NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[David Hume]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

[Woody]

Good for him, I’d want to stay out of Washington as well.

Also good for him for helping Dems keep the Senate

Only in your mind.

Democrats are struggling in New Jersey and Virginia and you believe they are capable of keeping the senate?

Gubernatorial races are different from Senate races.

New Jersey had a Republican Governor for the majority of Obama’s presidency.

Andy Beshar won the KY GOV in 2018. Charlie Baker has won MA Gov.

Democrats didn't gain any other statewide positions nor any gains in the legislatures. Republicans swept all three statewide offices in Virginia, and took the HoD. While they came short in New Jersey, they still made gains in the Assembly.

Not to mention that Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country at that time, and Beshear's family was popular with the old DINOS.

Both Murphy and Northam had decent approvals/not underwater.

[CookieDamage]

Moves to tilt D/lean D.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is still going to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. In fact, I think it'll be the closest. Sununu getting in would've increased the Republican chances of taking the Senate more than any other candidate, but they're still favored even without him.

[ibagli]

lol https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1458086111511781393

[ElectionsGuy]

lol https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1458086111511781393

That only increases Sununu's likeability.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wait.. Sununu isn't running? A huge relief.

That said, this race is still Tilt D at best, more like a pure tossup, depending on challenger. Kelly Ayotte may still make it close, should she run.

[Xing]

Maggie Hassan is no doubt one of the happiest people in Washington right now. While this doesn’t make her safe by any means, it might mean she’s a bit more likely to win than Masto/Warnock, though I’d still say Toss-Up, maybe Tilt D at best.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

Favored, but why risk the Governor's office when Ayotte can still make a decent run at the Senate (the last UNH poll had her down only by one)? I guess it would be better for the national party if Sununu had run, but this just limits the risk in my mind. Plus I don't see Ayotte having an easy primary either way, but especially not for Governor with Edelblut being a real potential challenger. At least for Senate, she will probably have a more open field.

I'm also just always pessimistic about the NH GOP's abilities as well. It's not on the actual party so much as its voters, but still. In any event, I'd rather know that we'll have a lean R Gov race (at least) and a competitive Senate race than two competitive races. I've seen the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one too many times to think anything is a granted for them, I guess.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Lean R --> Lean D

[tosk]

This can still be a pickup opportunity. But it is harder now.

Who runs now? Ayotte?  Scott Brown?

Ayotte apparently not interested, Scott Brown has said no.

Edelblut? Morse? Maybe a state senator or rep? Gov said he talked to half a dozen people interested in running. He seems to think they're people who can win (otherwise he'd run?).

[Meatball Ron]

Obviously the race will still be competitive, and Hassan could certainly go down if the GOP gets a decent recruit and the national environment remains unfavorable. But let's be very, very clear: this is fantastic news for the Democrats, this drastically increases Hassan's chances of reelection, and McConnell/Scott are likely furious. Any blue avatars trying to downplay any of that need to be treated for a severe addiction to copium.

[BigSerg]

Okay, this is a disaster. Safe D

[BigSerg]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

This, pls primary Sununu

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

Favored, but why risk the Governor's office when Ayotte can still make a decent run at the Senate (the last UNH poll had her down only by one)? I guess it would be better for the national party if Sununu had run, but this just limits the risk in my mind. Plus I don't see Ayotte having an easy primary either way, but especially not for Governor with Edelblut being a real potential challenger. At least for Senate, she will probably have a more open field.

I'm also just always pessimistic about the NH GOP's abilities as well. It's not on the actual party so much as its voters, but still. In any event, I'd rather know that we'll have a lean R Gov race (at least) and a competitive Senate race than two competitive races. I've seen the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one too many times to think anything is a granted for them, I guess.

If Ayotte runs for Senate, her primary will be higher-profile and Trump already leans towards a candidate in the Senatorial race. He will probably go in guns blazing against her and outright endorse Bolduc, and she won’t hold up as well as Sununu in the primary. She could win, but I think the odds would be against her, and they’d definitely worse than her odds in a hypothetical gubernatorial bid.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why did he decide not to run . This decision makes no sense

[BigSerg]

Can we kick Sununu out of the Republican Party?

[KaiserDave]

Maggie always wins

[KaiserDave]

Can we kick Sununu out of the Republican Party?

Touch grass

[tosk]

Why did he decide not to run . This decision makes no sense

when the NRSC chair says being governor is more fun than being a senator AND you've got a young family AND a much clearer path to winning re-eelction... makes sense to me.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

Favored, but why risk the Governor's office when Ayotte can still make a decent run at the Senate (the last UNH poll had her down only by one)? I guess it would be better for the national party if Sununu had run, but this just limits the risk in my mind. Plus I don't see Ayotte having an easy primary either way, but especially not for Governor with Edelblut being a real potential challenger. At least for Senate, she will probably have a more open field.

I'm also just always pessimistic about the NH GOP's abilities as well. It's not on the actual party so much as its voters, but still. In any event, I'd rather know that we'll have a lean R Gov race (at least) and a competitive Senate race than two competitive races. I've seen the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one too many times to think anything is a granted for them, I guess.

If Ayotte runs for Senate, her primary will be higher-profile and Trump already leans towards a candidate in the Senatorial race. He will probably go in guns blazing against her and outright endorse Bolduc, and she won’t hold up as well as Sununu in the primary. She could win, but I think the odds would be against her, and they’d definitely worse than her odds in a hypothetical gubernatorial bid.

That's true I suppose, but I still feel it's better for the Governor's office to be closer to safe than to have to fight two very competitive races, even if the national environment is good for the GOP. I just think of 2014 where the party didn't pick up either seat despite good results for Republicans overall with two decent (though, granted, not great by any means) candidates. But I do take the point that this really does reduce the chances of taking the Senate seat. I suppose I just think it's better to take the risk-averse route here, at least from the NH GOP perspective.

Further note: I'll also say I am coming at this as an NH voter, so I'm not making the case this is better for the national party, it probably isn't, and judging by the reaction we're seeing from a lot of GOP figures and blue avatars on here they know it. But personally, I won't mind not having to sweat the Gov race as much, and I think that might be true for many in the NH GOP (those who aren't deluded at least, which granted is not as many as one would like).

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

It's not like this guarantees the Democrats keep the Senate (I don't know why I need to say this, but the strawmanning in this thread has been incredible) but it is obviously a help. The Democrats are obviously better off in a race if the popular incumbent governor is not running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1458086111511781393

I’d love to hear the backstory behind the decision not to give them a heads-up

[Gracile]

I never bought that this race was anything better than a tossup for Republicans (regardless of whether Sununu ran or not), and I think his exit from the race only makes a mild difference. This race should still be competitive based on the fundamentals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is a Tossup, Ayotte wàs leading on the Final Weekend of the campaign and LOST IN 2016, a five or lead doesn't Guarentee anything, Sununu last time had aa lead under 10 was in 2018 and he had a 20 pt lead that dwindled to 7 and barely beat Molly Kelly

At the moment he is Favored like James or Craig are in MI but not safe by any means