AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[DaleCooper]

I don't believe Ducey can win back Arizona GOP primary voters, and if he somehow does then I think that makes him even less likely to beat Mark Kelly. He's easily attackable from all sides now that he's (wrongly and hilariously) seen as an anti-Trump Republican and with one of the worst responses in the country he doesn't even have the credibility on COVID that someone like DeWine or Sununu has. The fact that Ducey is among Arizona Republicans' best hope at taking down Mark Kelly, one of the few Democrats to outperform Biden in a fast-trending D state, should worry the GOP.

That said, until we have more polling and information, I won't rate this as anything other than tossup, but he doesn't seem especially more vulnerable than Warnock at this point.

[DaleCooper]

Trump has been backing a lot of ritzy elitist types. It makes the already laughable notion of Republicans being anti-establishment even more of a joke. Trumpism isn't a long-term coalition. As dumb as his voters are, eventually they'll be forced to see through the lie.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1583879683560845318?t=jX1Z6bwiDtsno2L1EKkRQ...

Stuff like this kind of confirms my suspicion that internal polls (real internals, not ones that get deliberately leaked by the campaign) are actually quite accurate and it's the public polls that are a total joke. Similar stories kind of got lost in the shuffle of the post-2020 media, but there was info coming out back then that, for example, the Biden campaign always knew Wisconsin was a pure tossup, and that the Senate Dems were confident by election day that Gideon and Cunningham would lose, even though the public polls were not indicating that.

I would generally agree with this, but it also seems like Biden was burned by Ohio. It genuinely seemed they thought they had a chance.

Though yeah, the point stands. Biden's overall campaign did like a whole powerpoint thing in like September of 2020 showing all their data from the swing states to try and prove that the public polling was showing a much less tight race.

Both Biden and Trump's people seemed to know Michigan was competitive up until the end.