PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Continential]

Meanwhile, on Mastriano's social media...

https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1559478904099946499

wtf does this mean

[Continential]

Anyone else annoyed by the barrage of anti-Mastriano ads on youtube? I don't watch anything political but every other ad is a anti-Mastriano ad and it is starting to get very annoying.

I mean, an annoying ad or Pennsylvania becoming a dumpster fire if Mastriano wins. I think I'll take the ads.

Fair enough, but it is annoying to see the same ad ad-nauseum and I hope the Shapiro campaign will diversify their ads so they won't get stale and start to annoy people.

Considering how inundated I was with Ciatarelli ads last year, I'd be more than happy to take a barrage of Democratic ads ad nauseum to make up for that.

Yeah I understand you.

Which ad is it if I may ask?

It's the ad about Mastriano and how he wants to overturn the 2020 election or something like that. It stopped playing the day after I made that post.

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano wants to be Trump so badly but it comes off so flat. He has zero charisma and the audience was sporadically into what he was saying, but didn't really seem that engaged

It's also kind of laughable that he goes after Shapiro's record when objectively, Shapiro has quite a bit of solid nonpartisan achievements during his tenure as AG (especially the catholic church one)

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1560734256032354306

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1560733011536187393

[President Johnson]

The guy literally has zero charisma, lmao. He just comes off like someone who was forced to give a scripted speech a throw a bunch of lame punches.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI, PA are just as over as IA MO and TX

There is no coming back from 15 pts down

[politicallefty]

He's creeped me out since I first saw him. I swear that every time I look at him he looks like he came out of the Third Reich. I suppose it's just a vibe, but he really does make me uncomfortable in a way few do.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He's creeped me out since I first saw him. I swear that every time I look at him he looks like he came out of the Third Reich. I suppose it's just a vibe, but he really does make me uncomfortable in a way few do.

Well, given that he's Italian, he is more of an Italian PNF member.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1561387416740585472

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Yep. Mastriano is an even worse candidate than Wagner, which is certainly saying something.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

It definitely seemed like it was going to be for awhile, and perhaps still could be, but they're doing their damnedest to waste it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

[Roll Roons]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

He still would have lost.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

It'd honestly be intersting to see where this race would stand if Toomey stayed. Toomey was pretty good about staying on the download and coming across as relatively moderate without taking votes that piss off a significant chunk of his base. Just look at his overperformance of Clinton in many stereotypically high-education well do to suburbs around Philly. This arguably was the difference for him in 2016 as he had a pretty consistent underperformance of Trump in most rural areas (due to downballot lag, McGinty really didn't have any specific appeal).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

It'd honestly be intersting to see where this race would stand if Toomey stayed. Toomey was pretty good about staying on the download and coming across as relatively moderate without taking votes that piss off a significant chunk of his base. Just look at his overperformance of Clinton in many stereotypically high-education well do to suburbs around Philly. This arguably was the difference for him in 2016 as he had a pretty consistent underperformance of Trump in most rural areas (due to downballot lag, McGinty really didn't have any specific appeal).

He most recently had a -7 net approval rating.

[sting in the rafters]

Ah s______

Former President Trump will be headed back to Pennsylvania in September to hold a rally in support of gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano (R) and Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz (R) several months ahead of the midterms. An advisory through Trump’s Save America PAC said Trump would hold a rally with Mastriano and Oz on Sept. 3 in eastern Wilkes-Barre, Pa.

https://twitter.com/frankiemuniz/status/448624831315988480?lang=en
Welp, the political college football tailgate is back on tour. The GOP already feeling the need to break out the big guns provides a slight silver lining. Just remember folks, Shapiro should run on "Do you want to send your kid to a decent school/invest in sustainable infrastructure to weather future inflationary shocks" because "Do you want Trump back?" is NOT current a winning issue for PA Democrats.

[TML]

[...]
Just remember folks, Shapiro should run on "Do you want to send your kid to a decent school/invest in sustainable infrastructure to weather future inflationary shocks" because "Do you want Trump back?" is NOT current a winning issue for PA Democrats.

I agree with the idea of running on economic issues instead of over-focusing on Trump, but I also think the degree to which focusing on Trump may be successful also depends on the degree to which Trump himself gets involved in any given race. For example, in last year's Virginia gubernatorial election, aside from endorsing the Republican nominee, Trump actually kept a relatively low profile for most of that contest, which negated the Democratic nominee's Trump-centric strategy - had Trump increased his involvement in that race, it might have tipped the race the other way. Likewise, for this year's contests (at all levels), if Trump were to inject himself heavily in any given race, that could have a direct effect on the likelihood of his candidates winning/losing, depending on his popularity in said state and/or district.

[sting in the rafters]

I agree with the idea of running on economic issues instead of over-focusing on Trump, but I also think the degree to which focusing on Trump may be successful also depends on the degree to which Trump himself gets involved in any given race. For example, in last year's Virginia gubernatorial election, aside from endorsing the Republican nominee, Trump actually kept a relatively low profile for most of that contest, which negated the Democratic nominee's Trump-centric strategy - had Trump increased his involvement in that race, it might have tipped the race the other way. Likewise, for this year's contests (at all levels), if Trump were to inject himself heavily in any given race, that could have a direct effect on the likelihood of his candidates winning/losing, depending on his popularity in said state and/or district.

It's not even necessarily economics; Sure he could talk about his continued fight for prevailing wage increases. He could also bring up his office  brokering an agreement between UPitt and Highmark to protect nearly 2 million Terrible Towel wavers' healthcare access. He could discuss his continued crackdowns on both the multi-billion dollar pill mills and street-level Alpo Martinez imitators who've ravaged our most vulnerable communities to assuage any fears he's soft on crime. He could even go negative on abortion; Pennsyltuckian Conservadems disproportionately go "mostly illegal" in the 4-way survey but they're 20-week ban people not the absolutist line Mast is pushing.

Shapiro demonstrated his strength w/those ancestral Dems who crossed over for the Don in both 2016 and 2020. He'll need to again given how turnout dynamics seem to shape up this fall. I've referenced Big T's massive acceleration of PA's voter registration trends (thus both major parties' ideological composition due to closed primaries), and we don't need to remind those remaining dinocrats why all their friends changed sides.

Edit: I've now realized....... good googly moogly what ads/attacks do Shapiro's donors want him to make?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was bound to get close only Bob Casey Jr wins by 9 pts and he probably wins by 5 against McCormick in 24 he isn't gonna win by his usual amount but still wins because McCormick isn't running against Fetterman next time Bob Casey is a blue dog not a Fetterman socialist

[wbrocks67]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

It'd honestly be intersting to see where this race would stand if Toomey stayed. Toomey was pretty good about staying on the download and coming across as relatively moderate without taking votes that piss off a significant chunk of his base. Just look at his overperformance of Clinton in many stereotypically high-education well do to suburbs around Philly. This arguably was the difference for him in 2016 as he had a pretty consistent underperformance of Trump in most rural areas (due to downballot lag, McGinty really didn't have any specific appeal).

He most recently had a -7 net approval rating.

Yeah, I'd have major doubts on Toomey's chances now. It's the same thing as with Rubio, Johnson, etc. Toomey would not have been the same candidate he was in 2016 basically pre-Trump era. Democrats who voted for him clearly soured on him and he was bogged down with negative favorables and approvals basically 2016 onwards. He's not a whackjob like Johnson, but his appeal (or fake appeal tbh) pre-2016 did not hold up after Trump got elected.

[wbrocks67]

Instructive, and not surprising. Mastriano's completely extremist abortion views are turning him off even to some voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

And as suspected, likely politically toxic in the suburbs.

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1561663269009489922

[jd7171]

Has anyone read about]Mastriano’s  plan for education….it’s horrible and Shapiro should be hammering about it on the airwaves.  https://pennlive.com/opinion/2022/07/doug-mastriano-wants-to-cut-school-funding-by-billions-opinion.html Here’s an article, it’s an opinion piece about it being bad but lists some details.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Has anyone read about]Mastriano’s  plan for education….it’s horrible and Shapiro should be hammering about it on the airwaves.  https://pennlive.com/opinion/2022/07/doug-mastriano-wants-to-cut-school-funding-by-billions-opinion.html Here’s an article, it’s an opinion piece about it being bad but lists some details.

That would be extremely effective. It worked against Tom Corbett that's for sure