PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is Barletta viable at all in this national environment??

Yes(sane)

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Down goes McSwain.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1513890088102645774

Wow there goes egg on my face. What did he want him to do?

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McSwain literally worked for Trump lol and he claimed Bill Barr prevented him making allegations of voter fraud in 2020. I mean, yes Trump attacked him but it's not like he's a Dolan type

Anyways, I know McSwain was a US Attorney and one of his top issues is being tough on crime, I think that's very appealing in this current climate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I've noticed that Shapiro is still up with positive personal ads, and the DGA is up with an anti-Mastriano abortion spot.

That's the smart move at this point. No need for Shapiro to go negative right now. Define himself positively and let Mastriano's insanity speak for itself.

Based on the polls I'm seeing I disagree. He needs to make it clear this guy is a lunatic, the voters don't seem to know that yet

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think Mastriano has mentioned 2020 even once since winning the primary. His main problem is money, but that should flow in later on.
I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.
If Mastriano doesn't mention 2020 and Shapiro makes it a centrepoint of his campaign (which is looking likely), this might have some VA-GOV parallels (I know Youngkin is a better candidate than Doug, but PA is double digits more Republican than VA).

Dude, he recently compared Jan 6 committee to the nazis and said all voters should have to re register. He's acting like an unhinged lunatic

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

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While Shapiro is a stronger candidate than the generic Dem, he is still overrated as a candidate

Exactly. Barely beat a nobody in 2020, but I guess that means unstoppable in Atlas Speak.

He outran Biden in a year where most dems were weaker than him. And Torsella literally lost to a nobody. You can't just discount those facts

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Polls can be off but usually you don't see a statewide race where the Dem has a double digit lead and is above 50% lose.

FL Gov 2018 /s
But yeah that's all I've got. It looks like at worst for dems, Fetterman and Shapiro squeak by
I think there was a poll with Cunningham at 50 but he wasn't up by double digits, more like hsd

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Has anyone read about]Mastriano’s  plan for education….it’s horrible and Shapiro should be hammering about it on the airwaves.  https://pennlive.com/opinion/2022/07/doug-mastriano-wants-to-cut-school-funding-by-billions-opinion.html Here’s an article, it’s an opinion piece about it being bad but lists some details.

That would be extremely effective. It worked against Tom Corbett that's for sure

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Oz is clearly trying to right the ship (and doing a not-horrible job) whereas Mastriano's aides reportedly isolate him from any dissenting opinions - not hard to see why/how Oz performs a few points ahead of him, especially with Senate control on the line.

I agree with this — opinions of Mastriano are considerably more hardened, with little room for growth beyond the base (which he, unlike Oz, has mostly already consolidated). I was obviously critical of Oz as a candidate (while noting that there was a relatively easy fix to his biggest problems), but credit where credit is due — forcing Fetterman into a corner with the "Either he’s hiding how unfit he is for the office or or he’s afraid to reveal where he stands on the issues" move was pretty smart. I’m not a swing voter, but I’ve warmed up to him over the last few weeks, and I like to think of myself as somewhat adept at the entire "thinking/feeling like a swing voter" thing. I honestly never had that feeling with Vance.

I don’t necessarily expect this to happen, but Oz running the best Republican comeback campaign of any GOP candidate in the home stretch of this cycle would, by far, be the most amusing plot twist of this election season. FWIW (and I’m sure you agree), I do think there is a certain type of candidate who performs well only under pressure and when trailing in the polls, and this might apply to Oz as well. It was arguably true in Rick Scott's case as well, who came from behind in 2014/2018 but nearly blew a sizable lead in 2010. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this, but you could even argue that it’s easier to campaign when you have to climb out of a hole than when you’re trying to maintain a lead, but I’m sure that depends on the type of person you’re dealing with.

I still think they both lose but yeah Mastriano outperforming him never made sense

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't know who's luckier, Shapiro or Whitmer

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

I doubt he will win by Wolf's 2018 margin. As MT Treasurer inquired, The polling in this race could be very off due to Mastriano being portrayed(and rightfully so) as a neo nazi insurrectionist. Normally, the shy Trump effect is a bunch of bologna. But here, with a candidate that has been accused of being so horrible, I wouldn't want to admit I was voting for him, especially to people who literally know my phone number and can track me! Don't get me wrong, he has a near zero chance of actually winning but it wouldn't shock me if he dramatically overperformed the polling. My guess is Shapiro +4-9
Also, Mastriano is from Lancaster. He's so incompetent idk, but I doubt he loses it

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Word on Twitter is that turnout for Mastriano will likely make the PA Gov result much tighter than polls indicate, especially if Oz appears to me moving out in front by a slightly larger lead.

So what does he want, a participation trophy? Second place is still losing, even if it's close

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Word on Twitter is that turnout for Mastriano will likely make the PA Gov result much tighter than polls indicate, especially if Oz appears to me moving out in front by a slightly larger lead.

So what does he want, a participation trophy? Second place is still losing, even if it's close

And lo and behold, it wasn't even close. Wow!