Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Cite one poll to which they overestimated R's.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A-)-rated Quinnipiac University:

Approvals:
Americans hate Joe Biden.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

(A-)-rated Quinnipiac University:

Approvals:
Americans hate Joe Biden.

It won't stop red avatars from saying muh Quinnpiac overcorrection on the basis of no actual electoral evidence.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

And it probably will get worse, per Nate Silver.

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1481333005381685250

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Yeah, seems they have changed their methology, now producing extreme results in the other direction. Quinnipiac should just quit polling alltoghter.

With polarization and hyperpartisanship like in this time and age, it's virtually impossible for any president regardless of party to drop below the high 30s.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Yeah, seems they have changed their methology, now producing extreme results in the other direction. Quinnipiac should just quit polling alltoghter.

In a divided environment like this, it's virtually impossible for any president regardless of party to drop below the high 30s.

Anything is impossible, until it eventually happens.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Yeah, seems they have changed their methology, now producing extreme results in the other direction. Quinnipiac should just quit polling alltoghter.

In a divided environment like this, it's virtually impossible for any president regardless of party to drop below the high 30s.

Anything is impossible, until it eventually happens.

On top of that other polls have been showing Biden In the mid 40’s so this is definitely an outlier

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Cite one poll to which they overestimated R's.

Still waiting.

[Ferguson97]

From the same poll: only 33% of Americans want Trump to run again

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1481349210742030338

If 2024 is a rematch, it could be worse than 2016 for historically disliked candidates

[President Johnson]

From the same poll: only 33% of Americans want Trump to run again

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1481349210742030338

If 2024 is a rematch, it could be worse than 2016 for historically disliked candidates

You would expect the Republicans get A LOT more than a point advantage in generic ballot with Biden at freakin' 33%. This entire poll is trash.

[Ferguson97]

You would expect the Republicans get A LOT more than a point advantage in generic ballot with Biden at freakin' 33%. This entire poll is trash.

Yeah, that's a good point. I could see an argument for 'Republicans are at +1' and 'Biden's at 33%' but I don't see how those could both be true... unless voters just don't blame congressional democrats for the economy?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From QU:

As President Biden marks his first year in the Oval Office, 50 percent of Americans say the job he is doing is about what they expected, 39 percent say he's doing a worse job than expected, and 7 percent say he's doing a better job than expected.

A plurality, 49 percent, say Biden is doing more to divide the country while 42 percent say he's doing more to unite the country.

Roughly 4 in 10 Americans (41 percent) think Biden is too liberal, 38 percent say he's about right, 9 percent say he's too conservative, and 12 percent did not offer an opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vaccinated Bear always post in 2024 Presidential thread the Picture of Trump getting stronger and Trump an Insurrectionists

That's why 55 percent say he shouldn't run

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Cite one poll to which they overestimated R's.

Hard to do when we're talking about their trend in polls for races that haven't occurred yet.  But when a pollster suddenly goes from consistently well to the left of the polling average to consistently well to the right, they've clearly done something to shift gears.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Cite one poll to which they overestimated R's.

Hard to do when we're talking about their trend in polls for races that haven't occurred yet.  But when a pollster suddenly goes from consistently well to the left of the polling average to consistently well to the right, they've clearly done something to shift gears.

Well, don't suggest they're entirely off base until their new methodology actually gets tested in a election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Cite one poll to which they overestimated R's.

Hard to do when we're talking about their trend in polls for races that haven't occurred yet.  But when a pollster suddenly goes from consistently well to the left of the polling average to consistently well to the right, they've clearly done something to shift gears.

Well, don't suggest they're entirely off base until their new methodology actually gets tested in a election.

I'm glad you agree that their methodology has evidently changed.  It's possible they've stumbled onto something that nobody else has, and we shall indeed see, but when a pollster is a significant outlier from the averages its more likely that they're the ones who are off, not the rest.  There are of course exceptions, but they are rare.

Another way to look at it: if Qpac still had an "extreme democratic lean" then results by them in the low 30s for Biden should be accompanied by other pollsters in the same range, and R-leaners like Rasmussen in the 20s.  But Ras has Biden in the low 40s.  If you believe that Qpac still has a D lean, then the logical conclusion is that Ras has an even bigger one.  

[Ferguson97]

Roughly 4 in 10 Americans (41 percent) think Biden is too liberal, 38 percent say he's about right, 9 percent say he's too conservative, and 12 percent did not offer an opinion.

Honestly that's about what I would have expected. The 41% is obviously Republicans, 38% is normie Democrats, and the 9% is progressives who are unsatisfied.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Another bit of information:

Americans are split on which party they would want to see win control of the United States House of Representatives as 43 percent say the Republican Party, 42 percent say the Democratic Party, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion. That's compared to November 2021 when 46 percent said the Republican Party, 38 percent said the Democratic Party and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

As for which party they want to see win control of the United States Senate, 45 percent say the Republican Party, 41 percent say the Democratic Party, and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.

So
House R+1
Senate R+4
??

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Leave it to QPac to release a terrible outlier.

[Ferguson97]

Another bit of information:

Americans are split on which party they would want to see win control of the United States House of Representatives as 43 percent say the Republican Party, 42 percent say the Democratic Party, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion. That's compared to November 2021 when 46 percent said the Republican Party, 38 percent said the Democratic Party and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

As for which party they want to see win control of the United States Senate, 45 percent say the Republican Party, 41 percent say the Democratic Party, and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.

So
House R+1
Senate R+4
??

Assuming these numbers are accurate (which I still don't think makes sense given Biden's approval; either his numbers should be higher or the Democrats should be lower in the generic ballot), that is pretty good news for their chances at PA/AZ/GA/NV-sen... but that's pretty bad for a House, result, no? 2018 was D+8 in the House

[BigSerg]

28% among Hispanics Hahaha
https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1481343408841109504?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another bit of information:

Americans are split on which party they would want to see win control of the United States House of Representatives as 43 percent say the Republican Party, 42 percent say the Democratic Party, and 16 percent did not offer an opinion. That's compared to November 2021 when 46 percent said the Republican Party, 38 percent said the Democratic Party and 16 percent did not offer an opinion.

As for which party they want to see win control of the United States Senate, 45 percent say the Republican Party, 41 percent say the Democratic Party, and 14 percent did not offer an opinion.

So
House R+1
Senate R+4
??

Assuming these numbers are accurate (which I still don't think makes sense given Biden's approval; either his numbers should be higher or the Democrats should be lower in the generic ballot), that is pretty good news for their chances at PA/AZ/GA/NV-sen... but that's pretty bad for a House, result, no? 2018 was D+8 in the House

Stop worrying about polls the D's are making changes to Filibuster as we speak and the election is10 mnths away


It's probably a Neutral cycle anyways 223 H majority either way and tied Senate and 278 Govs but we can over perform too

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Stop worrying about polls the D's are making changes to Filibuster as we speak and the election is10 mnths away

When do you think one may start to worry? 1 month before election? 3? 5?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1481345993320939525?s=20