2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Holmes]

Whoever gave my that advice putting Olowakandi on IGNORE - many thanks from me

No worries, I’m (we’re?) glad it helped.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Whoever gave my that advice putting Olowakandi on IGNORE - many thanks from me

No worries, I’m (we’re?) glad it helped.

The supreme irony here is I have 2016 on ignore but not Olawakandi because at least Olawakandi is entertaining.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

You're saying this right after it came out that Herschel Walker paid someone to get an abortion and after Mehmet Oz was credibly accused of killing dogs?

[Person Man]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

You're saying this right after it came out that Herschel Walker paid someone to get an abortion and after Mehmet Oz was credibly accused of killing dogs?

I mean, I guess if  the collapse is still happening, Democrats can credibly blame the media if they get thoroughly swept out of office next month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

You're saying this right after it came out that Herschel Walker paid someone to get an abortion and after Mehmet Oz was credibly accused of killing dogs?

I mean, I guess if  the collapse is still happening, Democrats can credibly blame the media if they get thoroughly swept out of office next month.

Ds aren't collapsing and even if they are it's because Hurricane IAN is on the front page of every news story and it has taken the focus of corruption off of Trump off the news story but as I said we are all voting wait til Eday every vote counts, if we were collapsing you would see Rs up in blue wall states they are still losing in MI, PA and tied in WI and NV it only takes 270 to win not 400 and we were so use to Fetterman or Shapiro 10 numbers when you have Barnes or CCM down by 2 oh it's a lost cause because Fetterman and Shapiro leads are so big, PA is like that Bob Casey Jr and Wolf won by 9 pts in 2014)2018 and Whitmer won by 6 WI and NV have always been close, always never blowouts

We were always underdogs in the H but the Rs aren't gonna have a large majority like they had during Boehner yrs when in 2010 they had 241 seats leaving Ds in minority for 8 yes it will be a small majority means we can win it back 24 before Biden is certified in 1/6/25, 22/24 can be D Day for Ds in House it's two more yrs til 1/6/25 and Ds expect to be inajotity to certify Biden om 1)6/25

Certified Biden isn't 1/6/23, it's 1/6/25 it's not DDay yet

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult midterm tracker shows an.... un-collapse for Democrats

GCB at D+5, 49-44.

Was 48-44 last week

Democrats also retain a 4-pt edge on enthusiasm. 63% say they are enthusiastic, vs 59% for Rs

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[Person Man]

Morning Consult midterm tracker shows an.... un-collapse for Democrats

GCB at D+5, 49-44.

Was 48-44 last week

Democrats also retain a 4-pt edge on enthusiasm. 63% say they are enthusiastic, vs 59% for Rs

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

Maybe this election won't change that much in the home stretch.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Morning Consult midterm tracker shows an.... un-collapse for Democrats

GCB at D+5, 49-44.

Was 48-44 last week

Democrats also retain a 4-pt edge on enthusiasm. 63% say they are enthusiastic, vs 59% for Rs

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

Maybe this election won't change that much in the home stretch.

I don't know exactly what will happen, but I do think people tend to underrate the possibility for stability in a lot of races. The races that do see significant late shifts obviously grab more attention for understandable reasons, but a lot of elections tend to be fairly static.

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ/NewsNation has D+1, up from R+3 last month

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1577302034520412161

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

DDHQ/NewsNation has D+1, up from R+3 last month

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1577302034520412161

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's just Dooming right before the Midterm if Ds we're collapsing Fetterman and Whitmer would be losing, collapsing doesn't mean red wall states it means blue wall states and WI is gonna be very close like Doomers like MT Treasure whom have Masters winning which isn't gonna happen declare Barnes DOA with Johnson up by only 2

[soundchaser]

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

Based on past elections, there will be plenty of competition for the role.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

It's only 4 weeks til Eday once Halloween happens it's Eday near

[GeorgiaModerate]

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

It's only 4 weeks til Eday once Halloween happens it's Eday near

It's actually 5 weeks from today.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult midterm tracker shows an.... un-collapse for Democrats

GCB at D+5, 49-44.

Was 48-44 last week

Democrats also retain a 4-pt edge on enthusiasm. 63% say they are enthusiastic, vs 59% for Rs

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

Maybe this election won't change that much in the home stretch.

I don't know exactly what will happen, but I do think people tend to underrate the possibility for stability in a lot of races. The races that do see significant late shifts obviously grab more attention for understandable reasons, but a lot of elections tend to be fairly static.

I mean, 2016 was swingy with 2018 and 2020 being much more stable. The morning line in both was close to what happened.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

It's only 4 weeks til Eday once Halloween happens it's Eday near

It's actually 5 weeks from today.

Oh geez I'm so not ready. 

Come to think of it I'm not ready for Halloween either. 

[wbrocks67]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

[Holmes]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

Muh horserace

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Cook, it's a 303 map and they need to move NC to Tossup

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1577335215936217089

Is the insinuation here that private polls have it tied or with an Oz lead? Because I would imagine we would've seen or heard about one of those if that was the case.

[wbrocks67]

InsiderAdvantage for American Greatness (R) has R+2 on the GCB, 46.5-44.4

They had D+1 last month

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/04/voters-give-biden-45-5-approval-prefer-gop-to-control-congress-46-5-to-44-4-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1577335215936217089

Is the insinuation here that private polls have it tied or with an Oz lead? Because I would imagine we would've seen or heard about one of those if that was the case.

I mean yeah, we know there's more polls than just public polls.

What are we supposed to take away from this lol.

[Lief 🗽]

Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

A Democrat leading in Pennsylvania by 46-40 in late September is a toss-up race. You can't just say "Fetterman +6, must be Lean D!" You have to look at this stuff in context, and the context is a state where Republicans often beat their polls/close strong in the end, the D candidate is in the mid-40s, and 14% undecided.