Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Chips]

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Virginia Governor and other elections 2021: ELECTION DAY! 5639

We did it folks!

[Lief 🗽]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

IMO the popular vote is still Lean D, but the electoral vote is now Safe R.

[jamestroll]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

[Chips]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

Well, good job on getting the race more right than many of us! You kept an open mind on this race all year and it proved warranted!

[jamestroll]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

Well, good job on getting the race more right than many of us! You kept an open mind on this race all year and it proved warranted!

redistricting alone will flip the Hod

and this was obvious to anyone

but has no bearing on 2024

[Da2017]

Seeing Virginia go red was painful. I was not surprised by the results. That said McAuliffe did not deserve to win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

[jojoju1998]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

I follow closely the school boards where I live and I have cousins in 3rd, 5th, and 7th grade. None of them are being taught this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

I follow closely the school boards where I live and I have cousins in 3rd, 5th, and 7th grade. None of them are being taught this.

Many prominent liberals argued for this too and Kamala Harris tweeted this

https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1162122797726015489?lang=en

[omar04]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

How bad is the current HoD map for Democrats?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

You’re one to talk. You can’t teach kids to love their country unless they fully understand all of its history and can accept the darker parts of it. Governor-elect Youngkin said so himself.

[omar04]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

The school board elections don't seem to point to a major CRT backlash

[Devils30]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

How bad is the current HoD map for Democrats?

Not terrible, the Dem party is just incompetent.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Regardless of what the margin ends up being, the fact that Republicans were able to improve upon the GOP baseline here by running against teaching Toni Morrison books is really all that any of us needs to know.

lol this is hackish. Parents dont want their kids to be taught anti american propaganda like the 1619 project and liberals should stop advocating that they be taught

You’re one to talk. You can’t teach kids to love their country unless they fully understand all of its history and can accept the darker parts of it. Governor-elect Youngkin said so himself.

You can teach it without demonizing it which is already what was been done in the past 20 years so there was no need to change it

[lfromnj]

Virginia 2024 presidential election:

Likely D -> Lean R

Don't be over dramatic you clown.

But anyway I told yall so.

but.. yea the HoD flips back next year on redistricting alone lol

How bad is the current HoD map for Democrats?

Neutralish in Hampton and Richmond area.
Rs got 2 gerrymandered seats in Blacksburg and Albemarle .


Dems probably got 2 seats due to R dummymander in NOVA

[ElectionsGuy]

lol

LOL.  There is no realistic chance of Youngkin "winning narrowly" and thus this is Likely D.

The blue avatars saying Terry isn't running a good campaign / Youngkin is fundamentally have no idea what Virginia voters want to hear as far as messaging.  I'm sure Youngkin's message appeals to an Iowa, Montana, or Florida electorate.  It doesn't work in Virginia.  Unfortunately, he's not running in Iowa.

Crappy.  He's getting good poll numbers for the environment.  And he's not going to perform as well as the polls say.  His actual campaigning has been pitiful and riddled with mistakes.  Anyone who thinks he's done a good job hasn't seen his ads or paid attention, or doesn't know where Arlington is on a map.

I really don't care what the polls say, the Dems will do better than the polls are letting on.

Jimmie and I made note of the consistent trend of underestimating the out party in these VA gubernatorial elections. That has been an average of 4 points. Polls have been underestimating the Dems in Dem states recently however. Altogether, the safest assumption should be not to expect polling error. VA is not that blue, the national environment is quickly becoming toxic to Dems, and Youngkin is a decent candidate. Those come together to a D+2 race, which is about where the race stands. Hedging expectations based on the 2017 error is faulty; for polling to have shown that race being within 3 points was suspect in the first place. Trump was deeply unpopular and he had lost VA by 5 points the year before. The expectation should've been a D+10 victory. Therefore saying 'well the polls were in the same place last time and Northam won by 9 so McAuliffe will win by 9' is misanalysing the race.

Mmm, I don't know.

Of course no Democrats will think Youngkin is a good candidate since he only says things they disagree with. But he's decidedly not toxic, which is enough to be decent.

He's fake AF which makes him decidedly toxic because he'll say or do anything to get or maintain power.  He'll lie about vaccine positions for instance and encourage supporters to baselessly refuse the vaccine and masks.  He's no different than a President who would lie about weapons of mass destruction rnd start a war if it serves his personal interests.

I don't mean toxic as a person or in power, I mean electorally. Youngkin is not a disastrous candidate electorally speaking.

He's pretty overrated here.  He's made a lot of blunders and is clearly not inspiring good turnout thus far.  He comes off as very unlikable and lacks any charisma.  He hasn't taken the correct policy positions for a Republican running in VA.  I think this board will be surprised by the VA margin come election night.

Youngkin bringing up blackface over a relatively popular governor says all you need to know about his pathetic campaign's chances with one week out.  LOL

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

Which shows how ridiculous these polls are, when everyone just voted exactly like they did in 2020.  As will mostly be the case in VA.  And then the same blue avatars will delete their pre-election predictions as they did last time.

There is no proof that Republicans have an enthusiasm edge just because a few GOP terrorists are harassing school board members in Loudoun County.  Please don't dignify this as if it's fact.

Why would someone who lives on the other side of the country care so much about local VA covid and school board issues?  It's perplexing.  I guess the VA race gives blue avatars hope.  Until Youngkin loses and they just move on to the next race as if nothing happened (see CA recall).

Herring by 8 or 9.

As we prepare for the inevitable Gov. Glenn Youngkin, share memories of Democratic Party achievements in the state before they are repealed in one fell swoop.

Thanks for nothing, Jayapal

Just preserving this post so it cannot be deleted after Nov. 2.

I'll make u a bet.

If McAuliffe wins I will slither away from Atlas back to my hole until 2023.

If Youngkin wins you stay off Atlas until 2022.

Deal?

OK.  Preserving this one too.

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

We all know it's the former.  The new FoxNews poll showing Youngkin up 8 is complete trash.  It's funny how the GOP trashed polls all of 2020 and now suddenly we need to take them at face value.  

Yeah, but the suggestion is still that if a Republican is up-they're up and if a Democrat has a small, tenuous lead, they may still be overestimated.

If you are correct though, Non Swing Voter, as I am absolutely pleading with any omnipotent force who is listening that you are, then it will be somewhat empowering going into 2022 that polls might be underestimating us this time. It will be some much needed hope in some seriously dark times. I really want you to be vindicated. I want nothing more in the world right now...that sounds so pathetic, but f*** it! It's true!

Well how were the polls in California?  And have the same blue avatars who are shoving polls in our faces explained the huge miss in California and how that translates to Virginia? 

McAuliffe+8

Bold.  Based.

A very good solidly democratic state that will vote for T-Mac by 5.

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

I guess we can say...Thank you Fox!

Yep for sure, I bet the election will be not as close now

It never was going to be a 1 point race despite the GOP wet dreams.

T-Mac will win anyways.  There is no negative consequence to taking the deal though. 

Well if that happens a lot of blue (and one green) avatar will be deleting A LOT of old posts (just like after the CA recall).  I've noticed there is some hedging now, like they realized the FoxNews poll was BS.

Well if that happens a lot of blue (and one green) avatar will be deleting A LOT of old posts (just like after the CA recall).  I've noticed there is some hedging now, like they realized the FoxNews poll was BS.

Youngkin can win but I would be very surprised (and it would be very close).

he won't, and all the people who predicted he would will find some excuse and say it's VA specific and it says nothing about 2022.

Yeah the thing is, if T-Mac loses, DC pundits are gonna lose their sh*t and theres gonna be 100 thinkpieces about it, tons of coverage, etc.

If T-Mac wins, it's gonna be "welp, it was a blue state all along" and this race will disappear from the headlines by Wednesday morning

So in other words, CA Recall 2.0.

Nonswingvoter may be hackish, but these blue and tan avatars are downright liars lmao. So much twisting, they must have worked at f**king Auntie Anne's.

Very clearly trying to just troll people at this point. I wouldn't even worry about what they say, most of it is just filler honestly.

This has so obviously been the case for a week now.  The good news is most of them just started posting here recently and probably wont be back after Youngkin loses.

Well off to go vote for Governor elect T-Mac.

[jamestroll]

I am more confident that VA will remain a Lean D state then ever.

I will write more... in a statement.

[Pericles]

I am more confident that VA will remain a Lean D state then ever.

I will write more... in a statement.

Maybe relative to the PV, but it'll be extremely tough for any Republican presidential nominee, and Biden or Harris could easily win in 2024 overall-maybe by more than last year.

[jamestroll]

I am more confident that VA will remain a Lean D state then ever.

I will write more... in a statement.

Maybe relative to the PV, but it'll be extremely tough for any Republican presidential nominee, and Biden or Harris could easily win in 2024 overall-maybe by more than last year.

lmao anyone who thinks dems will lose VA in 2024 are on DRUGS!

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is kind of shocking even if not fully surprising after the past few weeks. The writings were on the wall.

Looking at things unfolding, I think we have to confess that Youngkin run a pretty good campaign and I congratulate him for this feat. At the same time T-Mac run a horrible one. Just saying "orange man bad" isn't a winning message. That said, we need to look at the larger picture here. Yup, T-Mac didn't campaign the way he should have, BUT the fact NJ isn't called yet and so close shows you there are more difficult than one man's (T-Mac) apparent failures. It's also spelling trouble that key demographics like suburban voters and Hispanics have rejected the Dem candidate. Biden's 2020 winning coalition is fragile and looking at how close deciding states were last year, Dems have a lot of work to do. Particularly with regard to messaging, something the party really sucks at.

While this isn't saying much about 2022 since a year is a lifetime in politics, for Dems to turn it around conditions need to change. And I'm much more skeptical of that now than I were just back in summer. It's very reasonable to assume Biden will be a lame duck after the midterms and we're not getting another trifecta for the rest of the decade, regardless of what happens in 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would caution against linking this result to national-level politics except in very general broad strokes. It was a state-level election driven by state-level issues. Whatever Biden did, it would not have changed McAuliffe's D-grade campaign (not rating it worse than that because he did do some things right even if he made many mistakes), nor Youngkin being a A++ candidate who figured out the math as to how to get to 50%+1 in Virginia. In general, Ds who ran better campaigns still lost, which tells us that it's not really T-Mac's problem, it's a broader VA Dem problem, something the party needs to work on. They lost a freaking 60% black house seat for god's sake. These defeats in fact might well be a blessing in disguise by helping young talent rise to fore in 2025 and later.

I don't think this race has that many things to say about much of anything outside of Virginia, at least in terms of specifics. This tells us not much about 2022, nor 2024, except that suburbs aren't safe D (or R) regardless of the candidates and campaigns. Don't assume that 2022 is a battle decided by turning out your base with means of angry gestures. Work on the basis that you are chasing the median voter. Pander to them shamelessly. That's what Youngkin did - talking endlessly about "education".

[ElectionsGuy]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

[jamestroll]

Ugh, this is kind of shocking even if not fully surprising after the past few weeks. The writings were on the wall.

Looking at things unfolding, I think we have to confess that Youngkin run a pretty good campaign and I congratulate him for this feat. At the same time T-Mac run a horrible one. Just saying "orange man bad" isn't a winning message. That said, we need to look at the larger picture here. Yup, T-Mac didn't campaign the way he should have, BUT the fact NJ isn't called yet and so close shows you there are more difficult than one man's (T-Mac) apparent failures. It's also spelling trouble that key demographics like suburban voters and Hispanics have rejected the Dem candidate. Biden's 2020 winning coalition is fragile and looking at how close deciding states were last year, Dems have a lot of work to do. Particularly with regard to messaging, something the party really sucks at.

While this isn't saying much about 2022 since a year is a lifetime in politics, for Dems to turn it around conditions need to change. And I'm much more skeptical of that now than I were just back in summer. It's very reasonable to assume Biden will be a lame duck after the midterms and we're not getting another trifecta for the rest of the decade, regardless of what happens in 2024.

Nova stayed surprisingly democrat.

We take back the house of delegates in a year!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

New Jersey seems to have been influenced by a gaffe Phil Murphy made about taxes late in the campaign. It's a gaffe that must have hurt, especially in one of the most taxed states in the country.
But that doesn't explain it all or even necessarily most of it.

[Pericles]

It'll be interesting to see the final margins for the House special elections too and the state legislative elections. It does look like the environment has turned and is now pointing to a Republican wave. Democrats have only this Congress to do as much good as they can, the trifecta is highly unlikely to be repeated for many years.