AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Getting nervous now

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

I think this has always been true throughout the cycle. If Dems are tie or losing the NPV, AZ is def not a shoe-in lol.

My main fear as I've said before is low Hispanic turnout really costing Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not saying for certain this race isn't close, it's decently close at the very least, but it should be noted that public statements like this are important to remind people to get out to vote, by holding out the specter of a Masters win. Even if the race was actually strongly in Kelly's favor (say, private internals for both campaigns having it around Kelly+8), they would have reason to say this.

[MT Treasurer]

Not a perfect comparison by any means (they usually never are), but this could be this cycle's NC-SEN 2014 in that a somewhat flawed R challenger who trailed in most pre-election polls is carried across the finish line by a late-breaking wave, the state's (relative) R lean, and a shift in messaging away from the challenger's peculiar positions/past to the incumbent's voting record/ties to the incumbent D president.

Feeling pretty good about my prediction of AZ flipping before GA.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not surprised. Based on the GCB and Arizona's partisanship, there's no way Kelly was ever winning by 5+ points. He'll be lucky to win at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm not surprised. Based on the GCB and Arizona's partisanship, there's no way Kelly was ever winning by 5+ points. He'll be lucky to win at all.

The claim Kelly would win by huge margins was always something that should have aroused skepticism. Fundamentals matter and the leans of states have a significant impact on how things are once all votes are counted. It wasn't always like this, but it's like this now.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

[xavier110]

I mean, who honestly thought Mark Kelly was going to win by 6 when he won by 2 in 2020? Boggles the mind.

[SnowLabrador]

I mean, who honestly thought Mark Kelly was going to win by 6 when he won by 2 in 2020? Boggles the mind.

I suppose some people thought Arizona was moving leftward more quickly than expected. But since you're in Arizona, how do things look on the ground there?

[xavier110]

I mean, who honestly thought Mark Kelly was going to win by 6 when he won by 2 in 2020? Boggles the mind.

I suppose some people thought Arizona was moving leftward more quickly than expected. But since you're in Arizona, how do things look on the ground there?

I think it’s going to be very close for both Senator and Governor

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it's gonna be close Gas prices along with rents has increased remember gas prices were cheap and Center street Pac had it 55/36 Kelly and 50/45 Hobbs yeah I remember those polls in August when gas prices were declining

That's why Ds blocked the WVA pipeline gaa prices were declining now it's increasing and the most people live in AZ and CA anyhow

[Ferguson97]

Getting nervous now

How would it benefit the Kelly campaign to say that they have the election in the bag? All that would accomplish is breeding complacency among his own supporters.

[2016]

Makes sense now that Republicans triaged Bolduc in New Hampshire to help Masters in Arizona.

AZ is a much more polarized & closer State so it was the right call.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Getting nervous now

Eh, it’s just pre-election jitters. I’m confident Kelly will win, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it was a very close race. Very campaign gets cold feet right before an election. Voters start deciding, gaps close, and people get nervous

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

Both Biden and Trump's people seemed to know Michigan was competitive up until the end.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

Both Biden and Trump's people seemed to know Michigan was competitive up until the end.

I thought there were rumblings towards the end that Michigan was likely the least chance of a Trump win of the "blue wall"? Maybe I'm remembering wrong. I feel like there was hullaballoo about his team dropping out ads in Michigan or something in the final days to focus on other states.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not a perfect comparison by any means (they usually never are), but this could be this cycle's NC-SEN 2014 in that a somewhat flawed R challenger who trailed in most pre-election polls is carried across the finish line by a late-breaking wave, the state's (relative) R lean, and a shift in messaging away from the challenger's peculiar positions/past to the incumbent's voting record/ties to the incumbent D president.

Feeling pretty good about my prediction of AZ flipping before GA.

Honestly this. And PA-SEN feels like it’s this year’s NC-SEN 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I have PA as my VA-SEN 2014. PA is my NC-SEN and NC is my LA-SEN (Dem widely seen as toast but still makes it close)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol all y’all comparing current senate races to previous senate races are a bit silly. Every senate race has its own very unique circumstances and there’s never 2 that are truly parallel, maybe some mild similarities at best.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

Both Biden and Trump's people seemed to know Michigan was competitive up until the end.

I thought there were rumblings towards the end that Michigan was likely the least chance of a Trump win of the "blue wall"? Maybe I'm remembering wrong. I feel like there was hullaballoo about his team dropping out ads in Michigan or something in the final days to focus on other states.

The sense I got is this is what they believed the battleground was by E-Day:

Colorado/New Mexico/Virginia - String likely D
Maine, New Hampshire - Weaker Likely D
Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan - Lean D
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona - Tossup
Georgia, North Carolina - Tilt R
Florida, Texas, Ohio, Iowa - Lean R
Alaska? - Likely R

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

Both Biden and Trump's people seemed to know Michigan was competitive up until the end.

I thought there were rumblings towards the end that Michigan was likely the least chance of a Trump win of the "blue wall"? Maybe I'm remembering wrong. I feel like there was hullaballoo about his team dropping out ads in Michigan or something in the final days to focus on other states.

Ah I remember that.  I also seem to recall some quiet concerns about the scant number of campaign visits that Clinton had made to the Rust Belt Three (MI, PA, and WI) during the final weeks of the campaign, though these concerns were largely "we've noticed, but it shouldn't be a problem". 

[Person Man]

Lol all y’all comparing current senate races to previous senate races are a bit silly. Every senate race has its own very unique circumstances and there’s never 2 that are truly parallel, maybe some mild similarities at best.

History rhymes, right?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol all y’all comparing current senate races to previous senate races are a bit silly. Every senate race has its own very unique circumstances and there’s never 2 that are truly parallel, maybe some mild similarities at best.

History rhymes, right?

Ig to some degree, it often seems like in hindsight the comparisons people make are just really bad.