Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 6,605 (58.5%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 4,367 (38.7%)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 6,605 (58.5%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 4,367 (38.7%)

Based on a batch from Freeborn County that contains nothing from Albert Lea (which despite swinging Trump heavily is still where most of the Democrats in the county live.)

[It’s so Joever]

What's going on in Dodge?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 7,151 (59.2%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 4,595 (38.0%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 8,052 (58.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 5,236 (38.3%)

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557199749262057472

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557199749262057472

With 13% in? OK Dave, you're the expert I suppose

[It’s so Joever]

Even I think it's too early without more data.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1557199749262057472

With 13% in? OK Dave, you're the expert I suppose

Nah I think this is fair, while Ettinger is outrunning Biden it's not by near enough. Although he probably should wait to see if there's some sort of insane overperformance in Olmsted or something.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

[GALeftist]

So it is looking increasingly likely that Ettinger outperforms Biden, right? Pretty unambiguously bullish for Democrats if he does imo. Even if you completely throw the presidential topline out the window anything less than Finstad+10 suggests a roof of R+3 for the HPV in November.

The Rs are already preparing the copium (probably that Dan Feehan almost won in 2020, but that was as a more well-known candidate against a worse R).

Yup. On the most recent Wasserman tweet, almost every single reply is a Republican desperately trying to expectation set downwards. "This district is much bluer downballot, high single digit win is good for Rs" ad infinitum. I was told that 2022 would be R+4 at least? How am I supposed to square the national environment shifting at least 7 points right with Finstad not even managing 7 points of improvement over Hagedorn?

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walz was literally the second Democrat since the Civil War to represent that district. It's definitely not some ancestral Democratic heartland.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

[It’s so Joever]

Okay NOW its over.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 12,594 (56.1%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 9,269 (41.3%)

[Spectator]

It would be more accurate to compare this special to the congressional result in 2020.

Dems still have downballot strength in this district.

Hagedorn was never a great candidate, though. And I remember Tim Walz only captured this district in 2006.

Walz carried it in 18.

Walz represented it for a dozen years in Congress. Using his performance in MN-Gov isn’t indicative of a typical Democrat for the seat.

My point is that it has some residual democratic strength downballot.. Klobuchar, Walz, Tina Smith etc.. have either carried or kept it within low single digits in recent years.

That sounds like a cope. This special indicates the environment is neutral.

How is it a cope to provide factual analysis on a district lol.

The implication was you’re excusing Finstad’s performance by comparing it to a Dem Governor who previously represented the seat in Congress and overperformed Clinton by double digits in 2016 in said district. And comparing it to Klobuchar’s performance when she has always won statewide by 20%+

This is not a seat that should be in single digits in a Republican wave year.

[Gass3268]

Does it usually take Minnesota this long to count? Or is the delay due to the mix of primary and special?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ettinger wins Nicollet 51.6-46, Biden won it 50.3-47.2, that's not a huge overperformance but consider that the heart of Democrats in that county is the college town of St. Peter and it's the summer.

(There's also North Mankato but the students who live there are ones who live there year round.)

[It’s so Joever]

LMAO HUGE OVERPERFORMANCE FOR FINDSTADT IN WATONWAN

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does it usually take Minnesota this long to count? Or is the delay due to the mix of primary and special?

It's due to some weird dual reporting because the special is being held under the old district lines...I don't see why this would be a huge issue though especially since they didn't change much anyway.

[Devils30]

Is that his home county/district?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is that his home county/district?

Yep.