

Also, the end of the first year of a presidency is a space that desparately calls out for political news and, specifically, for identifiers of how the incumbent administration is being recieved. The end of the third year, by contrast, is going to have a lot more focus pulled away to the upcoming presidential contest itself. That's true even this year, when there isn't really a meaningful primary.

[EastwoodS]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

Are we just gonna choose to ignore the Trump +9 now

[Tekken_Guy]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

Are we just gonna choose to ignore the Trump +9 now

Trump’s favorability rating is typically 15-20 points worse than how he’d perform in an election with Biden. Sounds about right.

[EastwoodS]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

Are we just gonna choose to ignore the Trump +9 now

Trump’s favorability rating is typically 15-20 points worse than how he’d perform in an election with Biden. Sounds about right.

Nope

[wbrocks67]

Who knows with D4P. They botched 2022 extremely badly, not just in the midterms but also with the Pat Ryan election.

[Xing]

D4P is a junk pollster. I’d say toss the whole poll, even if Beshear +2 is overall a very plausible result.

[EastwoodS]

D4P is a junk pollster. I’d say toss the whole poll, even if Beshear +2 is overall a very plausible result.

pretty much my exact sentiment. This looks like some push poll. Beshear +2 is the least controversial, bipartisan take, at the moment though. I guess I'll see what voter data looks like tomorrow.

[BigSkyBob]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

That is completely consistent with all the other data. The data shows the race is very narrow. If the race is that close, one of the logical extensions would be either Cameron's approval has risen sharply, Bashear's approval has dropped significantly, or a combination of both. Bashear has taken a nuanced stance towards Biden, who in turn has taken a nuanced view of the squad, who have in turn taken a nuanced view of HAMAS. If that isn't bad enough, the former leader of the Democratic party, Barack Obama has just announced a new stance that posits a somewhat equivalence of victimization between the two sides.

[Alben Barkley]

Data for progress has it at Beshear +2. I get that a lead is a lead but that seems pretty narrow for a Dem tilting poll firm.
Also, Trump only has a +9% favorabilty according to them? Lmao.

DfP overestimated Republicans in 2022.

Also has Beshear’s approval rating at only +7.

That is completely consistent with all the other data. The data shows the race is very narrow. If the race is that close, one of the logical extensions would be either Cameron's approval has risen sharply, Bashear's approval has dropped significantly, or a combination of both. Bashear has taken a nuanced stance towards Biden, who in turn has taken a nuanced view of the squad, who have in turn taken a nuanced view of HAMAS. If that isn't bad enough, the former leader of the Democratic party, Barack Obama has just announced a new stance that posits a somewhat equivalence of victimization between the two sides.

Nobody here is voting based on Israel, let alone the Squad's or Obama's view on it. You don't know what you're talking about.

[oldkyhome]

I wish we could’ve gotten some good polls to gauge this race before the election. Feels like a contest like this should’ve received a lot more attention on that front.

[Mr. Smith]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

Also, Youngkin winning was a flip, while Beshear is already the incumbent in Kentucky; he already won once, so it can't be that shocking if he wins again.

Also, don't underrate the significance of a lot of Virginia being firmly within D.C.'s orbit.  Old Dominion is literally the backyard for the mainstream political press.

Not to mention Fast Terry, minion of The Clintons [TM] is a much more fun target than some dude.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it true that we should have a pretty good idea of the winner within 30min-1hr after polls close?

[Alben Barkley]

Is it true that we should have a pretty good idea of the winner within 30min-1hr after polls close?

It will depend on just how close it is. If it comes down to a point or so as I now predict, it will take some hours. If Beshear ends up winning by roughly 5 or so like the abortion referendum last year, we'll know much quicker. And if Cameron takes it by anything close to that, we'll likewise know much quicker.