2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[slothdem]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

So it is written and so it shall be.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

[Person Man]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

Selzer is extremely accurate.

[Person Man]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

Selzer is extremely accurate.

If neckbeards want to climb out of mom’s basement to go vote again, this would be the time do it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

One of the best pollsters in the country, even in 2016 and 2020. It's not a guarantee that this will be the final margin, but it's unquestionably an encouraging sign.

[Lief 🗽]

Culprit in drop week to week in YouGov/Economist GCB seems to be Women. They had D+13 last week , only D+6 this week.

Corroborates Nate Cohn’s theory. Women have stopped googling “abortion” so much and are now shifting Republican as a result.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1575109967958646794?s=21&t=ZR9WSQYnSMeS...

[Person Man]

Culprit in drop week to week in YouGov/Economist GCB seems to be Women. They had D+13 last week , only D+6 this week.

Corroborates Nate Cohn’s theory. Women have stopped googling “abortion” so much and are now shifting Republican as a result.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1575109967958646794?s=21&t=ZR9WSQYnSMeS...

I still think it would be in contention in Az,PA, and MI at least.

[Holmes]

We need to get women to start Googling abortion again. The Democrats’ chances in the House depend on it.

[politicallefty]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

[UncleSam]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

How is it even possible for a nonpartisan politico to be a concern troll? He doesn’t claim to be a Dem and that’s a central part of the definition.

At worst he is simply wrong, which is embarrassing considering his whole job is to be right about the current political environment and election forecasting, but that doesn’t make him a concern troll.

Completely aside from this, it does seem like Rs have a bit of momentum currently. Not a ton (nothing like Dobbs obviously), but economic concerns are kind of always present while abortion is really only rearing it’s head in MI and AZ currently. To be clear, I expect Ds to do quite well in those two states as a result (particularly MI), but Cohn’s overarching point still seems valid regardless of a few individual state circumstances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And here's a counterpoint view from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/women-have-swung-toward-democrats-since-the-dobbs-decision/

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos has D+5, up from D+1 last week. Useless, though, at 37-32 lol

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1575173086474899463

[Lief 🗽]

And here's a counterpoint view from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/women-have-swung-toward-democrats-since-the-dobbs-decision/

I love it when the Nates fight! Election season is really heating up now!

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

And here's a counterpoint view from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/women-have-swung-toward-democrats-since-the-dobbs-decision/

I love it when the Nates fight! Election season is really heating up now!

I can never root for Nate CON.

[GALeftist]

I just googled abortion 100 times in a row, doing my part o7

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We heard all about how McConnell pulling out of AZ was a deal with Thiel for him to fund Masters. Is there any evidence of that actually happening?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Compendium of all expert House ratings: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/house-forecast/experts

[wbrocks67]

Cohn usually is fine, but I think we can all admit basing an analysis off of the google searches of abortion is just getting ridiculous.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cohn usually is fine, but I think we can all admit basing an analysis off of the google searches of abortion is just getting ridiculous.

Will still be more accurate than Trafalgar's Vermont polls.

[wbrocks67]

Pew poll of Latinos in August has Ds at +25 on the GCB, 53-28. 18% are undecided/other though.

https://www.pewresearch.org/race-ethnicity/2022/09/29/most-latinos-say-democrats-care-about-them-and-work-hard-for-their-vote-far-fewer-say-so-of-gop/

[wbrocks67]

Well we have a worse poll than the Reuters/Ipsos, here is 538/Ipsos, with a D+3 on GCB, but.... 32-29 lol

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/FiveThirtyEight-2022-midterm-election

[Senator Incitatus]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

Yep, you are 100% right!

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

Yep, you are 100% right!

Hmmmm. Watch out for sleeper upsets in the New England states for Florida's America's Governor in the 2024 general (if NH does not stop him in the first place, in favor of Florida's America's President).