Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is that his home county/district?

Yep.

Actually no, he's from Brown County, although as you noted it was in his old State Legislature seat.

[GALeftist]

Walz was literally the second Democrat since the Civil War to represent that district. It's definitely not some ancestral Democratic heartland.

Yeah downballot strength =/= ancestral strength. Also I think people make too much of it honestly. It would be one thing if it was some West Virginia Trump+5 seat that can reasonably be called Safe D because downballot dems have been running ahead of the top of the ticket since time immemorial, but Democrats have only been overperforming here since like 2006. That sort of overperformance seems a lot less durable to me and I'd bet it's on its way out within the next few cycles.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 13,722 (56.4%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 9,960 (41.0%)

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I know what your point was. And that doesn’t change the fact it’s an indicator of a neutral environment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

In 2018 it voted for every Republican for statewide office except Walz (as his home district) and Klobuchar (who won in a crushing landslide.) Even Tina Smith lost it both times.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

In 2018 it voted for every Republican for statewide office except Walz (as his home district) and Klobuchar (who won in a crushing landslide.) Even Tina Smith lost it both times.

Yes, Tina Smith lost it 3 points, i.e low single digits.. as I mentioned in my post.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

In 2018 it voted for every Republican for statewide office except Walz (as his home district) and Klobuchar (who won in a crushing landslide.) Even Tina Smith lost it both times.

Yes, Tina Smith lost it 3 points, i.e low single digits.. as I mentioned in my post.

In a D+9 year

[Comrade Funk]

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

You're coming off as an unhinged stan for a lame Republican in a special election that's thousands of miles away. What's wrong?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

What's a bit annoying is that this is a district where what a "normal" result should be is hard to pinpoint. Generally, I like to point to Pres election results to show what the outcome of a district should be without weird intra-state politics at play.

In this case though, the Presidential results fall outside what we see with basically every other race.

For me, re-alignment will sooner or later catch up in the district leading to more solid GOP wins, however, it is worth noting even in 2020 Smith's performance in the district was not much better than Biden's despite some down ballot lag, which I think shows that re-alignment has already caught up somewhat.

It's hard to argue this district is still Dem leaning or even truly a tossup given that Klobuchar's 2018 win was abnormally large for a Dem generally and Walz represented the district and that could've helped some downballot statewide Dems do well in the district as well in 2018.

The 538 PVI of R + 14 seems pretty fair.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

How could outperforming Biden by ~4% mean a 10% GOP Shift?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

The primaries and the special election have different borders.

[It’s so Joever]

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

You're coming off as an unhinged stan for a lame Republican in a special election that's thousands of miles away. What's wrong?

idk tbh

[Minnesota Mike]

Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

Different lines. The SOS sent out a memo that counties were first to process races under the new lines and then do the Special when everything else was done.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

Different lines. The SOS sent out a memo that counties were first to process races under the new lines and then do the Special when everything else was done.

I see that's a bit weird..., especially since most of the counties in the old MN-01 remian wholey int he new MN-01. Very little actually changes so why not just do it all in one go?

[GALeftist]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 15,575 (56.3%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 11,423 (41.3%)

[Devils30]

57-41 Finstad in Steele, Trump +23 county.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

Because, umm... WHITE PEOPLE VOTE LATE!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW this is actually more of an ancestrally R district especially Olmsted County, which used to be a Republican stronghold up until relatively recently as bizarre as that sounds today. Like check out the 1996 map and be amazed. Even as recently as 2004 George W. Bush even won Rochester proper! The gains the Democrats made since then were mostly thanks to Rochester shifting...and then lost them all after Trump won the few ancestrally D areas and improved in rural areas across the board. So even Walz's strength was not due to areas with a heavy D tradition.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 17,512 (57.1%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 12,456 (40.6%)

[GALeftist]

I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

You're making assumptions on the basis that I've said it reflects a R+8 environment.. or whatever.. I haven't.

High single digits would be more akin to R+1 or +2.

Firstly that is very much on the low side of November HPV predictions both on this site and elsewhere. Most people think it will be R+4 to R+6. Secondly it would only indicate an R+1 or R+2 environment if I'm assuming uniform shift and the same downballot dem strength as 2020, but why would I assume that? After all, in 2018, a D+8.5ish year, this district was R+0.4 – 9ish points right of the nation. Is there any reason why I should prioritize Democrats' abnormally strong 2020 showing and say that the district is just 6 points right of the nation on the congressional level always and forever? This is a serious question.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling it for Finstad