Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Mr. Reactionary]

For what it is worth, while canvassing in Vienna, VA, a few people did bring up fear of Tmac bringing back pandemic restrictions if Covid cases shoot up again.

Yes yes yes.. Vienna may be wealthy suburbia like most of you all live in.. but a lot of business owners live in Vienna and if you drive the streets of Vienna.. mom and pop and non chain eateries are everywhere.

Oddly.. I did not hear anything about the school board sexual assault but I think that throws Loudoun into single digit.

Virginia's vaccination rate is pretty good, isn't it? Maybe he could do it by county so all those low vaccination Republican areas get what they fear while the Democratic vaccinated areas remain free.

kiwi moment

We need NATO to invade Australia and New Zealand to liberate them from their tyrannical regimes.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454065548673880074

Good Nate Cohn thread on the Fox poll

[Sestak]

Not been following this too much but it does seem to me all the pollsters except Fox have been herding hard towards the McAuliffe +1-2 area. So make of that what you will.

[BigSerg]

Bruh... hahaha McAuliffe pls?
https://twitter.com/jengoodman75/status/1454100281449488384?s=20

[JustinSmith]

I think a lot of election prediction models (including mine) may stumble over this one. I've always felt that a prediction model's worth is based on how far ahead of the election it is accurate. I don't think making a correct prediction the day before the election is that valuable. This election has followed the difficult-to-predict sequence of being extremely consistent in favoring one candidate for months, with a sudden swing in the last few days. Right now, nobody has a model that accounts for this happening months before it happens. My own model is still predicting McAuliffe at +5%, but I think it may have a weakness when it comes to stark polling changes at the end of the election cycle. Part of the difficulty in trying to build a model that can be accurate months ahead of time is that it has to be resistant to the small day-to-day changes. An eventual goal of such a model should be to recognize when those small day-to-day changes are meaningful.

Is there tangible proof though that Youngkin has the "momentum"?

No, which is why my model is still +5% for McAuliffe. My other comments are based on what "feels right" that fly in the face of what my model says.

[Woody]

Bruh... hahaha McAuliffe pls?
https://twitter.com/jengoodman75/status/1454100281449488384?s=20

McAuliffe campaign got some inspiration:

[Non Swing Voter]

Bruh... hahaha McAuliffe pls?
https://twitter.com/jengoodman75/status/1454100281449488384?s=20

have you contributed anything to this thread other than these absurd twitter rants about white supremacists and school boards, which no Virginia voters actually care about and doesn't constitute analysis of the election at all?

[Non Swing Voter]

Lost in this conversation about Youngkin "momentum" (which I don't believe is real) is the fact that 1/3 of people who will vote have already voted.  So even if you believe Youngkin is doing better now, 1/3 of the votes are already locked in.  And it's not just hardcore partisans who vote early.  Some people prefer to vote by mail or on the weekend.

[Matty]

Oh well, that sucks

I was all in on believing youngkin had momentum, but a unionized nova govt employee on an election message board says its’s incorrect. Time to fold shop

Shucks, too. I was getting my hopes up

[wbrocks67]

It's shocking... shocking!!! to me that the GOP narrative on this is completely disingenuous!

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1454088148217171973

[Non Swing Voter]

It's shocking... shocking!!! to me that the GOP narrative on this is completely disingenuous!

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/1454088148217171973

The GOP, not genuine since at least 2000.

[Ferguson97]

I can buy that the race has narrowed, but not 13 points in 2 weeks without a major scandal.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think a lot of election prediction models (including mine) may stumble over this one. I've always felt that a prediction model's worth is based on how far ahead of the election it is accurate. I don't think making a correct prediction the day before the election is that valuable. This election has followed the difficult-to-predict sequence of being extremely consistent in favoring one candidate for months, with a sudden swing in the last few days. Right now, nobody has a model that accounts for this happening months before it happens. My own model is still predicting McAuliffe at +5%, but I think it may have a weakness when it comes to stark polling changes at the end of the election cycle. Part of the difficulty in trying to build a model that can be accurate months ahead of time is that it has to be resistant to the small day-to-day changes. An eventual goal of such a model should be to recognize when those small day-to-day changes are meaningful.

Is there tangible proof though that Youngkin has the "momentum"?

I feel as though this is very much like 2017 with everyone saying that suddenly Gillepsie had "momentum" towards the end of the race but it was mostly just on "feeling" that "Northam was blowing it"

Nope.  Just a few blue avatars who were severely wrong about the last 2 elections who want us to take their hot takes at face value. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454065548673880074
Good Nate Cohn thread on the Fox poll

I was about to post it.

The best part is:

In general, if you're going to unskew a poll, you should unskew it using data that can/should be used for weighting, not based on whether the poll findings comport with your expectations.

wbrocks, I'm watching at you.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

He also has a good thread about the Ads in VA. As I said later people here/on Twitter should not make a lengthy analysis based on 2 (out of hundreds) ads .


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096457091461132
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096459410857984
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454097546889121793

[Non Swing Voter]

He also has a good thread about the Ads in VA. As I said later people here/on Twitter should not make a lengthy analysis based on 2 (out of hundreds) ads .


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096457091461132
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454096459410857984
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1454097546889121793

Many of us here are analyzing the ads because we actually live in Virginia and see what ads are being deployed frequently. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

[roxas11]

Lost in this conversation about Youngkin "momentum" (which I don't believe is real) is the fact that 1/3 of people who will vote have already voted.  So even if you believe Youngkin is doing better now, 1/3 of the votes are already locked in.  And it's not just hardcore partisans who vote early.  Some people prefer to vote by mail or on the weekend.

Not only that a very big deal, more people in the media should be talking about it

It also shows why that fox poll is so ridiculous because Fox news is now hyping up Glenn youngkin for having this huge lead while completely ignoring the fact that a lot of people have already voted in this election a long time ago.

The reality for Glenn youngkin is that having a big lead would have been far more important months ago compared to getting a big lead just a few days before an election. These days early voting has made it very hard for either candidate to benefit from any late momentum. Just yesterday we were debating if terry mcauliffe himself would even benefit from any recent success that Dems have when it comes to passing their popular infrastructure bill

At this point there is very little either candidate can do really change the race because the people who have already voted are going to be the ones to decide who wins this election

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

This really gets to the heart of the matter.  I'd like to know the answer as well...

[Non Swing Voter]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

Question.  When Youngkin loses are you going to delete these posts and/or will you just move on to the next election like nothing happened just like CA?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1453849134885007365

Stating the obvious but somebody needs to do it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Lost in this conversation about Youngkin "momentum" (which I don't believe is real) is the fact that 1/3 of people who will vote have already voted.  So even if you believe Youngkin is doing better now, 1/3 of the votes are already locked in.  And it's not just hardcore partisans who vote early.  Some people prefer to vote by mail or on the weekend.

Not only that a very big deal, more people in the media should be talking about it

Why? Simply put, during all the election it's only undeciders/leaners who are of interested (all the movements happens there).


Also. The polls INCLUDE early voters. And they are showing, it's a close race, DESPITE that. Obvsl, they might be wrong, but it's a different question.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

Question.  When Youngkin loses are you going to delete these posts and/or will you just move on to the next election like nothing happened just like CA?

I see, you move the goalpost from Safe D to Youngkin lose. NICE!

[Non Swing Voter]

So far, you have only "analysed" the twitter-ads the hurt your Woke bubble's feelings. Thank you very much.

"Strangely", you've never talked about these TV-ads for normies

"The Youngkin ads, that i've seen, critique mcaullife on parental choice statement, and then Youngkin--speaking to camera--goes on to support for teacher raises and the largest education budget in VA history".

Hade I lived in the bubble, that actually believed, Youngkin only defends "domestic terrorists", I'd, too, have thought, it's Safe D.

Question.  When Youngkin loses are you going to delete these posts and/or will you just move on to the next election like nothing happened just like CA?

I see, you move the goalpost from Safe D to Youngkin lose. NICE!

LMAO.  Yes Youngkin will lose, that's why it's Safe D.  Any other brilliant rebuttals?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]