2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

TIPP (A+ on 538) has D+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was 46-46 in August

https://tippinsights.com/trump-suffers-zero-electoral-fallout-from-fbis-mar-a-lago-raid-i-i-tipp-poll/

[Person Man]

TIPP (A+ on 538) has D+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was 46-46 in August

https://tippinsights.com/trump-suffers-zero-electoral-fallout-from-fbis-mar-a-lago-raid-i-i-tipp-poll/

Close to 50..

[soundchaser]

I'm inclined to trust TIPP. Fabulous news.

[philly09]

TIPP (A+ on 538) has D+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was 46-46 in August

https://tippinsights.com/trump-suffers-zero-electoral-fallout-from-fbis-mar-a-lago-raid-i-i-tipp-poll/

"But there are warning signs for Democrats. For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress, and 40% of Hispanics lean toward Republicans, compared to 52% leaning toward Democrats. While Dems still have a lead among Hispanics, that crucial demographic has become far more favorable toward Republicans in recent years."

[Brittain33]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

[wbrocks67]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

Checked, it's not - the crosstabs are:

18-24: D+27 (62-35)
25-44: D+10 (51-41)
45-64: R+9 (51-42)
65+: D+2 (49-47)
Males: D+2 (49-47)
Females: D+2 (47-45)
Whites: R+13 (53-40)
Nonwhites: D+49 (72-23)
Indies: R+1 (41-40)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs need to be winning the GCB by 5 pts to withstand the Early voting they are tied they are losing 5 percent of the black and Latino and single person vote in 201o they won both 2010/14 eDays by 5 pts on 10/28 2010 the real clear politics had Rs 48)42, the Rs had that in April because Gas prices were 7.99 it's 3.99 that's why it's tied I keep  saying this the Rs have to win the GCB by 5 in order to win both H of Congress

Not tied on GCB why do you think we won AK and NY and Cali recall because not because we are tied on GCB the Rs aren't up by 5 or 6 pts to withstand early voting

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

SECULAR TRIFECTA incoming.

[Unelectable Bystander]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

Checked, it's not - the crosstabs are:

18-24: D+27 (62-35)
25-44: D+10 (51-41)
45-64: R+9 (51-42)
65+: D+2 (49-47)
Males: D+2 (49-47)
Females: D+2 (47-45)
Whites: R+13 (53-40)
Nonwhites: D+49 (72-23)
Indies: R+1 (41-40)

All of those cross tabs and the overall result seem plausible except that males and females are safe R/safe D (with the caveat that realistic cross tabs mean nothing).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

“ For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress”

That can’t be right.

Checked, it's not - the crosstabs are:

18-24: D+27 (62-35)
25-44: D+10 (51-41)
45-64: R+9 (51-42)
65+: D+2 (49-47)
Males: D+2 (49-47)
Females: D+2 (47-45)
Whites: R+13 (53-40)
Nonwhites: D+49 (72-23)
Indies: R+1 (41-40)

Is the 65+ vs 45-64 the reason elections seem to be the same percentage wise despite more Millennials and GenZ voters? Do they cancel each other out?

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated for the week. 48-44 for the last 3 days, same as last week

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[tagimaucia]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map with wave insurance and always was the insurrection always prevented Rs from cracking the blue which they haven't cracked since 2016


That's why Rs has a plus 7 lead in GCB during gas prices surge and find themselves losing after it was over, it wasn't all Dobbs Rs like to ptvto Dobbs but Gas prices aren't 6.99 they are 3.99 it's still high but not for middle class people, because poor people ride mass transit

[Gass3268]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Given the source and how strict her LV screen, this is the Democrats best poll of the entire cycle!

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO at D+2 this week, 45-43. Was 46-41 last week. A bit drop, but they have also have a drop in Biden's approval from 46% to 41% so could be a sampling thing.

[OneJ]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

And apparently, Biden's approval among likely voters is at 40-52...

https://twitter.com/hole_ghost/status/1575106068275163136

This is a really good poll for Democrats here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1575111930423185408

Note: the link in the first tweet is wrong (it's last week's survey).  This week's is not available online yet.

[wbrocks67]

Weird, we get a Grinnell that has Dems doing *better* among LV, with D+4, then we have the Morning Consult midterm tracker which is unchanged since last week (and the week before) and then we have both Morning Consult/POLITICO and YouGov/Economist - who were steady for weeks and weeks pretty much - suddenly making decent sized jumps since last week. I assume it's just random sampling variances, but weird.

[Spectator]

What even is generic ballot? Is it for Senate or House? I disapprove of Biden, but not strongly, and am voting Dem for Senate and GOP for House. Can imagine there aren’t many like me who aren’t a fan of Biden but then see some of these GOP candidates and are like 👀

[Person Man]

Dems advanced .1% in the 538 gcb average as of 950 EDT.

[wbrocks67]

Very weird - YouGov/Economist has Biden's approval actually better than last week, yet Ds drop 5% in the GCB.

His RV approval is 45/51 and his LV approval is 47/52! Yet Rs lead on GCB, R+1.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/r8e9fgqwcm/econTabReport.pdf

Weird dynamic that we've seen in a few polls now where Biden's approval is actually increasing among the likeliest to vote, but then the GOP in that race conversely does better in that same sample (compared to RV)

[GeorgiaModerate]

What even is generic ballot? Is it for Senate or House? I disapprove of Biden, but not strongly, and am voting Dem for Senate and GOP for House. Can imagine there aren’t many like me who aren’t a fan of Biden but then see some of these GOP candidates and are like 👀

It's generally for the House.  There are a few pollsters (or at least one) that asks the question separately for both House and Senate.

[Senator Incitatus]

Does the YouGov poll really use a D+9 sample?

[Unelectable Bystander]

Very weird - YouGov/Economist has Biden's approval actually better than last week, yet Ds drop 5% in the GCB.

His RV approval is 45/51 and his LV approval is 47/52! Yet Rs lead on GCB, R+1.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/r8e9fgqwcm/econTabReport.pdf

Weird dynamic that we've seen in a few polls now where Biden's approval is actually increasing among the likeliest to vote, but then the GOP in that race conversely does better in that same sample (compared to RV)

I’m guessing these are regressing both measures towards 50% by weeding out independent voters which makes the electorate more partisan. Someone like Fetterman for example has a big lead with independents in polls. If you take an extreme case where literally 0 independents vote, it will be close to 50/50 with Dems voting for Fetterman and R’s voting for Oz.

Likewise, a decrease in independents brings Biden towards 50% because these people being weeded out disapprove of him and it allows Dems to be a larger share.

[wbrocks67]

Culprit in drop week to week in YouGov/Economist GCB seems to be Women. They had D+13 last week , only D+6 this week.