Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1453427317800411139?s=20

On what planet was the conventional wisdom that Northam was going to lose in 2017?

planet https://talkelections.org

My recollection of the CW here is that it was mostly for a close Northam win.  The big surprise was not that he won, but that he won by so much.

Taking a look backward, the last forum poll of the 2017 race, done just before the election, is at https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276657.0.  75 of 99 respondents picked Northam.  Most of the replies predicted Northam, generally by fairly narrow margins, although there were several that did predict a Gillespie win.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1453427317800411139?s=20

On what planet was the conventional wisdom that Northam was going to lose in 2017?

planet https://talkelections.org

My recollection of the CW here is that it was mostly for a close Northam win.  The big surprise was not that he won, but that he won by so much.

Taking a look backward, the last forum poll of the 2017 race, done just before the election, is at https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276657.0.  75 of 99 respondents picked Northam.  Most of the replies predicted Northam, generally by fairly narrow margins, although there were several that did predict a Gillespie win.

True, it was just the most outspoken that were posting about it the most.  Same this year I guess.  The forum polls are mostly predicting a comfortable T-Mac win, but you wouldn't know it by the content of these threads.

[Matty]

ALERT

TWITTER USERS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY QTRASH for a va poll

REPEAT: QTRASH IS IN THE FIELD

[Pericles]

ALERT

TWITTER USERS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY QTRASH for a va poll

REPEAT: QTRASH IS IN THE FIELD

[Progressive Pessimist]

ALERT

TWITTER USERS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY QTRASH for a va poll

REPEAT: QTRASH IS IN THE FIELD

The pollster has really fallen from grace though, even in the post-Trump effect days.

I am predicting a Youngkin+10 result from them at this rate.

[roxas11]

ALERT

TWITTER USERS ARE REPORTING THAT THEY HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY QTRASH for a va poll

REPEAT: QTRASH IS IN THE FIELD

let me guess
they will claim that glenn youngkin is winning by more than 50 points lol

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/marcussimon/status/1453511512144945155?s=20

[BigSerg]

Quinnipiac was the only pollster to get the 2017 election results right, you can scoff, but I would look closely at their numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1453522316047101952

[Chips]

Quinnipiac poll prediction: McAuliffe+2

[BigSerg]

My Quinnipiac poll prediction: McAuliffe+4

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1453510548260364289

Siri, translate this tweet from MAGA to English.

Siri: The early voting numbers look good for Democrats.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The polls were off in 2017, the average only had Northam up by 3.3%. The polls were wrong about California and they are going to be wrong with Virginia too.

Pollsters are overcompensating for being off in Presidential elections. They assume the silent MAGA will turn out in off year elections like they did in 2016 and 2020.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does Youngkin ever change his fleece?  He's a billionaire, can't he afford more clothing?  Or does he have a giant walk in closet with 30 of the same red fleece jackets?

[Greedo punched first]

Will VA-10 vote for McAuliffe by a wide margin?

[Non Swing Voter]

Will VA-10 vote for McAuliffe by a wide margin?

As someone who lives in VA-10 I'd say: YES.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1453543666409254914?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac should release an ad reminding voters how he told the GOP KKK thugs who raided Charlottesville to go home.  We all know Youngkin wouldn't do the same. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1453522316047101952

What a shame

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1453543666409254914?s=20

now this will be interesting because when it comes to polling fox is actually decent

I will say that if their results show that Glenn youngkin is still failing to take the lead in the race at this point than it is probably over from him and terry mcauliffe is winning this

On the other hand, if Glenn youngkin finally does take the lead than that could spell big trouble for terry mcauliffe. But even in that scenario, if the Dems do actually end up passing their popular infrastructure bill than that could potentially give a terry mcauliffe a boost days before the election

[Matty]

Fox polling isn't any better than the last 3 or 4 polls, at least based on past history.

[wbrocks67]

Fox's last 2017 poll wasn't *terrible*, but still off a bit. They had Northam +5, 48-43. That was better than Monmouth, however, that had it Northam +2.

Excited that we're getting one last Fox poll and Q-pac (even though they've been horrific this year).

I would assume Fox will likely come out tonight at 5 or 6pm EST based on their previous history.

[Buzz]

Q Pac is garbage.  Nobody should even give them clicks by looking at the result.

[roxas11]

Well, it looks like Terry McAuliffe got some potentially good news days before the election

I Don't know how much it will help him, but if the dems actually manage to pass thier popular infrastructure bill it defiantly won't hurt his chances

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1453710652409892872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcam...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think there are many universes where the result of the Virginia governor election is reliant on whether  Biden has passed his infastructure bill or not. It seems that this fight as at best of marginal importance for the election. Who votes on basis of that?