Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[EastwoodS]

Jefferson is low too but they have more people

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Jefferson is low too but they have more people

How does Jefferson compare to rural? I know rural is bad for Cameron right now but if Jefferson is even lower Cameron could still be in the game.

[ReallySuper]

https://twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1721858487595028881?s=46&t=s3rMphx...

this is right at what it was in 2019 in louisville (47.9%)

sec. of state predicts statewide turnout will be 42% (two points down from 2019)

[wbrocks67]

Small sample size, but that looks good for Beshear and what he would need, versus all these Cameron counties seem below average.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Turnout looks really bad for Cameron. I could see Beshear winning by 5+, and have upped my prediction to Beshear +3.5.

[President Johnson]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

[wbrocks67]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

If Beshear does end up winning decently and turnout IS low in Cameron areas, yeah I wonder if it also is partly that strongly GOP voters don't mind Beshear as much so weren't as inclined to go and vote against him, and then add that Cameron wasn't inspiring on their own side, a lot of hardcore GOPers were just like meh, if Beshear wins, it's not the end of the world.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

Yeah my guess is that KY Governor isn’t viewed as much as a proxy this time as last time as Bevin basically was the KY version of Trump and you could say Beshear was Biden .

Cameron really isn’t like any of the other GOP candidates as the candidate you could say he was most like was Pence who is out of the race now , and Beshear’s approvals are way better than Biden’s so he isn’t really like Biden this time either

[EastwoodS]

SOS is predicting 45% turnout. Up 3% from 2019

[libertpaulian]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

If Beshear does end up winning decently and turnout IS low in Cameron areas, yeah I wonder if it also is partly that strongly GOP voters don't mind Beshear as much so weren't as inclined to go and vote against him, and then add that Cameron wasn't inspiring on their own side, a lot of hardcore GOPers were just like meh, if Beshear wins, it's not the end of the world.

The GOP's majority in either legislative chamber isn't in any real danger, either. Now, if either chamber was competitive, THEN you might see better turnout for Cameron.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1721858487595028881?s=46&t=s3rMphx...

this is right at what it was in 2019 in louisville (47.9%)

sec. of state predicts statewide turnout will be 42% (two points down from 2019)

That tweet was from 6-7am this morning though. I don't think it has accomidated for the in person numbers yet.

[Alben Barkley]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

[libertpaulian]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

If Cameron was running in Indiana, he wouldn't have too much of a problem.

[EastwoodS]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

That is so ed up

[Ferguson97]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

I mean Tim Scott has done super well with Deep South whites in his elections and SC whites are probably more racist than KY ones .

I would say the main difference is that republicans clearly have turnout problems outside the south west in offyear elections now

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

I think the answer might actually just be that Cameron is perceived as so close to Mitch McConnell who basically everyone hates. They might vote for him out of sheer partisanship, but getting a McConnell protege into the governor's mansion in an odd year election against a Governor that most people probably think is at least "OK" isn't a big priority.

[Roll Roons]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

Beshear is popular and I still think he’ll win, but what makes Cameron “very weak”? He seems like a fairly generic R, all things considered.

[E-Dawg]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

I certainly agree that there is plenty of unfortunate racism in rural white America, but I've never really seen any evidence of that racism manifesting in dislike of African American Republican candidates. This type of modern-day racism generally consists of dislike/fear of Black culture and dislike of how liberal leaning they are generally are politically. These same types of generally racist people often have no problem at all befriending black people whom they individually trust (which is why having a black friend is not considered good proof of not being racist). Likewise, from what I've seen these people also have no issue with Black Republican candidates, as those candidates break with the majority political views of the black community and generally appeal to conservative whites in their messaging. African American Republicans are viewed by plenty of generally racist whites as "the good ones." This is why Black Republicans such as Tim Scott have had no issues being elected in the South. If anything, these voters probably like electing Black Republicans since it helps them rebut claims of being racist.

[DaleCooper]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

Beshear is popular and I still think he’ll win, but what makes Cameron “very weak”? He seems like a fairly generic R, all things considered.

Generic is only a strength if you're up against a sh-t opponent. It's a weakness otherwise.

[It’s so Joever]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

Still?!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I’m honestly very surprised by the late dooming here. Cameron is a very weak candidate and Beshear is relatively popular. I expect him to win by no less than 5%.

Beshear is popular and I still think he’ll win, but what makes Cameron “very weak”? He seems like a fairly generic R, all things considered.

As I noted above he's so heavily connected to McConnell who is a very unpopular and toxic figure, even if he's able to get reelected via sheer partisanship.

[Alben Barkley]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

Still?!

Yeah, racism ain't over yet. Certainly not in Eastern Kentucky.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does turnout look bad for Cameron because he wasn't an inspiring candidate, the election itsself is not seen as important or these people are kind of resigned to Beshear, who hasn't enflamed much passion against him? I guess a combination of all of these. (However, not getting ahead of myself here, the election isn't over and Beshear isn't guaranteed to win yet).

It probably actually is in large part because a nontrivial number of rural Kentucky whites who otherwise would vote Republican can't bring themselves to turn out for a black man.

Still?!

Yeah, racism ain't over yet. Certainly not in Eastern Kentucky.

Or in North Georgia, either.  I think in some cases it's unconscious racism; while some people wouldn't intentionally discriminate, they may get an uncomfortable "vibe" about a black candidate when it comes time to choose.  (For others, of course, it's more conscious and deliberate.)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Yeah I think Beshear wins again and outperforms his 2019 margins, so about Beshear +3. Maybe even more if rural GOP turnout is still very abysmal. Cameron +2 is definitely not happening tonight.