AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[MT Treasurer]

Unbeatable Titan Doug Ducey and his lower approval rating than Trump in a D trending state against a fairly popular incumbent will obviously make this race Safe R.

Literally no one here is saying this, but whatever.

Anyway, Toss-up. His margin this year was very underwhelming.

[MT Treasurer]

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be a shame when he inevitably loses by 0.12% in 2028, though.

Ducey is term-limited, though. Who (other than Ducey) is formidable enough to take on Kelly in 2028? Remember, in case you didn’t notice, this is the AZ GOP we’re talking about here. They’ll likely blow AZ-GOV in 2022 by nominating some crazy lunatic like Ward or Biggs, so they won’t even have an incumbent Republican governor to run against Kelly in 2028, and that means they’ll face an uphill battle that year for sure. Maybe they run some reasonable, sane Republican in 2034, but by then the state will be solidly Democratic, so it wouldn’t matter.

[MT Treasurer]

Brnovich is overrated and would lose the GE by a solid 55.2-42.2 margin, Ward would lose 60.3-38.1. While Brnovich might do better than Ward, there’s still no top-tier R recruit in sight here who could actually make this competitive. You need a pitch-perfect campaign to even pose a remote threat to someone of Kelly's caliber, and it’s pretty clear the loony AZ GOP has absolutely no one who could run such a race, especially with Ducey reading the tea leaves and staying out of the race. Likely D.

I actually discussed this with my Biden/Schumer-hating, tutu-wearing, neoliberal 46-year-old aunt from Glendale and she’d give Brnovich a solid 3.5/10 in terms of candidate quality. However, since she’s not even considering any Republican who didn’t score at least 7.5 on her evaluation sheet, he’s out. Here’s what she just sent me:

"Hey Max, this is basically how I feel about them:

SINEMA

Ideology - 4/4
Messaging - 2.5/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 3/3
----------------------
9.5/10
Grade: A

BRNOVICH

Ideology - 2.5/4
Messaging - 1/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 0/3
----------------------
3.5/10
Grade: F

YEE

Ideology - 4/4
Messaging - 2/3
Tutu? Astronaut? - 0/3
-----------------------
6/10
Grade: C-

Hope this makes sense, I do have separate evaluation sheets for each of the three criteria as well (let me know if you need those, too). Geez, it’s getting late, I’m honestly worn out today. Do you by any chance have a link to Cornyn's 2020 county map you could send me? I’d really appreciate it if you did. Take care!"

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think Brnovich would have been stronger than a generic R, and there’s still plenty of generic R options to choose from here. I’m not too worried about this, but I agree that Trump needs to stay out of primaries.

I also think that it’s becoming more and more likely that some well-funded businessman will win the primary here (Blake Masters, Jim Lamon).

[MT Treasurer]

Blake Masters is the Thiel candidate, he probably isn't that much better than a crazy, Lamon would probably be fine, I haven't heard much about him.

So "crazy" / "lunatic" = conservative? Because then every R nominee in every single battleground state is going to qualify as a "lunatic." The fact that Atlas of all places deems a Republican insufficiently moderate (as if ideology is more important than messaging/branding) doesn’t "prove" that they’re not "electable," especially in a favorable environment. Way too early to call Kelly heavily favored in this race.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree with you that national environment does matter quite a lot, which is why Kelly is not heavily favored, and I don't think anyone believes that, but Thiel has a reputation of supporting pretty extreme candidates, for instance he bankrolled Kobach and JD Vance has close ties to him, too. However, candidate quality, while overrated can matter somewhat, I don't think anyone denies that Sue Lowden would have won NV SEN in 2010, Jane Norton would have won CO in 2010, etc. Kelly absolutely is beatable, and I'd say it's a tossup right now, but the Republicans really have no one to blame but themselves, if they lose this race. Also outside of Wisconsin (RoJo is way stronger than people give him credit for, and he had a history of making nutty statements well before 2020, yet he still has a unique brand, that allows him to win), North Carolina, and New Hampshire, it does seem like the GOP is struggling with candidate recruitment, and that alone can hurt a party's chances. I agree that Republicans are quite likely to take back both Houses of Congress next year and think they win at least one of NV/AZ/NH, unless Biden is abnormally popular or they messed up candidate recruitment big time. However, I do think in Arizona especially where the Republicans need to win the types of voters that have been moving away from them in recent years, especially compared to other states, candidate quality will matter more than most states. I don't exactly think any Republican is going to win the swingy Trump/Sinema/Biden voters, but the right Republican could, in fact we saw this with AZ's ticket splitting in 2018. TL;DR by no means is Kelly a lock if the GOP nominates a candidate who is extreme, but it definitely complicates their chances, if that happens.

Er, Sue Lowden wouldn’t have beaten Harry Reid in 2010, and her Senate campaign that year was pretty bad. She also has a history of underperforming substantially even in favorable years, like in 2014, when she got blown out of the water by a State Senator in a LG primary which was expected to be very close.

Jane Norton is more debatable, but even then, Bennet was no pushover (nor nearly as incompetent as Udall) and the state's D lean/trend combined with the late movement/momentum toward Democrats nationally was always going to make this a difficult race for the GOP. If you want more obvious cases of races which were lost because of flawed R campaigns/strategies, you could always mention WV 2018, ND 2012, IN 2012, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

Who cares if he's a stronger candidate. Do you thing the AZ GQP is actually going to nominate a solid candidate?

Republicans blow AZ-GOV (see the neo-Nazi the Republicans nominate). Kelly winning AZ-SEN will be partly the same reason, although he has a much bigger advantage anyway.

It’s only May 2021 and this meme is already getting old/tiresome. No one has actually articulated a single reason as to why the AZ GOP is more likely to "blow it" than, say, the NC GOP. All I’ve learned from the AZ threads/this board is that the AZ GOP seems to be really good at "blowing" things and that they’re guaranteed to nominate a "lunatic" (whatever that means) even after what feels like half a dozen non-Congressional Republicans have already announced their bid.

[MT Treasurer]

No, its that Kelly will be hard to beat and the only one of the AZ-GOP official crowd who moderates would vote for is Ducey, who isn't running. We could always go to the top-notch Congressional bench, of which two have already expressed interest. Here these top-tier highly popular with moderates and swing voters,

 Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar.

1) "Kelly will be hard to beat" is, at best, a self-fulfilling prophecy — he was supposed to be nearly unbeatable in 2020 and ended up underperforming his polling quite substantially in a state where Democrats have been underpolled in the recent past. Here’s a candidate who could ride the national environment, the state's D trend, the national party's ground operation, and anti-Trump energy to victory against a very underwhelming challenger in a year in which he didn’t have a record to defend, not a candidate who has a proven record of swimming against the tide. If you note Kelly's 'strength' in polling, you should also point out that he was polling just as well against Yee and Brnovich as he was against Ward and Biggs in the most recent survey...

2) "[M]oderates" aren’t a uniform voting bloc, and assuming that branding/messaging (even if it’s largely negative messaging directed at your opponent) will matter less than a candidate's 'true' ideology is very, very unwise.

3) Again, several non-Congressional Republicans have already announced their candidacy/expressed their interest, far more so than in any other battleground race. It’s not even guaranteed that it will be one of the Congressmen (and I wouldn’t even say it’s likely at this point). More importantly, however, it’s May 2021, so plenty of time for other challengers to announce. It’s a wide-open Senate primary with no clear front-runner.

4) All assessments of candidate quality and its impact on any election are inherently subjective. Unless you’re talking about a disaster on the level of Roy Moore, Todd Akin, etc., assuming that a candidate's "quality" will be the difference between "competitive" and "safe" in a Biden +0.3 state in a midterm under a D trifecta in this day and age is ludicrous.  

5) None of this addresses my point about the AZ GOP not necessarily being more likely to throw away a winnable race than the NC GOP. "Pat McCrory and Lara Trump are electoral disasters who’d underperform badly among moderates against strong candidate Jeff Jackson" is a take you never see on here but which would be grounded in the same reasoning as the AZ conventional wisdom. Why does candidate quality matter this much in AZ but not NC?

You’re right that the GOP should be concerned about candidate recruitment/tracking here, but that’s because it’s the party's job to be concerned about candidate monitoring in any state, not just AZ. The bottom line is that the fundamentals still point to this being the most vulnerable seat for Democrats, and it’s rarely wise to downplay those in favor of your personal, arbitrary emphases on candidate quality. We’ve been through this before (NH-SEN 2016 vs. WI-SEN 2016 with strong incumbent/rising star Kelly Ayotte far more likely to win than self-destructing Trumpist radical Ron Johnson, NV-SEN 2018 with uninspiring/flawed candidate Rosen throwing the guy who has never lost an election a lifeline in what is totally not a near-guaranteed D pick-up, IA-SEN 2020 with Ernst's repeated 'gaffes' and 'off-putting fake persona'), and I’m perfectly happy to say the same when "candidate quality" is supposed to heavily benefit Republicans (which is why Sununu wouldn’t make NH-SEN a far more likely flip than AZ-SEN or NV-SEN, for instance).

[MT Treasurer]

Do yall have any reasoning or evidence to make this race tilt R? Kelly underperforming is not a good reason since Dems underperformed pretty much everywhere at every level.

It's tossup/tilt D till I see more.

It's a swing state with a strong Republican recruit in a Democratic midterm in a state Biden barely won. It's not unreasonable to point out that the fundamentals of this race favor Republicans. It's a toss-up at best, and that's being generous to Democrats.

Remember that at this point in 2009, AR-SEN 2010 flipping was considered a "bold" prediction on this forum, especially given Lincoln's "strengths" as an incumbent and the "mediocre" GOP bench. POLITICO also had a fun piece about that race in March 2009:

Is Sen. Blanche L. Lincoln (D-Ark.) in trouble?

Recent Arkansas trendlines would suggest otherwise. Democrats hold three of the state’s four House seats, both Senate seats, the governorship, both state legislative chambers and all seven statewide constitutional offices.

But President Barack Obama’s 20-point loss and recent polling data have insiders wondering whether Lincoln could face a tough reelection for a third term in 2010.

Republicans, however, may not be able to take advantage of the situation. Just as in 2008 when the state party failed to find a challenger against Pryor, the GOP remains without a Senate candidate. [...]

Brummett explained the GOP predicament.

“Republicans have no bench in Arkansas. They’ve got nothing,” said Brummett. “There is no farm team. There is no bench.”

The GOP’s top choice to challenge Lincoln, Mike Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor and Republican 2008 presidential candidate who now hosts a cable news talk show — has made clear to party leaders that he has no interest in running.

https://www.politico.com/story/2009/03/is-arkansas-still-land-of-lincoln-020638

Obviously AZ isn’t AR, but the point is that people tend to make the same arguments again and again when it comes to vulnerable incumbents, including in AR-SEN 2010 and this race ('lack' of a bench on the other side, other party's 'top choice' not running, recent strength of the incumbent's party, latest polling*, etc.) while losing sight of the fundamentals.

*PPP had Lincoln ahead by 8-11 points in March 2009.

I believe CT-SEN 2010 was widely considered more likely to flip than AR-SEN as well (reminds me of all the NH hype). The bottom line is that early conventional wisdom is rarely accurate.

[MT Treasurer]

Doug Ducey will go nowhere, first of, he wouldn't win a primary, but putting that aside, I'm not convinced he significantly improves the chances of Republicans here, Democrats and left-leaning independents are not fond of how he handled the coronavirus. He could win, but I'm not convinced he's that much better of a candidate or better at all, than say Brnovich.

"Candidate with the highest name recognition must be the most 'electable' candidate" is such lazy pundit/political operative logic. I feel like the GOP would be better served recruiting more businessmen in many of these races/states where their current bench is rather unimpressive (esp. OH, PA, AZ, NV).

[MT Treasurer]

This is pretty interesting, as Masters is one of very few Republican candidates who’s trying to make government overreach in the context of COVID-19 a key theme of his campaign. He’s also pivoting away from Trump -

After a bruising primary campaign, Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters and his team are seeking to center his general election against Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly on what they term as “cultural issues,” immigration, inflation and COVID-19, among other topics.

A recent Masters speech at a Turning Point Action event, where he was joined by GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, suggests he sees latent frustration at the lockdowns and mask mandates of two years ago as an issue that could attract voters in November.

Masters never once mentioned politically divisive former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he promoted until winning the Republican primary. Instead, he talked about the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's new COVID-19 guidelines, which eliminate isolation restrictions for unvaccinated people.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/08/20/senate-hopeful-blake-masters-aims-government-overreach-covid-19/10341704002/

[MT Treasurer]

Not a perfect comparison by any means (they usually never are), but this could be this cycle's NC-SEN 2014 in that a somewhat flawed R challenger who trailed in most pre-election polls is carried across the finish line by a late-breaking wave, the state's (relative) R lean, and a shift in messaging away from the challenger's peculiar positions/past to the incumbent's voting record/ties to the incumbent D president.

Feeling pretty good about my prediction of AZ flipping before GA.