PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm pretty confident Oz will win now. Trump just said he'll endorse in this primary and if he does, he's obviously gonna endorse Oz.

I don't know if it's super obvious but I think we can say he's not going to endorse McCormick.

Trump has been really worried about not picking a losing candidate lately. This primary is clearly a two-man race right now, Sands/Barnette are too far behind for Trump to consider them imo.
Also like I've said before, Oz is Trump's close friend who has been a steadfast supporter since 2016. Just like Walker, this probably means a lot to Trump, even if he isn't "Trumpy" on policy.

What I don't get about some of the Trump enthusiasts' criticism of Oz is that almost all of them can be applied to Trump in 2015, but they literally just didn't care back then. Now they want a purist with a squeeky clean history lol. I think you're right in that Trump is not likely to care too much about policy purity and will go for someone who's both likely to win and has his populist style, so most likely Oz.

I think a lot of the "Trumpists" online were Ted Cruz fans back in 2016, because a lot of the criticism against Oz is similar to the talking points Cruz used against Trump back in 2016 (also interesting how McCormick similarly spread around the fake rumor Oz was dropping out). Also explains why Cruz and a lot of the "freedom caucus" types who endorsed him in '16 support McCormick.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Been looking through 2022 candidates' ads. Republican primary ads are usually so terrible, typical the candidate shooting a gun and claiming they're the "pro-Trump candidate" in a forest/the desert or something with loud music blaring behind them.
Oz's ads are really good (at least compared to everyone else's), you can tell he's from the entertainment industry with how he knows how to work media.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing that users should remember 15 Latino/15 Blk/20 Female vote make D VOTE  Fetterman is gonna get the lion share of the Minority vote

Alot of users forget the minority vote

They are now saying Melanie Trump is getting all in for OZ this isn't gonna be an easy race nor is WI, we just have to sure up our Govs the Senate races in OH, NC and WI can go either way but PA ITS CAN go D BIDEN IS FROM PA

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Saw an article lately praising McCormick and saying that Oz would lose the GE. WTF?
If I think of the perfect foil, the worst opponent for a progressive #populist rural democrat, it would be the owner of the world's largest hedge fund manager who made billions screwing over poor people, is wishy-washy on social issues, is a flip-flopping never-Trumper and is unapologetically pro-free trade and anti-jobs.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Saw an article lately praising McCormick and saying that Oz would lose the GE. WTF?
If I think of the perfect foil, the worst opponent for a progressive #populist rural democrat, it would be the owner of the world's largest hedge fund manager who made billions screwing over poor people, is wishy-washy on social issues, is a flip-flopping never-Trumper and is unapologetically pro-free trade and anti-jobs.

Oz seems to have the Fetterman problem, I don’t get the sense he’s willing to really put in the work.  I’m not saying McCormick is anything so great, he seems like a B-/C+ candidate, but the fact he’s actually spent some of his own money suggests he’s a bit more invested in seeing this through than Oz.  

Additionally, McCormick’s background is just far more palatable to the Republican establishment than Oz’s and IRC Oz has had trouble giving straight answers to county party committees on various issues during candidate interviews.

Anyway, here is how I see each of the major candidates (CQP=Candidate quality on paper; QC=Quality of campaign):

- Doug McCormick: CQP=C+; QC=B
Pros: Actually willing to spend his own money, seems to be better at this than the average first time candidate, working from the jump to appeal to multiple factions, very well connected

Cons: His corporate background can easily be used to paint him as a “screw the poor” rogue capitalist (think the Obama 2012 strategy against Romney), he’s not great at defending his background, he has told some pretty blatant lies about easily verifiable stuff, iirc he has made explicitly pro-outsourcing comments in the past, completely untested, and he can come across as an uber-establishmentarian trying to dress up as an outsider

Verdict: A generic Bush era Republican who is vulnerable to being Romneyed, but one who is also unlikely to implode or significantly underperform.

- Dr. Oz: CQP=D+; CQ=C+
Pros: Can legitimately claim to be an outsider, universal name ID, may over-perform at the margins with AA voters, can self-fund (unclear if he will), has experience performing on TV

Cons: Definitely has a temper (his aides need to manage this better b/c reporters keep getting under his skin), doesn’t seem to have realized just how much work he’d have to put in (although he does seem to be taking the campaign more seriously than I expected), by most accounts his interviews with county party committees went very poorly and he had trouble giving a clear answer on his positions Re: various issues, he’s basically chosen to make a schtick of playing a quack doctor on tv making his show a double-edged sword (any embarrassing moments or sketchy treatments he’s hawked will likely be used to paint him as a sketchy moron), ultimately the GOP establishment doesn’t seem to take him seriously (as opposed to merely not liking him), the promise forego security clearance so he can keep his Turkish citizenship is not a great look, and he is completely untested even compared to Fetterman

The Verdict: A high risk; mid-reward candidate.  I can actually see a scenario (albeit an unlikely one) where he over-performs at the margins (low-info voters, maybe with AAs at the margins) if he runs a really strong GE campaign and doesn’t turn into generic R in the primary campaign, but I can also see a more likely scenario where he completely implodes and ends up blowing the race.

Carla Sands, Jeff Bartos, and that one woman who ran in PA-4 are also running, but they won’t be the nominee and I don’t have much to say about any of them.

John Fetterman: CQP: B+, CQ: C-
Pros: Doesn’t look like a stereotypical Democrat, has good policy positions that will likely excite the base, best fundraiser on the Democratic side even though he isn’t the establishment pick, has a committed core of supporters, he’s on better terms with the state party than one might expect, and tbh he comes across as having a bit low key star power in his way.

Cons: Has run an astoundingly lazy and Twitter-esque campaign to the point where it comes off as though he thinks he is entitled to the seat and is afraid of answering non-scripted questions, the jogger incident (and more to the point, Fetterman has done an awful job addressing it thus far), completely untested, unlikely to have any real crossover appeal, probably needs to fire his campaign leadership team and rebuild it from scratch (except his fundraising team, they can stay), and the Philly Democratic establishment clearly opposes him in the primary which is going to be a major obstacle.

Verdict: High Risk; Low Reward but that could change.  Fetterman could have been a great candidate and there is still time to right the ship, but the window is closing.  He has run a remarkably lazy campaign and while it is good that he doesn’t look like a stereotypical Democrat, LARPing a working class voter isn’t enough to over-perform with that group and idk that he understands this.  Unless, Fetterman’s campaign really turns things around, I’m not sure he can win the GE, period.  Of course, I’ve been wrong before and Raphael Warnock is proof that sometimes folks who start off running a horrible campaign do course correct enough to end up shifting to an excellent campaign.  It’s just not the way to bet

Conor Lamb: CQP: A; CQ: B+/B
Pros: Battle-tested with several impressive over-performances under his belt, has run a solid enough campaign, would likely be harder to effectively caricature into some sort of far left boogeyman yet would also be a reliable vote in the Senate (I imagine he’d be a bit like Mark Kelly: makes some moderate noises every once in a while, but is always there whenever we need him), very well-connected, may over-perform in the Pittsburgh area (at worst he would stop any bleeding there), the fact that he won over the Philly machine so quickly despite being a Pittsburgh candidate is genuinely impressive

Cons: Didn’t over-perform in 2020 despite facing his weakest opponent thus far, is viewed (fairly or unfairly) with suspicion by the Berniecrats and will need to work hard to win them over, is not all that well-suited to go after McCormick’s vulnerabilities*, and while Lamb’s campaign has been fine (and certainly light years ahead of Fetterman’s), I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a bit underwhelmed (again, it’s fine, but I expected better and it feels very Generic D)

The verdict: All the pieces are there on paper and I think he’s the most electable Democratic candidate in the race, but he definitely needs to sharpen his message.  Generic D isn’t gonna cut it this year and unlike some candidates, Lamb (and Fetterman, for that matter) should be able to present himself as something beyond just Generic D.  I worry that if he waits until after the primary, it’ll be too late.

Malcolm Kenyatta: CQP=C; CQ=B+
Pros: Has worked his a** off on the campaign trail, young and charismatic AA who can appeal to both Berniecrats and the establishment faction, could definitely over-perform with multiple parts of the base (as opposed to just Berniecrats)

Cons: Just can’t seem to get his foot in the door, probably doesn’t have a path to victory in the primary at this point.  

Verdict: For whatever reason, he just hasn’t taken off at all.  Little establishment support, weak fundraising, poor polling numbers IIRC.  He seems to be doing everything right, but I guess it just wasn’t his year.  Hopefully, we haven’t heard the last of him.

*My biggest concern about Lamb is that he might not go after McCormick’s pro-outsourcing, hedge fund manager/corporate shill background or might just half-a** it when that’s by far our best line of attack.  I’m not saying this will happen, but I do worry about the possibility.

[Canis]

Their was a debate between all the democratic candidates that Fetterman attended here's the link to watch it
https://www.heinz.cmu.edu/events/us-senate-debate-march-20

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

He's Gay, that's why the D's don't really around him, Obama endorsed Warnock and Barnes when Barnes wsmas Lt Gov, thats why and BLK LGBT don't have the same power as white LGBT because why Hollywood don't support Blk gay politicians but Whites like Clay Aiken whom Hollywood donate money to

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

what exactly did the state party do that was so terrible?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

what exactly did the state party do that was so terrible?

Froze him out of the primary race in favor of your preferred candidate.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

I can't believe we're not going to nominate this man for arbitrary reasons like "electability" (whatever that means.)

Malcolm is the perfect candidate for this race and the fact that he will almost certainly place behind two mediocre white candidates who benefit from name recognition and, well, whiteness is an indictment of the way we elect candidates. It's depressing and frustrating.

I've always said that I'm going to vote for and support the Democratic nominee. Yes, that means I'm going to put in the work for Conor Lamb if he's the nominee. But I will do so with the latent understanding that he only won the primary because of what he looks like.

It's mind-blowing to think that less than 15 years ago, Democrats nominated a black man from Chicago named Barack Hussein Obama for President and elected him in a landslide victory and now they worry about "electability."

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

what exactly did the state party do that was so terrible?

Froze him out of the primary race in favor of your preferred candidate.

No one is freezing anyone out - the state party hasn't even made an endorsement has effectively stayed out. I have nothing against Malcolm but we can't keep doing this whole conspiracy BS just bc your preferred candidate isn't doing well.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Part of it is the professionalization of the party - the same sext of the party that sees the primary process like a job interview. Lamb's on-paper resume is impeccable. Part of it is Kenyatta being a progressive.

But I'd be lying if I didn't think race and SO had a part in Lamb's coronation.

[wbrocks67]

Part of it is the professionalization of the party - the same sext of the party that sees the primary process like a job interview. Lamb's on-paper resume is impeccable. Part of it is Kenyatta being a progressive.

But I'd be lying if I didn't think race and SO had a part in Lamb's coronation.

Fetterman is a progressive too, so I don't think it really has anything to do with that. I do think there is something to be said how the party (and voters in general) deem "electability" in terms of white vs. black, but at the same time, Lamb also objectively has the most bonafides in the race - and the most widespread electoral winning history, so it's not like it's a total surprise that he is getting all the endorsements, etc.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Part of it is the professionalization of the party - the same sext of the party that sees the primary process like a job interview. Lamb's on-paper resume is impeccable. Part of it is Kenyatta being a progressive.

But I'd be lying if I didn't think race and SO had a part in Lamb's coronation.

Fetterman is a progressive too, so I don't think it really has anything to do with that. I do think there is something to be said how the party (and voters in general) deem "electability" in terms of white vs. black, but at the same time, Lamb also objectively has the most bonafides in the race - and the most widespread electoral winning history, so it's not like it's a total surprise that he is getting all the endorsements, etc.

FWIW, Fetterman has also faced a lot of resistance from the state party apparatus, but that may also have something to do with the fact that he's run an absolutely terrible campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are very likely to reelect Warnock and Barnes will be sitting in tye Senate anyways, Keynetta is not as popular as Barnes and Warnock

Rs don't realize that Barnes was endorsed by Obama for Lt Gov if you go on Facebook, Obama is right there endorsing Barnes and of course Obama endorsed Warnock and Abrams


RS just look at Johnson and think Solid Red State but Evers in Marquette law school poll has it Evers 51 percent Approvals, why because Johnson praised insurrection

Bur, no one has stood behind Keynetta

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/1505854581925892099?s=21

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

[Minnesota Mike]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No wonder why they're not releasing polls it's a tight race in PA

[SnowLabrador]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

Name recognition, I guess. Plus people think he's the most "electable" option, maybe. It was the same way with Joe Biden in 2020.

[Minnesota Mike]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

Name recognition, I guess. Plus people think he's the most "electable" option, maybe. It was the same way with Joe Biden in 2020.

And guess who is President right now.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

How bad of a campaign can he be running if he is up 30? Also this month old poll is sponsored by a superpac backing Lamb so it's doubly good for Fetterman.

He’s not running a bad campaign in the sense that he’s not gaining traction, he’s running a bad campaign because he’s sticking to super online tactics and avoiding opportunities to actually debate his opponents and talk to voters because he’s assuming he can coast on being the cool and hip dude who wants to legalize weed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see a whole bunch of state by state polls there are conflicting polls , the best way to do it is release all of them but they're not doing it, why is Fetterman 3 pts behind McCormick and 9 pts ahead of Oz

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I guess I don't need to strategically vote for Fetterman if he's up by 30 points. If he does win the primary, I hope and pray that he starts taking the campaign more seriously. If he campaigns as hard in the general as Malcolm has in the primary, that would be great.

I really don’t think there’s a universe in which Fetterman is leading Lamb by 30 points (or was leading him by 30 points in February, for that matter). The F&M poll from late February showed the race much closer (28% Fetterman, 15% Lamb), and I’m still expecting establishment-aligned groups/endorsements to get behind Lamb and get more aggressively involved in the race in general.