2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov battleground tracker is updating this morning

for reference

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25)
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17)
September R 223 - D 212 (R+11)

GCB is R+1 in Sept, was R+2 in August, and R+4 in July.

[Devils30]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

[wbrocks67]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25) --- R+4 on GCB
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17) --- R+2
September: R 223 - D 212 (R+11) --- R+1
October: R 224 - D 211 (R+13) --- R+2

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

R+2 on GCB, 47-45. They mention that this is due to modeling that young voters (under 45) are still less likely to say they will vote.

They add that if young voters actually vote at the levels of 2018, that it would be D 219 - R 216 in the House.

They are modeling that <45 year olds will only make up 25% of the electorate.

In 2020, it was 40%, and in 2018, it was 35%. So 25% seems like a rather large plunge.

[Devils30]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25) --- R+4 on GCB
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17) --- R+2
September: R 223 - D 212 (R+11) --- R+1
October: R 224 - D 211 (R+13) --- R+2

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

R+2 on GCB, 47-45. They mention that this is due to modeling that young voters (under 45) are still less likely to say they will vote.

They add that if young voters actually vote at the levels of 2018, that it would be D 219 - R 216 in the House.

They are modeling that <45 year olds will only make up 25% of the electorate.

In 2020, it was 40%, and in 2018, it was 35%. So 25% seems like a rather large plunge.

And they still have indies leaning D. There’s plenty of smoke that this is a real race for House.

[wbrocks67]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25) --- R+4 on GCB
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17) --- R+2
September: R 223 - D 212 (R+11) --- R+1
October: R 224 - D 211 (R+13) --- R+2

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

R+2 on GCB, 47-45. They mention that this is due to modeling that young voters (under 45) are still less likely to say they will vote.

They add that if young voters actually vote at the levels of 2018, that it would be D 219 - R 216 in the House.

They are modeling that <45 year olds will only make up 25% of the electorate.

In 2020, it was 40%, and in 2018, it was 35%. So 25% seems like a rather large plunge.

And they still have indies leaning D. There’s plenty of smoke that this is a real race for House.

They also tweeted that the RV is D+1. So their model is again - bc of the young voter thing - skewing more Republican.

[MillennialModerate]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

If that plays out - what’s the house rating at

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know why JA aren't matching with the state by state polls and this is what happened in 2008/2010/2012 in the Exit polls why Obama and Biden got reelected after a thumping in the H in 2010 but we kept the Sen is that 54/40 think the economy favors the wealthy that's why it's not a 2010(2014 Eday and we can win wave insurance seats especially WI/OH where we won AK a Lean R race and those are Lean R and Beasley is gonna win

The same thing is gonna happen to Trump and Rs in the Senate in 24 Tester and Brown are gonna survive and hopefully Gwen Graham runs against Scott

22/26 Cycles in the Senate are just bad for Rs Collins is DOA like Oz in 26

[windjammer]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

If that plays out - what’s the house rating at

Well I think this would be enough for dems to keep the House

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

D 44-41 among all registered voters, R 47-46 among "feel certain to vote". 

Interesting little tidbit from that article that may indicate the unusual nature of this midterm cycle. 

But instead of the midterms being solely a referendum on President Biden, for an equal number their vote is about former President Trump. Two-thirds say they’ll use their vote to send a message to Biden, with more expressing opposition (38%) than support (28%). It’s identical for Trump (38% conveying opposition and 28% support).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter now we are all voting now about GCB

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

No surprise there, though I think it's a bit facetious to say that abortion is the "sole focus" of Democrats' campaign efforts. 

I am surprised they didn't include "healthcare" as an option.  It's something that we've seen covered pretty regularly in campaign ads here in PA.  

[wbrocks67]

You also have to remember that Ds are driving the abortion issue. A lot of those issues like economy, inflation, crime, get both Ds and Rs saying they are very important. Abortion's # is usually driven nearly solely because of Democrats putting it so high. Not surprising that Republicans as a whole generally are not saying it's an "important issue" for them.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

Dems lead in their RV, interesting set of polls this morning.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

Dems lead in their RV, interesting set of polls this morning.

I’m guessing they think Democrats staying home will swing the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/M_McAdams/status/1581647755012816896?t=3fdKPSXHQ6I6SFPOhFRqo...

Dems lead in their RV, interesting set of polls this morning.

I’m guessing they think Democrats staying home will swing the election.

Lol Rs are the ones underpoll, they are supposed to be advantages I'm Midterms, we in Prez, you know why they aren't gonna win because it's a 65/60M not 80/75M D Eday Ds represents 9M people in each metros in LAX, Chi and NY, and big cities in south like Dallas, Atl and Miami it's fallacies to think Rs outnumbering us

The only reason why it's  an R nut map Ds are the ones putting WI, NV as Lean R not just Rs and CCM is gonna win it's on Steller she is advantages

[wbrocks67]

A lot of interesting figures here-

also explains why, much like the Senate, the GOP outside spending has had to explode. There's some exceptions, but generally Dems are outraising Reps at a pretty great clip in a ton of these races

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1581496052133244928

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's very funny Rassy and CBS have Rs ahead but Fox news have Ds ahead 44/41 and morning Consult and Greenberg 50/46

[Unelectable Bystander]

I think based on some of the mainstream polls we are clearly setting up for 3 possible scenarios:

1) polls are correct, but likely voter screen suggesting a “typical midterm” is wrong. This would be an easy hold for D’s in the house and the battlefield would shift to Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina with being competitive in each and probably winning 1

2) polls are correct and likely voter screen is correct. This would produce the conventional wisdom where R’s narrowly win the house vote and easily hold the 3 states above while flipping Nevada, but aren’t that competitive in the next 4 states losing each by 3-6 points.

3) The polls are completely wrong in a 2020 type scenario. It’s not a tsunami but R’s decisively win a majority and the senate likely flips with AZ/PA/GA being tossups.

2 could probably also be produced by a 4th scenario where the polls have a D bias while also undercounting young voters.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs tracker steady

RV - D+4, 49-45
https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

LV - D+3, 49-46
https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Person Man]

I think based on some of the mainstream polls we are clearly setting up for 3 possible scenarios:

1) polls are correct, but likely voter screen suggesting a “typical midterm” is wrong. This would be an easy hold for D’s in the house and the battlefield would shift to Ohio, Wisconsin, and North Carolina with being competitive in each and probably winning 1

2) polls are correct and likely voter screen is correct. This would produce the conventional wisdom where R’s narrowly win the house vote and easily hold the 3 states above while flipping Nevada, but aren’t that competitive in the next 4 states losing each by 3-6 points.

3) The polls are completely wrong in a 2020 type scenario. It’s not a tsunami but R’s decisively win a majority and the senate likely flips with AZ/PA/GA being tossups.

2 could probably also be produced by a 4th scenario where the polls have a D bias while also undercounting young voters.

So yeah. Anything from like D+3 to R+3 with Congress being narrowly split.

[Devils30]

The CBS.YouGov poll is 73% age 45 and over (2018 exits were 65%) and 42% conservative (2018 was 36%).

[Person Man]

The CBS.YouGov poll is 73% age 45 and over (2018 exits were 65%) and 42% conservative (2018 was 36%).

Wouldn’t that put the average life expectancy of the electorate  around 100?

[wbrocks67]

The CBS.YouGov poll is 73% age 45 and over (2018 exits were 65%) and 42% conservative (2018 was 36%).

I just looked back to 2014, and even then, 45 and older was about 65% too. 73% would be a total collapse of the young/millennial vote. Like *super* collapse.

Which means if Rs are only +2 in that scenario, not a great look for them.

[wbrocks67]

NBC just polled me for their next national poll