2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

I have no doubt that Trump is probably leading Biden nationally right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1581948765472428032?t=iZiTctet06pSmL4cO5Q...

Lol nothing is more Atlas than a poll with a democrat at 43% in Iowa being a blue wave and getting more attention than this

Each one is a single poll and both are from high-quality pollsters.  I consider them to be equally interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Ah, interesting. RV here is 46-46.

LV is actually 48.5-45.5, so technically R+3.

So LV model is granting Rs an extra 3% here. LV models are really allover the place this year.

[wbrocks67]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

I have no doubt that Trump is probably leading Biden nationally right now.

Not much proof of that; most of the (small amount of) national polls we've gotten have given Biden an edge, with Trump having much worse favorability ratings.

[Mr.Phips]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

I have no doubt that Trump is probably leading Biden nationally right now.

Not much proof of that; most of the (small amount of) national polls we've gotten have given Biden an edge, with Trump having much worse favorability ratings.

National polls showed Biden with a huge edge over Trump in 2020 and we all know how that turned out.

[Tekken_Guy]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

I have no doubt that Trump is probably leading Biden nationally right now.

Not much proof of that; most of the (small amount of) national polls we've gotten have given Biden an edge, with Trump having much worse favorability ratings.

National polls showed Biden with a huge edge over Trump in 2020 and we all know how that turned out.

You think Trump would actually win the popular vote?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

43% favorability is within the margin of error for the current average (in fact being consistent with Politico and Yougov).. so I'm not sure how you can claim it to be too GOP leaning.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

[It’s so Joever]

Dread it, hide from it, the GOP dictatorship arrives the same. Anyone want to share a cell?

[Devils30]

I don't get why everyone is so upset, I like the fact that pollsters are publishing what they get rather than herding. If they get R+3 they should publish R+3, same with D+8.

It's hilarious how liberal outlets like NYT, WashPo have the GOP up while FOX News, Public opinion strategies (GOP leaning firm) has Ds narrowly up. It feels like a giant game of chicken.

There are just a wide range of outcomes, I would say R Senate/R House- 40%, D Senate/R House- 40% and D Senate/D House 20% are the best way to think about it.

Like a football game, the team that is favored by 7 points usually wins 70% of the time or so? Do we see 7 point underdogs win? Yes...quite often actually.

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena result among RV is similar to the last Wapo, I think they had RV either tied or R+1.

Both showing big increases in LV model for GOP, which has been the key case for different pollsters this cycle. Some show GOP edge in enthusiasm, others don't.

[Brittain33]

I wouldn't count a single poll in a single state as evidence of much of anything, and 'living in 2020 with Trump' is kind of laughable.

My emphasis on Selzer is based on its track record in both 2016 and 2020 as providing results bucking the conventional wisdom and forecasting a more accurate result. Both times, it was unwelcome bad news for Dems. Based on that history, it’s much more than a single poll in a single state.

“Living in 2020 with Trump” may be better expressed in that the ex-President hasn’t left the stage and cleared the decks for the election to be a referendum on the current President as the Bushes did in 2010 and 2014. The fact any voter can say their vote is a message about Trump, as many do, is bad for the Republicans after Trump lost and enables some Dems to vote who would sit it out.

[Person Man]

I don't get why everyone is so upset, I like the fact that pollsters are publishing what they get rather than herding. If they get R+3 they should publish R+3, same with D+8.

It's hilarious how liberal outlets like NYT, WashPo have the GOP up while FOX News, Public opinion strategies (GOP leaning firm) has Ds narrowly up. It feels like a giant game of chicken.

There are just a wide range of outcomes, I would say R Senate/R House- 40%, D Senate/R House- 40% and D Senate/D House 20% are the best way to think about it.

Like a football game, the team that is favored by 7 points usually wins 70% of the time or so? Do we see 7 point underdogs win? Yes...quite often actually.

People are worried about being burned again because Democrats haven't been showing up or been defecting.

[wbrocks67]

I don't get why everyone is so upset, I like the fact that pollsters are publishing what they get rather than herding. If they get R+3 they should publish R+3, same with D+8.

It's hilarious how liberal outlets like NYT, WashPo have the GOP up while FOX News, Public opinion strategies (GOP leaning firm) has Ds narrowly up. It feels like a giant game of chicken.

There are just a wide range of outcomes, I would say R Senate/R House- 40%, D Senate/R House- 40% and D Senate/D House 20% are the best way to think about it.

Like a football game, the team that is favored by 7 points usually wins 70% of the time or so? Do we see 7 point underdogs win? Yes...quite often actually.

People are worried about being burned again because Democrats haven't been showing up or been defecting.

Where's the proof of that? All of the elections we've had over the last 3 months show the complete opposite.

[wbrocks67]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

[Devils30]

Gas prices have begun falling in CA NV OR AZ and the Great Lakes. We'll see if it helps.

[Mr.Phips]

What's funny about that poll is that Democrats are actually doing better with Whites than 2020 (-15 vs. -17) and only slightly worse than 2018 (-10). If it was actually -15, that would not be a terrible result at all.

There seems to be a major delta though in some of the polling we're getting. 538 has Biden's LV/RV approval at about -8 right now. Fox's 46/53 yesterday was close, CBS's 48/52 was rosier.

This one though has Biden's approval at -19, 39/58. So way off, even from the Adults average on 538 (-10). We're seeing a divergence where some polls are finding this type of result while others are finding a better result for him among LV.

This poll also has a 32 pt shift in one month among Independent Women, which just seems... highly unlikely, with a gender gap of only -5 for Dems among Men, and the race tied among women. Both those things seem highly unlikely, same with 18% of black voters going for GOP or 18-29 year olds only barely getting +10 for Ds.

Throw it in the average with everything else, but a poll that also has Trump leading in 2024 and with a 43/52 favorability is also suspect in that it's likely too GOP leaning.

I have no doubt that Trump is probably leading Biden nationally right now.

Not much proof of that; most of the (small amount of) national polls we've gotten have given Biden an edge, with Trump having much worse favorability ratings.

National polls showed Biden with a huge edge over Trump in 2020 and we all know how that turned out.

You think Trump would actually win the popular vote?

He might.

[wbrocks67]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

Would you consider voting in the upcoming election…
Democrats: 87% extremely/very important
Republicans: 84% extremely/very important

Prefer Dems to control House: 90% extremely/very important
Prefer GOP to control House: 85% extremely/very important

At this point, we're seeing about half polls saying Democrats are more energized, and half saying Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These GCB like to tease us because we are the underdogs because they know we are the underdogs in the H but it's likely gonna be a 224/211 R H and 52)47)1D Sen but I am optimistic on SD, IA, OH, NC and FL because it's 5)6 percent black you never know what happens we weren't supposed to win GA either, but that's the Rs ceiling and the Ds floor but 52 plus Senate seats is the Ds Ceiling and Rs Floor

Floor 224/211 RH 52/47/1 DS
Ceiling 218 either way H 52 plus Senate seats

[Devils30]

The 90% interval probably ranges from D+5 to R+35 in the House and 53-47 (R+3 to D+3) Senate either way.

[Sir Mohamed]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

Would you consider voting in the upcoming election…
Democrats: 87% extremely/very important
Republicans: 84% extremely/very important

Prefer Dems to control House: 90% extremely/very important
Prefer GOP to control House: 85% extremely/very important

At this point, we're seeing about half polls saying Democrats are more energized, and half saying Republicans.

The 2nd part is important, though the broader picture more seems like there's not much of an enthusiasm gap (which is, considering fundamentals, good news for Dems). That said, 41-34% in the GCB is pretty much meaningless. Especially for a poll in October.

[It’s so Joever]

Hey Alben, how is that Selzer poll looking?

[soundchaser]

R+4 is the kind of reasonable outlier you'd expect with a toss-up in the NPV, especially as that lead is coming from a pretty aggressive LV screen. I wouldn't freak out about this just yet -- as has been the case for most of this cycle, we're getting mixed messages here.

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

[It’s so Joever]

Gotta love how WBrocks trusts a poll with so many undecideds versus a poll with only a few. Such an innovative thinker in the polling field!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Why is R+4 so unreasonable? That's about what I would expect for a Biden midterm and pretty good (for a loss) IMO considering 2018 was a D+8 result.



I think this election will actually be comparable a reverse-2020, where Rs win the topline of the election, but when you look under the hood, you see a lot of surprising shifts and some good news for Democrats at the state and local level

Rs could easily win Congress but D strength downballot hold up well, or even improves in some cases