OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[wbrocks67]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

[wbrocks67]

Objectively I could see Ryan gaining ground right now.

Vance only raised $1M himself in Q2 - and then his joint fundraising committee raised another $1.2M. Still, that's $2.2M compared to the $9.1M Ryan raised.

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1547755814445727749

Not only that, but I'd have find the tweet - I think I saw that Ryan has been up with ads since the primary and has already dumped something like $6M on TV ads. Meanwhile, Vance has been totally dark on the airwaves.

So yeah, at this point in time, Ryan unsurprisingly has some of the upper hand since he's defining himself/Vance early while Vance is nowhere to be found

[ProgressiveModerate]

Objectively I could see Ryan gaining ground right now.

Vance only raised $1M himself in Q2 - and then his joint fundraising committee raised another $1.2M. Still, that's $2.2M compared to the $9.1M Ryan raised.

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1547755814445727749

Not only that, but I'd have find the tweet - I think I saw that Ryan has been up with ads since the primary and has already dumped something like $6M on TV ads. Meanwhile, Vance has been totally dark on the airwaves.

So yeah, at this point in time, Ryan unsurprisingly has some of the upper hand since he's defining himself/Vance early while Vance is nowhere to be found

Vance has the most important upper hand of the state being Trump + 8. Ryan has more than enough money given the importance of his race

[Pollster]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

[wbrocks67]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

Interesting. So someone like Elissa Slotkin is likely polling well because they've been forced to defend their brand for a few cycles now, while someone in a traditionally Likely D slot (maybe someone like Jennifer Wexton) is used to not doing as much, and losing a bit of ground?

It would seem as though swing voters/competitive district "moderates" seem to be okay with separating their reps from the national party/Biden right now, while possible voter apathy is higher in bluer districts?

[wesmoorenerd]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

Interesting. So someone like Elissa Slotkin is likely polling well because they've been forced to defend their brand for a few cycles now, while someone in a traditionally Likely D slot (maybe someone like Jennifer Wexton) is used to not doing as much, and losing a bit of ground?

It would seem as though swing voters/competitive district "moderates" seem to be okay with separating their reps from the national party/Biden right now, while possible voter apathy is higher in bluer districts?

Wexton probably isn't the best example, since she was recently elected and defeated an incumbent in order to do so. I figure we're talking about people like Dina Titus, Sanford Bishop, and Joe Courtney -- longtime incumbents who haven't seen a competitive race in ages but who no longer have the luxury of resting on their laurels.

[Pollster]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

What else are you seeing? Can you give us any general insights?

One of the more interesting patterns we've started to pick up on is "frontline" Democrats are polling extraordinarily well right now (even in Trump seats) while many backbenchers in Biden +6-12 seats are polling the way you would be expecting frontliners to poll. The takeaway here is clearly that many backbenchers have lower name ID and have established less personal branding/separation from the national party than members in traditionally competitive seats. Most have plenty of money and face similarly undefined Republicans so would still rather be them than their opponents right now, but these are the types of races that can slip away fast.

Interesting. So someone like Elissa Slotkin is likely polling well because they've been forced to defend their brand for a few cycles now, while someone in a traditionally Likely D slot (maybe someone like Jennifer Wexton) is used to not doing as much, and losing a bit of ground?

It would seem as though swing voters/competitive district "moderates" seem to be okay with separating their reps from the national party/Biden right now, while possible voter apathy is higher in bluer districts?

Wexton probably isn't the best example, since she was recently elected and defeated an incumbent in order to do so. I figure we're talking about people like Dina Titus, Sanford Bishop, and Joe Courtney -- longtime incumbents who haven't seen a competitive race in ages but who no longer have the luxury of resting on their laurels.

Yeah - both of you are on the right track. The task for these folks is to raise their favorables/their opponents' unfavorables before their opponent/GOP groups do the reverse. This is especially challenging in media markets that are home to multiple competitive races and where ad space is harder and harder to come by the closer you get to election day.

Vance and apparently Majewski seem to be making that task easier for Ryan and Kaptur.

[wbrocks67]

here's the concrete info - https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1548250998484807683

confirms Ryan has spent $6.4M on TV, Vance $0

[wbrocks67]

in terms of actual campaign operations, Vance may actually be running the worst campaign of the cycle

https://twitter.com/JimSwiftDC/status/1550216465302839297

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm surprised at how blase republicans are at their candidate not even running a campagin in a state that already has a dem senator.

Ceding control of the narrative to the Ryan camp can very easily backfire.

[NewYorkExpress]

in terms of actual campaign operations, Vance may actually be running the worst campaign of the cycle

https://twitter.com/JimSwiftDC/status/1550216465302839297

I don't know, Dr. Oz is giving him some stiff competition.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I mean like republicans are going Ohio is safe-R but trends aren't ironclad. Look Mike Garcia, Young Kim and Michelle steale who all win elections in districts with sharp trends against their party under unfavorable national enviorments

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean like republicans are going Ohio is safe-R but trends aren't ironclad. Look Mike Garcia, Young Kim and Michelle steale who all win elections in districts with sharp trends against their party under unfavorable national enviorments

Winning a single House CD and a state with 15 of them are 2 different things, especially since Ohio is quite a polarized state. Also Steeles district wants all that blue in 2020 and only very narrowly went to Biden.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I mean like republicans are going Ohio is safe-R but trends aren't ironclad. Look Mike Garcia, Young Kim and Michelle steale who all win elections in districts with sharp trends against their party under unfavorable national enviorments

Winning a single House CD and a state with 15 of them are 2 different things, especially since Ohio is quite a polarized state. Also Steeles district wants all that blue in 2020 and only very narrowly went to Biden.

Maybe Steele was a bad example but Garcias district was twice as blue as OH was red, and trending about just as rapidly but he still managed to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean like republicans are going Ohio is safe-R but trends aren't ironclad. Look Mike Garcia, Young Kim and Michelle steale who all win elections in districts with sharp trends against their party under unfavorable national enviorments

Winning a single House CD and a state with 15 of them are 2 different things, especially since Ohio is quite a polarized state. Also Steeles district wants all that blue in 2020 and only very narrowly went to Biden.

Maybe Steele was a bad example but Garcias district was twice as blue as OH was red, and trending about just as rapidly but he still managed to win.

Twice as blue as Ohio is red…?

Where are you getting that’s statistic.

Also consider Biden already lost OH by 8 in a pretty favourable environment. In an unfavorable environment the baseline will be worse

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean like republicans are going Ohio is safe-R but trends aren't ironclad. Look Mike Garcia, Young Kim and Michelle steale who all win elections in districts with sharp trends against their party under unfavorable national enviorments

Winning a single House CD and a state with 15 of them are 2 different things, especially since Ohio is quite a polarized state. Also Steeles district wants all that blue in 2020 and only very narrowly went to Biden.

Maybe Steele was a bad example but Garcias district was twice as blue as OH was red, and trending about just as rapidly but he still managed to win.

Twice as blue as Ohio is red…?

Where are you getting that’s statistic.

Also consider Biden already lost OH by 8 in a pretty favourable environment. In an unfavorable environment the baseline will be worse

Sherrod Brown won OH in 2018 in a blue Environment why do users keep taking 2020 there wasn't a Sebate race in 2020 and there is 12 percent Blk in the state

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

Good to see a return to the correct belief that the campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day. Summer politics is such a nuisance that it should be prohibited.

[ModerateRadical]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

Good to see a return to the correct belief that the campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day. Summer politics is such a nuisance that it should be prohibited.

Maybe it's a bit overhyped, but it can definitely help out in close races. Rick Scott essentially campaigned unopposed for months in 2018 before Bill Nelson did much of anything, and it probably helped swing the race. All that said, Ohio isn't Florida, and it probably isn't enough to change the race. Suburban shifts towards Democrats are more than counterbalanced by the party losing ground in eastern OH and along Lake Erie.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-the-gop-freakout-over-jd-vances-senate-campaign?ref=home

Interesting article about JD Vance's dumpster fire of a campaign.

Good to see a return to the correct belief that the campaign doesn’t start until Labor Day. Summer politics is such a nuisance that it should be prohibited.

True, but if Ryan keeps on blasting Vance and defining him (and himself) all summer over the airwaves with no response to Vance, that is going to be extremely detrimental for Vance to come back from.

Especially in a moment where gas prices and inflation may actually continue to keep going down, so Vance should be hitting Ryan *right now* while these things are as big of an issue as they may be for the rest of the year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait for Senator Ryan

[Yoda]

I have neither seen nor heard a single Vance ad since the primary. I don't think I've heard of him stumping anywhere either. Even going by the conventional wisdom that summer is a sleepy time for campaigns/voters aren't paying attention yet, it's kinda bizarre how quiet he's been. I do hope it continues though; I literally can't stand hearing his voice.

[Pollster]

This race is quickly turning into Blunt vs. Kander 2.0, except the Republicans this time benefit from neither incumbency nor Presidential year turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

It really wasn’t hard to see this coming, and GOP primary voters, Trump, and Rick Scott (for categorically refusing to involve the party apparatus in primaries) all deserve part of the blame here — you’d have to go back to 2012 to find a group of Republican candidates this prone to throwing away extremely winnable Senate races in a year in which a 'windowless basement' strategy would already do the job. Anyone with a modicum of experience/paying even minimal attention to these candidates could have told you months ago that people like Vance or Oz would substantially underperform generic R in a general election, although even I didn’t exactly expect Vance's campaign to be literally non-existent (honestly something of a first).

This race is quickly turning into Blunt vs. Kander 2.0, except the Republicans this time benefit from neither incumbency nor Presidential year turnout.

I thought of that analogy today, actually — fun coincidence. In Blunt's case, I don’t think incumbency was a net advantage, however.

[Pollster]

This race is quickly turning into Blunt vs. Kander 2.0, except the Republicans this time benefit from neither incumbency nor Presidential year turnout.

I thought of that analogy today, actually — fun coincidence. In Blunt's case, I don’t think incumbency was a net advantage, however.

Incumbency advantage in the barest sense, basically that it was easier for him to get free media coverage and to use Congressional-sponsored travel around the state as de facto campaign events. These things count!