Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Progressive Pessimist]

I love Ulster County. I go there every year and pick apples in true white guy fashion. I haven't been to Vermont ever, but I have a friend who goes there every year to ski and snowboard and he says they're comparable as well.

[politicallefty]

I wonder if Columbia bordering ultra-Democratic Western Massachusetts is the primary reason for its Democratic lean. Biden ran strong in many of the traditional Democratic strongholds in the Northeast. Almost every county in Upstate NY swung his way, but especially the counties along the eastern border.

[Oryxslayer]

Also to note that Ryan would have won northern Dutchess as well if he wasn't facing a guy with a base there - that area is similar to Columbia and votes in statewide contests to the left to the district.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Also to note that Ryan would have won northern Dutchess as well if he wasn't facing a guy with a base there - that area is similar to Columbia and votes in statewide contests to the left to the district.

Indeed. I mentioned that in another thread. So Molinaro did have some attributes as a candidate because if he wasn't from Dutchess and so well-known there he likely would have lost worse. That's what's really intimidating for him about him running in the new NY-19 after last night. Well, that and Ithaca.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

That still means more Democrats requested ballots. If we're heading towards a red wave as you say, there shouldn't be an enthusiasm gap like that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democrats winning here is far from unusual. Rs have won the CD Ulster County has mainly or completely been within at most in just one election out of five in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.
The general pattern over the past half-century has been Ulster County turning whatever district it was within Dem-leaning.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

Care to elaborate on what on Earth they're talking about?

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562570140939534337

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1562285083402420224

[Tintrlvr]

So Ryan only won two counties which is pretty weird for a non-urban district. What are Ulster and Columbia counties like?

Ulster County is the center of the Catskills tourist area from New York City, so it's heavy with second homes and former NYC residents living out rural fantasies. Kingston, the largest town in the county, is the main urban hub for the Catskills.

It is also home to the famous Woodstock, so it has a significant "aging hippie" vibe in places. New Paltz, one of the larger towns, is home to the notoriously liberal SUNY-New Paltz and is the town where you might recall the college student Green Party mayor in maybe 2002 or so (edit: It was 2004) presiding over a bunch of same-sex marriages, a scene that back then felt right out of the hippie towns of northern coastal California. Ulster County is a bit of an odd duck on the East Coast in that way.

Finally, it has a long history with specifically Reform Jewish synagogues and communities holding retreats in the area going back to the 1950s, and being specifically heavy with Reform Jews distinguishes it a lot from the larger but much more conservative Orthodox Jewish communities to the south in Rockland and Orange Counties.



Columbia County is somewhat different. The city of Hudson, the only city of any size in the county, is a very racially mixed town with a large historical artist presence that continues to this day and is probably the most Democratic settlement in either county. The areas immediately around Hudson are actually quite conservative and almost certainly voted for Molinaro, but then along the border with Massachusetts you get a lot of similar culture to what is found over the border into the Berkshires.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

Care to elaborate on what on Earth they're talking about?

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562570140939534337

Did OSR just link to something that had a 'voting integrity hot line'?

I swear he went off the deep end.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

That still means more Democrats requested ballots. If we're heading towards a red wave as you say, there shouldn't be an enthusiasm gap like that.

Well Republicans lost their advantage with higher propensity voters over the past 8 years given two of the groups that are the highest propensity voters are College Educated Whites and Seniors, two groups Republicans have lost support with while they have gained support with Low Propensity voters who dont vote in special elections but do in General elections.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1562408840272007168

Damn.

Clear-cut case of Dobbs animating democrats more than republicans? Is that what we're seeing here?

[wbrocks67]

You would think there would still be some absentees to count here since apparently some areas did not count ones that arrived Sunday/Mon, and yet there was 0 votes tallied yesterday

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1562563085595844609

This account should not be trusted on its own. Neither should the campaigns, frankly. Instead, check out Tompkins County; Della Pia got more votes from Tompkins in the special than were cast in the Democratic primary. Does that really seem like something that would happen if you had to specifically request a ballot for the special? (Same story in Chautauqua fwiw; Sempolinski got more votes in the special than Chautauqua cast in the R primary.)

[Devils30]

Molinaro got an 8% boost on Trump 2020 in Dutchess and Ryan's boost on Biden was less than 3%, suggesting Molinaro had a built in advantage and still lost worse than Trump. I don't know how he wins with Ithaca and Binghamton added to the fall version.

Ulster is 33% college degree, this is not even close to the most educated/biggest Dem swing type of place yet commentators are talking like it is.

[GALeftist]

Molinaro got an 8% boost on Trump 2020 in Dutchess and Ryan's boost on Biden was less than 3%, suggesting Molinaro had a built in advantage and still lost worse than Trump. I don't know how he wins with Ithaca and Binghamton added to the fall version.

Ulster is 33% college degree, this is not even close to the most educated/biggest Dem swing type of place yet commentators are talking like it is.

To paraphrase some dude on Twitter, if Lincoln, NE and Kingston, NY are college-educated liberal enclaves, the country is full to bursting with college-educated liberal enclaves.

[wbrocks67]

Molinaro got an 8% boost on Trump 2020 in Dutchess and Ryan's boost on Biden was less than 3%, suggesting Molinaro had a built in advantage and still lost worse than Trump. I don't know how he wins with Ithaca and Binghamton added to the fall version.

Ulster is 33% college degree, this is not even close to the most educated/biggest Dem swing type of place yet commentators are talking like it is.

To paraphrase some dude on Twitter, if Lincoln, NE and Kingston, NY are college-educated liberal enclaves, the country is full to bursting with college-educated liberal enclaves.

I saw that post originally from Wasserman or Jotline Hosh. It felt very condescending too to whites with a college degree. Harkens back to the constant "whites with no degree are the REAL Americans"

[Devils30]

Molinaro got an 8% boost on Trump 2020 in Dutchess and Ryan's boost on Biden was less than 3%, suggesting Molinaro had a built in advantage and still lost worse than Trump. I don't know how he wins with Ithaca and Binghamton added to the fall version.

Ulster is 33% college degree, this is not even close to the most educated/biggest Dem swing type of place yet commentators are talking like it is.

To paraphrase some dude on Twitter, if Lincoln, NE and Kingston, NY are college-educated liberal enclaves, the country is full to bursting with college-educated liberal enclaves.

I saw that post originally from Wasserman or Jotline Hosh. It felt very condescending too to whites with a college degree. Harkens back to the constant "whites with no degree are the REAL Americans"

Wasserman is just taking it slow....a lot of experts are reluctant to admit the Dems have a 40% chance of winning the House at least. The specials are reflecting a D+5-6 type environment (not saying it happens). But from the specials you would expect Dems to win 220-230 in the House and 51-53 in the Senate.

Going forward the House could begin looking a lot better in September/October while the Senate appears to completely stall out. Watch for this because Dems are already polling great in NV, AZ, GA, PA, WI while having a 53 ceiling with NC. A Dem House surge will likely be accompanied by a good poll or 2 in FL, OH but mean little more than 2020 in those states.

[windjammer]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

This is crucial. Some on here are going to be very disappointed when national turnout in November reaches 110-120m voters.

Well this means that 2010 and 2014 won't happen again because democrats aren't forgetting to vote lol

This isn’t accurate — Democrats didn’t "forget to vote" in 2010 and 2014, otherwise their defeats would have been a lot more resounding. When you examine the turnout differential in individual races on a county-by-county basis (e.g. VA-SEN 2014), you’ll see that the drop-off in turnout didn’t benefit Republicans at all — in some races/states, there’s even a case to be made that it hurt the GOP (e.g. MI/MN 2014). Henry County GA also couldn’t have flipped from Romney 2012 to Nunn/Carter 2014 if Democrats had stayed home en masse. This is mostly just a media narrative akin to the baseless "Republicans are afraid of high turnout because they know that they can’t win with it" which also flies in the face of those special elections, where Democrats have quite obviously been the ones benefiting from lower turnout, something that has been true for many cycles now, which is why I don’t get why we’re acting "surprised" every single time Democrats "outperform expectations" in a special election with a completely unrepresentative electorate. Under our current party coalitions, it’s basically always going to be the case that the more affluent, more college-educated, more suburban/urban, more engaged/emotionally invested (politically), and far better organized party does particularly well in this type of election and performs a few percentage points above the general (November) partisan baseline of a district — it’s the new normal and not some "surprise," and I’d never try to predict a special election based on how a district voted in a November election (or vice versa).

There are obviously other factors to take into account (Obamacare,...) Etc but I firmly believe that the Obama coalition was suffering from being reliant on too many low turnout groups (minorities, young people,...). Biden's coalition doesn't have these problems as his electorate is older, more educated and ironically less reliant on minorities.

Look at Nevada results in 2014. A clear example about how lower turnout obliterated them completely.


But of course this wasn't the only factor

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1562621521935618049

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lincoln, NE actually is pretty college educated, but that kind of underscores the main point: college educated whites aren't some weird group found only in coastal metropolises or super-liberal enclaves. My parents are both college educated whites in North Dakota, so is my brother and his wife. In a place like Alexandria, MN almost one quarter of people have a college degree. If there's a continued backlash against the GOP from college educated whites, that's going to be felt everywhere.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1562930837477363712?s=20&t=3z6hFFSPDZ8wJkx...

New total from Alaska. Hopefully most will released at the scheduled drop tomorrow, with on the stragglers left before to the Tuesday deadline. Then after two weeks from primary day, all votes will have been processed that are available, and redistribution occurs.

[wbrocks67]

Am I missing something or should that total add up to nearly 15,000 instead of 12,700

[Oryxslayer]

Am I missing something or should that total add up to nearly 15,000 instead of 12,700

He caught that and realized he double counted about 2K 'questioned' votes further in the thread.

[NOVA Green]

So Ryan only won two counties which is pretty weird for a non-urban district. What are Ulster and Columbia counties like?

Well, been a couple decades and a bit of spare change since I have last been out there, so memory a bit hazy since was mainly there to visit family in Ulster County.

Had a grand-mother (now deceased) who lived in something like an eight story retirement apartment home for quite a few years where she could press the button if she needed emergency nursing or medical emergency response in Kingston.

Believe it was relatively close to downtown, since it sloped down a bit and was relatively close to the River.

She grew up as a shanty Irish in NYC so was used to living in higher rise type buildings and practically a "Red Diaper Baby" style working-class Democrats, although not CPUSA very much in-tune with what was going on in her city during the Roosevelt Era.

One of my Aunts (now deceased) lived in nearby Saugerties and had two adult kids (my cousins) both of whom lived close nearby.

One was which worked in a local prison (can't recall which one off-hand), and I believe the other was either an educator or a nurse.

Recall the last time I visited with her, the massive IBM layoffs were a major topic of discussion.

There was also an ongoing "mafia war" for control of the waste disposal industry and the awarding of a contract from one to another allegedly caused something like (3) dump trucks to go up in smoke as a result of Molotov cocktails, or incendiaries used to light the fuel tanks.

I also recall there being a large number of bikers with patches (including Vietnam Vet patches), riding around, since after was Summer Time in upstate WWC blue-collar New York.

One of times we were visiting my Aunt, we headed out to Woodstock New York, which naturally is a bit of iconic part of Americana in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

My Mom and Dad drove up from NW NJ to hit the show...

Traffic was so backup up they ended up turning the car around and driving back to Joisey.

Naturally this was a decision they deeply regretted later in life.

The small village, and much of the surrounding area catered to tourism associated with Woodstock.

I suspect the reason which Ulster County defies CW based simply on demographics is a combination of factors, including a few examples just from my own family history.