NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[MT Treasurer]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

[UWS]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

[UWS]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

I am Endorsing Crist because he is the only candidate that can beat DeSantis, that's why Val Deming's dropped out of Gov race but it's 500 days from an Election anyways

Afro Americans also liked Scott much better than DeSantis since DeSantis is so close to TRUMP

[UWS]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

I am Endorsing Crist because he is the only candidate that can beat DeSantis, that's why Val Deming's dropped out of Gov race but it's 500 days from an Election anyways

Afro Americans also liked Scott much better than DeSantis since DeSantis is so close to TRUMP

You said you donated to Bullock and Joe Kennedy III and they both lost, not closely but miserably. And no one unseats a Governor with over 50 % approval rating (more precisely 55 % for De Santis).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sununu is the one with the most Roe v. Wade risk. NH is a very pro choice state and he could drop fast if the court upheld the Mississippi law.

I don't know. 2016 convinced me that Democratic voters don't actually turn out for reproductive rights or Supreme Court vacancies as much as they should. 2022 is going to be a year where all Republicans need is historical precedent for them to do well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hassan does win, do you think the GOP should unofficially give up on NH in federal races?

Yeah, definitely. At some point, you can’t explain these things away anymore and the pattern becomes pretty unambiguous.

FTR, I don’t believe that this is more likely to flip than AZ or much more likely to flip than NV even with Sununu — the underlying fundamentals are just too strong for that to happen. I just think that of those three races, NH is arguably the one where "candidate quality" on the R side might make the biggest difference.

Scott Brown and John Sununu both lost to Shaheen, it has happened before that popular moderates lost to female Dem named Shaheen, UWS controdicted me on Scott Brown but John Sununu lost to Jeanne Shaheen in 2008, I don't see Hassan losing unless Rs win PVI which they haven't won since 2014 7 yrs ago

Sununus aren't a shoe in, especially 500 days out from the an Election

There you go again. Unlike 2008, there is no War in Iraq this time around and Chris Sununu is a popular Governor. And when it comes to political dynasties, Jeb Bush, for example, lost the 1994 gubernatorial election in Florida but that didn’t stop his brother George W. Bush from winning the presidency not only once but twice.

When was the last time Rs won the PVI 2014, in order to take NH or GA you are gonna have to win the PVI, it's been 7 yrs since Rs won the PVI 2014 when they won it it by 5 pts, you lost it in 2016 but Trump got in on a 3rd party spoiler, we haven't seen Rs take a single lead, and just like DeSantis, six point leads doesn't hold up very well in 500

DeSantis isn't winning by 10, from a right wing group Champer of Commerce and if he or Sununu is leading by six it is easily overcome in 500 days


Gillium was leading DeSabtis by six points a mnth before the Election and he lost to DeSantis, so a six pt lead isn't invincible

Crist has not even been able to defeat an unpopular Scott, thus displaying how weak Crist is.

I am Endorsing Crist because he is the only candidate that can beat DeSantis, that's why Val Deming's dropped out of Gov race but it's 500 days from an Election anyways

Afro Americans also liked Scott much better than DeSantis since DeSantis is so close to TRUMP

You said you donated to Bullock and Joe Kennedy III and they both lost, not closely but miserably. And no one unseats a Governor with over 50 % approval rating (more precisely 55 % for De Santis).

But, if you look closely at the polls in FL, Gillium had a lead on DeSantis a mnth before the Election, I don't recall how much it was, but it was like 3-5 pts and he lost.

If Gweyn Graham ran, we would have Gov Graham, and I haven't donated to Crist I donated to Tim Ryan and Jeff Jackson

[Meatball Ron]

Nothing exceptionally new or insightful in this article, but I thought it was a really thorough and accurate summary of where this race (and the Senate landscape overall) currently stands:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-senate-sununus-vital-choice/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato assumes that it's a 303 map and D's can't make plays in an improving Economy in 500 not 180 day just like all the other Pundits it's not over for the D's especially in H and they lead on Generic ballot by 10 points


I take everything even the Doomers on this site that predict a Mccarthy slide in H with a grain of salt.

[Girlytree]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1425801906903863300

Tejasinha Sivalingam running as a Republican.

Also, if Sununu doesn’t run, who is the GOP frontrunner?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

Okay, that sounds pretty official. He's running. Lean R.

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/NewHampJournal/status/1435631869962358784

Uhhhhh, not sure "send me to Washington so I don't have to work as hard" is a winning message to come out of the gate with.

[LePageFan]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

You really believe polls that Hassan and CCM are down 8/10 pts no, Ayotte was leading Hassan until Election day and Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK vwas down to Laxalt

C'mon, it's not Likely R, NH isn't ME

[LePageFan]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

You really believe polls that Hassan and CCM are down 8/10 pts no, Ayotte was leading Hassan until Election day and Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK vwas down to Laxalt

C'mon, it's not Likely R, NH isn't ME

You’re right it’s not Maine. It’s actually 2 points more republican than Maine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME has voted for Collins and Olympia Snowe more often than Ayotte and John Sununu, Jeanne Shaheen replace a Sununu since 2008 in Sen, it's Ben 10 yrs since a SUNUNU served in Sen

[LePageFan]

ME has voted for Collins and Olympia Snowe more often than Ayotte and John Sununu, Jeanne Shaheen replace a Sununu since 2008 in Sen, it's Ben 10 yrs since a SUNUNU served in Sen

And 2008 was the worst year for republicans the past 50 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Sununu almost lost to Molly Kelly, he hasn't been scrutinized yet and neither has DeSantis, they will, it's not even voting time yet and some believe Sununu and Laxalt has the race locked in, No he doesn't


Cook and Sabato still has it Lean D ratings it's not Lean D or Lean R it's a Tossup

The one race he almost lost was against a female he crushed Dem men, he will lose

[S019]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

There's not a chance in hell that Democrats flip Florida before they hold New Hampshire.

[S019]

Hot take NH senate is Likely Republican with Sununu but on top of that I believe dems have a better shot to win the governors race in NH than senate in 2022.

Not too hot imo, I'd say it's Lean R, but if Sununu runs and the national environment is even somewhat R leaning, let me just say I think Democrats would have a better shot at PA and possibly NC and FL. If the national environment is neutral, I'd still say Lean R, and even in that case, inelastic states like FL and NC can do weird things. Also yeah they obviously have a very good chance of winning a Governor's race when the only possible credible Republican would be Kelly Ayotte.

There's not a chance in hell that Democrats flip Florida before they hold New Hampshire.

I guess I should clarify, I can easily see a scenario where Rubio loses much of his crossover support in Florida or at least one where the state votes for him more like it does for normal candidates, i.e. R+2-3, while in New Hampshire, Sununu's popularity combined with a bad national environment for Democrats (which matters, because of the state's elasticity) leads to him winning by 6-8.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have 365 days til the Election, D's are not out of it by any means

But SUNUNU isnt leading by. 9 pts and neither is Laxalt and they are below 50%