Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I haven't followed this race, but I'm gonna take it that this'll be one of those where 10,000 votes and 0.4% will be the difference between Cameron being the only candidate who could defeat Bashear or the only candidate to lose to Bashear?


Likewise, that 10,000 votes will be the difference between declaring some folks here as election geniuses with a pulse for 2024 or moronic pieces of sh**t who should never predict an election ever again?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Many comments here about overreacting to one poll. How is the Emerson poll even inconsistent with the rest of the polling from the race? Beshear has always been in the 47-50 range, including both Emerson polls.

[ReallySuper]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

Beshear should win but if he doesn't you might be able to credit the clowns in DC today. And unlike BLM (which had decent public support in polls), this will have almost done.

the protesters were literally calling for a ceasefire, which has 66% approval in the u.s., including majority support among both independents and republicans. and if you seriously think that the deciding factor in kentuckians' minds while they are voting for governor is the fact that a bunch of people waved a palestinian flag in washington dc then i am begging you to please touch some grass.

[BigSkyBob]

To my surprise, I believe Cameron will pull this out.

Biden is unpopular.  Kentucky is still a coal state.  Kentucky is a socially conservative state, and it is generally considered Likely Republican in every race.  Beshear really can't claim to be a moderate, and you can't show me an area in which he's effectively dissented from the national Democratic line.

Cameron ty 3-4 points is my prediction in a race which will have become surprisingly nationalized

The race is a referendum on Beshear, not Biden. Beshear has very strong approval ratings. This is like saying Trump’s unpopularity will cost Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker re-election. Also, we’ve seen John Bel Edwards and Laura Kelly defy the lean of their states in their re-election bids.

Kentucky is not really that socially conservative, as the referendum to ban abortion failed there.

Next Tuesday is an election for Kentucky governor. In the privacy of the voting booth each individual can vote for whatever candidate they choose for whatever reason they choose, or for no reason at all. If Cameron asks people to vote for him as a referendum on Biden, and, they do vote for that reason then you are simply wrong.

So it’s a referendum on Biden for some people and one on Beshear for others.

Beshear should win but if he doesn't you might be able to credit the clowns in DC today. And unlike BLM (which had decent public support in polls), this will have almost done.

the protesters were literally calling for a ceasefire, which has 66% approval in the u.s., including majority support among both independents and republicans. and if you seriously think that the deciding factor in kentuckians' minds while they are voting for governor is the fact that a bunch of people waved a palestinian flag in washington dc then i am begging you to please touch some grass.

This an example of a nuanced view towards HAMAS. Bashear has a nuanced view of Biden, who in turn has a nuanced view of the squad, who in turn have a nuanced view of HAMAS. Waving the Palestinian flag places those asserting nuance in bad position. Many voters, including many Kentuckians, don't. Zionism is next to Godliness for many sects of Christianity. Bashear could have declared himself a "Kentucky Democrat" and disassociated himself with the national party, but, he chose nuance. Now, he is stuck.

Daniel Cameron ought to have paid you to post the above, except he didn't have to pay you.

[EastwoodS]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

[EastwoodS]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

I think this is a pretty big underperformance for Democrats compared to 2019 BUT keep in mind no one could early vote in 2019 unless it was something excused. So 2023 will truly be a Guinea pig election. Truly living in history atm.
Probably looking at 1.3-1.4 million more voters on Tuesday!

[EastwoodS]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

[ReallySuper]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

[EastwoodS]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

That’s crazy cities aren’t turning out considering they have the most polling places for early vote as opposed to rural counties that sometimes only have one? Could it mean, that rural conservatives are fired up?

[SnowLabrador]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

That’s crazy cities aren’t turning out considering they have the most polling places for early vote as opposed to rural counties that sometimes only have one? Could it mean, that rural conservatives are fired up?

It could be that Dobbs has faded as an election issue. People have just accepted that abortion is always gonna be illegal in half the country.

[wbrocks67]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
🔴Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
🔵Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
🟠Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

Any 2019 comparison would also not really be applicable, given Dems still had a statewide reg advantage back then, which they obviously don't anymore.

[Skill and Chance]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

That’s crazy cities aren’t turning out considering they have the most polling places for early vote as opposed to rural counties that sometimes only have one? Could it mean, that rural conservatives are fired up?

Long before COVID, early voting was much less Democratic- somewhat so before Trump, dramatically so before Obama.  Perhaps we are heading back toward that?

Ironically, in the old days the mail-in vote was very R.  It flipped California from a Kennedy lead on election night to a Nixon win in 1960!

[MT Treasurer]

I unironically think Beshear giving off alpha/daddy vibes while Cameron gives off opposite vibes has a lot more to do with the closeness of this race than any "Dobbs effect." It’s the only reason why I think Beshear can still pull it off, even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

There’s going to be a massive gender gap here..

[Tekken_Guy]

I unironically think Beshear giving off alpha/daddy vibes while Cameron gives off opposite vibes has a lot more to do with the closeness of this race than any "Dobbs effect." It’s the only reason why I think Beshear can still pull it off, even if I wouldn’t bet on it.

There’s going to be a massive gender gap here..

Why would you bet on Cameron winning? The only thing he has going for him is Kentucky’s partisan lean and that alone probably isn’t going to be enough.

[wbrocks67]

Noticed this in the NYT article from last week:

As in-person early voting begins on Thursday, officials in both parties in Kentucky say that every private poll of the race has shown Mr. Beshear leading his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, the attorney general.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/us/politics/andy-beshear-kentucky-biden.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket's final rating: Lean D.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Noticed this in the NYT article from last week:

As in-person early voting begins on Thursday, officials in both parties in Kentucky say that every private poll of the race has shown Mr. Beshear leading his Republican challenger, Daniel Cameron, the attorney general.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/us/politics/andy-beshear-kentucky-biden.html

Polls could've shifted in the last week, but I do still think Beshear is favored.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

[wbrocks67]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

But why do you think interest from people on atlas is much lower?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why is this race getting such little attention compared to VA 2021? In that one it was virtually the main story of the msm, and we had 1oo more pages on that thread than we do for this race a day before the election.

obviously there's more going on in the news, so that's likely it. but the cynic in me believes that the press ate VA up more bc it was "GOP winning in VA!! GOP winning in blue state!!" which entices them way more than a D winning in a GOP state.

Also, Youngkin winning was a flip, while Beshear is already the incumbent in Kentucky; he already won once, so it can't be that shocking if he wins again.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Any posters in KY have a feel for the feeling on the ground in the final days?

[Pollster]

Not sure if this has been clarified yet as I've seen this said multiple times in this thread but Laura Kelly did not lose ground in her re-election - she increased her vote share against lower turnout, a significantly less favorable political climate, and a more popular opponent.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Any posters in KY have a feel for the feeling on the ground in the final days?

It looks like Beshear is ahead, but he's really picking up more among gentrification types, not traditional Democratic voters.