PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

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Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale (dangerous fascist freak) running for Governor, his brother Sean is running for Senate.

from the Inquirer

How exactly does that happen?

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https://twitter.com/ssptvnews/status/1394265677335257092

So is he the frontrunner for now?

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God help the PA GOP if this happens:

https://twitter.com/witfnews/status/1395099457549742081

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After all this time, what if Shapiro just doesn't run for whatever reason?

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https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1479538853576859651

Here we go...

If he does get the nomination, I'd feel comfortable calling Shapiro favored in the general. 

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I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

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Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

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Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

If you don't mind me asking, how would you vote in the Senate race?

Probably Oz. Don't love him, but at least he's not insane like Mastriano.

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Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

I'd vote for Shapiro if I lived in PA, but Cuomo and Murphy literally did do that.

If you don't mind me asking, how would you vote in the Senate race?

Probably Oz. Don't love him, but at least he's not insane like Mastriano.

I see. So your general 2022 philosophy is to vote R in the GE except for the ones who are too Trumpy/Crazy?

More or less, at least at the federal level. In state races, I'd vote for some Democrats like Polis.

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If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

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Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican. There is also one Tilt R seat near Scranton and one Lean R seat in MontCo, along with seven rated as Tilt or Lean D. So the path to a Democratic majority is not impossible, but it's not easy by any means.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

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At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

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Mastriano officially concedes with a surprisingly gracious statement:
https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1591925822268788737