Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[wbrocks67]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2006.

This wasn't "expected" though. Most prognosticators had it Likely R, and given that this is a Democratic midterm with Rs constantly telling me about Bidens approval, inflation, gas prices, etc., an R winning by 4.0 when they won by 3 in 2020 in a D+4 prez/+3 house year, is a terrible result for Republicans.

Not just that, but if the Republican trends are real, you'd expect it be closer to Trumps +10 and not Hagedorns +3.

Bottom line IMO here is that we've now had numerous results that shown that this doesn't look like a red wave year at all, and Democrats are clearly engaged, with strong turnout in the blue areas of this district.

It's too bad Ds didn't put more effort here. Glad they aren't making the same mistake in NY-19.

There is a difference between reality and the hive mind of election enthusiasts. Reality is the "red wave" is likely either wishful thinking or people who clung to one data point (Biden midterm) without looking at other factors. Just because people are surprised by the result does not make it impressive.

Not really why I'm saying it's impressive, that's just a small part of it.

This result would indicate a ~D+2 national environment. How is that not impressive for Ds right now? If they could get a 2020-style margin in the house, that would be history-defying.

[Devils30]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2006.

This wasn't "expected" though. Most prognosticators had it Likely R, and given that this is a Democratic midterm with Rs constantly telling me about Bidens approval, inflation, gas prices, etc., an R winning by 4.0 when they won by 3 in 2020 in a D+4 prez/+3 house year, is a terrible result for Republicans.

Not just that, but if the Republican trends are real, you'd expect it be closer to Trumps +10 and not Hagedorns +3.

Bottom line IMO here is that we've now had numerous results that shown that this doesn't look like a red wave year at all, and Democrats are clearly engaged, with strong turnout in the blue areas of this district.

It's too bad Ds didn't put more effort here. Glad they aren't making the same mistake in NY-19.

The $1 Million question is whether these suburban trends enable Dems to defeat GOP incumbents in Biden swing seats. A lot of models will say no chance but Dems need to have success in OH-1, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45 to offset the losses in GA-6, TN-5 etc. I would absolutely try to destroy the GOP on abortion in every suburban battleground.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Conservative election Twitter is in full cope mode over the MN-01 results. You love to see it.

FWIW I actually don't think this is a great result for Democrats, not bad, expected, but not great. MN-01 was never as red as the Trump numbers would indicate, last nights election is Republicans largest congressional  margin of victory there since 2004.

I would agree with you if the race was kept close by Dems doing well with rural Dems on borrowed time anyways. I think the difference though is that Dems actually got better margins than Biden out of places like Winoa, Rochester, and Mantako even as Finstad only slightly underperformed Trump in rurals. This suggests liberal turnout was relatively decent and that dems may still have an opening in the district even as the rurals realign.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And this is the cope on the R side. It would be the same as saying Dems winning the old GA-07 by 5 in a special election is a good result for them.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

And this is the cope on the R side. It would be the same as saying Dems winning the old GA-07 by 5 in a special election is a good result for them.

I mean, the 2017 Handel-Ossoff GA-6 special election did swing to the right from the baseline of 2016-PRES.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And this is the cope on the R side. It would be the same as saying Dems winning the old GA-07 by 5 in a special election is a good result for them.

I mean, the 2017 Handel-Ossoff GA-6 special election did swing to the right from the baseline of 2016-PRES.

Ye that’s fair. It shows how sometimes specials can be misleading due to dynamics specific to that race. Who knew that Dems would have solid victories in the district come 2018 and 2020 plus Osoff would be a Senator

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I didn't comment on this race since last night before returns came in, and it's about what I had realistically hoped for, even exceeding my expectations somewhat. It's another data point that suggests that the tide is turning back to Democrats. I share Xing's apprehension that we have three months to go, and the momentum continuing or improving is far from a sure thing, but these Republican special election under-performances cannot be ignored as being a bad sign for them, at least right now. Democrats didn't have this in 2018, even with the races they lost. And it definitely implies that the next special election in NY-19 might not be lean R after all, especially with some extra investment that will absolutely be worth it now. If Democrats hold that seat I can forgive Hochul for snatching Delgado from the district.

[politicallefty]

And this is the cope on the R side. It would be the same as saying Dems winning the old GA-07 by 5 in a special election is a good result for them.

I mean, the 2017 Handel-Ossoff GA-6 special election did swing to the right from the baseline of 2016-PRES.

That's a valid point, although it was early in Trump's term (the runoff was held five months to the day after his inauguration). For most presidents, that's still part of the honeymoon period. I think the closer analogy to GA-06 in 2017 is NM-01 last year (June 1, 2021 to be exact). The result in that special was just slightly to the left of what Biden got in 2020. Biden won the district by 23%, while Stansbury (D) won it by almost 25%. I remember reading about the tea leaves for that district, but special elections that early in a new term are particularly meaningless for the midterms.

Let's see what happens in NY-19 in less than two weeks.

[Devils30]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If nothing else, Alaska probably isn’t a good indicator of the national environment.  We have the potential for strategic voting, a weak and unheralded Dem, an extremely Republican state with decidedly idiosyncratic ideological quirks, a really strong Republican (Begich) and another with near-universal name ID (Palin).  Regardless of the margin or who wins (even if Petola were to somehow flip the seat, which she obviously won’t), I wouldn’t read anything into the Tuesday special in Alaska.  

NY-19 will be interesting though (assuming Pat Ryan hasn’t been half-heartedly campaigning in that race in order to focus on the November GE in SPM’s open seat).

[wbrocks67]

After national Democrats dropped $600K ad buy, VoteVets is now doing a $450K ad buy for Pat Ryan

https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/08-12-2022/abortion-ad-buy-in-ny/

[wesmoorenerd]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

I saw a post on Twitter from a political analyst (don't recall which one, unfortunately) with a scale of possible outcomes in this race.  It was something like the following, with the caveat that this is from memory and some of them might be slightly off:

D+2 or more - fabulous for D
D+0-1 - very good for D
R+0-1 - good for D
R+2-3 - neutral
R+4-5 - good for R
R+6-7 - very good for R
R+8 or more - fabulous for R

[wesmoorenerd]

Would a R+2 result be good for either side? You figure the narrowest of victories for Molinaro could suggest a short stint in Congress with high turnout Ithaca in the November version.

R+2 result in a Biden +2 district would be consistent with a dead even national environment (or slightly D-leaning, depending on how much stronger you think Molinaro is than Ryan, though I don't think he's that much stronger.) Would at least be encouraging for the Dems to see that a red wave is looking less likely, although it would also be a little disappointing given it would be a considerably worse performance than NE-01 or MN-01.

I saw a post on Twitter from a political analyst (don't recall which one, unfortunately) with a scale of possible outcomes in this race.  It was something like the following, with the caveat that this is from memory and some of them might be slightly off:

D+2 or more - fabulous for D
D+0-1 - very good for D
R+0-1 - good for D
R+2-3 - neutral
R+4-5 - good for R
R+6-7 - very good for R
R+8 or more - fabulous for R

This sounds about right. I was actually trying to come up with my own scale right as you were posting this. The way I see it:

An R win in the high single digits or double digits would be even better than polling would suggest and would lend credence to the idea that there's a polling error in favor of the Democrats yet again. Great news for Republicans. Would also suggest Molinaro is a stronger candidate than expected and Ryan is a weaker one, so good news for Republicans in both NY-18 and NY-19 in November.

An R win in the mid single digits would be slightly underwhelming given Molinaro's lofty polling, but would still likely suggest an R lead on the GCB. Good news for Republicans.

An R win in the low single digits would suggest an even or slight D lead on the GCB, but it would still be an underperformance compared to recent D specials. Kind of a wash, I'd say, good news for both sides here.

A D win in the low single digits would be a win, obviously, and a much needed one. Good news for Democrats.

A D win in the mid single digits or higher would suggest that recent Democratic performances in special elections are a trend, not an anomaly, and this is obviously great news for Democrats. Would also suggest Ryan is a stronger candidate than expected and Molinaro is a weaker one, so good news for Democrats in both NY-18 and NY-19 in November.

[wbrocks67]

Given NE-01 and MN-01 both outperforming Bidens 2020 margins, I think a win for Ds here would be at least outright winning, but even beating Biden's +1.5.

[Gracile]

I still expect Democrats to lose the NY-19 special because Molinaro seems like too formidable of a challenger. That said, after MN-01, I think the possibility of an underwhelming win has gotten significantly higher, and I agree that keeping the race under R+3 (or a roughly 5-point swing from the presidential baseline) would be a decent result for Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can someone explain to me why Molinaro is a particularly strong candidate? Like I get he's relatively young, attractive, and has kids but he's not a big name in the district, not particularly moderate, nor notably charismatic.

I honestly feel like in many cases on this forum, people rank candidate quality on these lower profile races based upon age, looks, and race rather than the actual candidate and their positions. Obviously these factors can still matter but there's a big hole missing in that analysis.

[wesmoorenerd]

Can someone explain to me why Molinaro is a particularly strong candidate? Like I get he's relatively young, attractive, and has kids but he's not a big name in the district, not particularly moderate, nor notably charismatic.

I honestly feel like in many cases on this forum, people rank candidate quality on these lower profile races based upon age, looks, and race rather than the actual candidate and their positions. Obviously these factors can still matter but there's a big hole missing in that analysis.

Is he not a big name in the district? I assumed he would be considering he's been the executive of the largest county in the district for a decade and it appears that he beat Cuomo by eleven points in the district in 2018. That said, I think people are generally underestimating Ryan.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me why Molinaro is a particularly strong candidate? Like I get he's relatively young, attractive, and has kids but he's not a big name in the district, not particularly moderate, nor notably charismatic.

I honestly feel like in many cases on this forum, people rank candidate quality on these lower profile races based upon age, looks, and race rather than the actual candidate and their positions. Obviously these factors can still matter but there's a big hole missing in that analysis.

Yeah, I don't understand how Molinaro is "too formidable" of a challenger?

[GALeftist]

To be fair to Molinaro, in addition to winning his 2019 county executive race by ~17 points, he did win NY-19 by 11 in 2018. Not too shabby at all. However, I think this was mostly down to Cuomo's being a weirdo in that election, honestly. As evidence for this, (old) NY-20 went from Cuomo+0.3 to Biden+19, a much larger shift, even though it has none of Dutchess in it.

You also need to keep in mind that all of Dutchess is not in NY-19, and the county with the most votes (by quite a lot, actually, it logged 95k votes in 2020 to Dutchess's 60k) in the NY-19 race is therefore Ulster County, which Pat Ryan is executive of. He, too, overperformed by a lot in his county executive race, winning by like 48 points in 2019. Now, obviously that won't be the case in this special, but by the same token Molinaro won't overperform by as much, either.

Because I'm a pessimist, I'll say that Molinaro will overperform generic R by a point or two, but if you're strictly looking at the data I think it's basically a wash. Both candidates seem popular in their home bases. Molinaro might have some infrastructure from 2018, but Ryan's home base comprises more of the district. As such, especially since Democrats have been doing so well in specials recently, I would say Democrats have a very real shot of winning this special election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To be fair to Molinaro, in addition to winning his 2019 county executive race by ~17 points, he did win NY-19 by 11 in 2018. Not too shabby at all. However, I think this was mostly down to Cuomo's being a weirdo in that election, honestly. As evidence for this, (old) NY-20 went from Cuomo+0.3 to Biden+19, a much larger shift, even though it has none of Dutchess in it.

You also need to keep in mind that all of Dutchess is not in NY-19, and the county with the most votes (by quite a lot, actually, it logged 95k votes in 2020 to Dutchess's 60k) in the NY-19 race is therefore Ulster County, which Pat Ryan is executive of. He, too, overperformed by a lot in his county executive race, winning by like 48 points in 2019. Now, obviously that won't be the case in this special, but by the same token Molinaro won't overperform by as much, either.

Because I'm a pessimist, I'll say that Molinaro will overperform generic R by a point or two, but if you're strictly looking at the data I think it's basically a wash. Both candidates seem popular in their home bases. Molinaro might have some infrastructure from 2018, but Ryan's home base comprises more of the district. As such, especially since Democrats have been doing so well in specials recently, I would say Democrats have a very real shot of winning this special election.

Molinaro's strong performance upstate was more just Cuomo being weak and particularly toxic for the Albany area.

[windjammer]

I think Sabato IS waiting for these elections to make the decision to change its ratings or not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Sabato IS waiting for these elections to make the decision to change its ratings or not

Ratings do t matter Steve Konraki has WI, PA, NC, OH and FL as Tossups I keep telling users this otherwise Progressive Moderate R nut map will be accurate and it's not Rs aren't getting 54 R Senators

Cook certainly has WI as Tossup also wasn't VA Lean D and we lost VA and 2019 KY was Lean R they went opposite the Direction they were supposed to
The maps are blank on EDay if models were 100 percent correct they said D's would gain H seats last time we lost seats

PA, AZ, NV are certainly Lean D on MTP Cook reporter says that D's have 50 seats right now guess where Rs have 42 OH, NC, FL, UT, IA, MO are certainly in play with a blank Map

We're not Guarenteed to lose the H it can be a range of 235/210 R Seats

[wbrocks67]

NY-19 seems kind of all over the place

DCCC apparently had Molinaro +3 last week (46-43) in one poll

Molinaro's team apparently had him +10 at some point (no time frame given) and Ryan had Molinaro up 3 in another poll

But then Democrats also had two other internal recent polls with Ryan in the lead

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1559233246721974277
https://twitter.com/TrumpsTaxes/status/1558888916379369472

[Progressive Pessimist]

NY-19 seems kind of all over the place

DCCC apparently had Molinaro +3 last week (46-43) in one poll

Molinaro's team apparently had him +10 at some point (no time frame given) and Ryan had Molinaro up 3 in another poll

But then Democrats also had two other internal recent polls with Ryan in the lead

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1559233246721974277
https://twitter.com/TrumpsTaxes/status/1558888916379369472

I think all we can say for sure is that this a real tossup.