Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[EastwoodS]

We still don't know if these numbers are from just Election Day voters or all voters... if this is Election Day voters I am feeling pretty great about Terry's chances

They contact both early and ED. Why would they only ask ED? why does that make sense?

[kwabbit]

Important to note, McAuliffe had similar numbers in 2013 and won.

Yeah, even if McAuliffe wins or doesn’t win, he’s still the type of politician to have much better approvals than favorability. He has competent swamp creature vibes. Bill Clinton had the same polling phenomenon, where almost 10% of people thought he was doing a good job as president but thought of him negatively as a corrupt womanizer.

[OSR stands with Israel]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

[Chips]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

[Big Abraham]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Thank God it's not a Nevada election and they can actually count votes.

[Spectator]

I would like to remind everyone that exit polls aren't always reliable. If these are the truth though then yes things would be looking pretty good for Youngkin.

They're not reliable at all. A random Atlas user could probably make up a more accurate exit poll.

right but generaly, they favor democrats. not here.

Initial Exit polls weren’t good for Northam in 2017.

[Umengus]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

[Devils30]

The chance it’s 73% white is close to zero.

[soundchaser]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

But we know that's probably not true based on turnout, so skepticism is warranted.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Buffalo Mayoral poll turnout lighter than expected, but local media still has the race as a coinflip.

[Buzz]

Can I get a Youngkingggggggg

[Chips]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

[roxas11]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

[DaleCooper]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

This is why the Biden numbers, in the context of this specific election, don't interest me to much for now. What I think Democrats should be concerned about is Youngkin's approvals in comparison to McAuliffe's.

[DrScholl]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

[BigSerg]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

This is why the Biden numbers, in the context of this specific election, don't interest me to much for now. What I think Democrats should be concerned about is Youngkin's approvals in comparison to McAuliffe's.

This

[Skill and Chance]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

This is why the Biden numbers, in the context of this specific election, don't interest me to much for now. What I think Democrats should be concerned about is Youngkin's approvals in comparison to McAuliffe's.

If Biden really is 43/56 in VA, it means he's in Hoover after the stock market crash territory nationally, so that's actually pretty important, possibly the most important part here for longer term implications. 

[Senator Incitatus]

Important to note, McAuliffe had similar numbers in 2013 and won.

true I almost forgot about that

Cuccinelli did not.

[Chips]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

Maybe? But exit polls are often just weird anyway. It's usually not wise to take them too seriously at face value.

[2016]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

2017 VA Electorate

67 % White
20 % AA
6 % Latino
3 % Asian
3 % Other

NOW

73 % White
17 % AA
5 % Latino

[KaiserDave]

LOUD NOISES. LOUD NOISES.

[lfromnj]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

This thread probably has like  1000 posts with the word Trumpkin

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

18 points difference in favs, as preliminary exit polls show.

[soundchaser]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

2017 VA Electorate

67 % White
20 % AA
6 % Latino
3 % Asian
3 % Other

NOW

73 % White
17 % AA
5 % Latino

NOW*

(*maybe, depending on whether this exit poll is accurate)