Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

ZOGBY Poll have Biden at 49 Job Approval percent for your info, but 43/50 Job Performance


https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/1081-the-zogby-poll-president-biden-s-job-approval-and-performance-biden-s-job-approval-improves-job-performance-remains-underwater-biden-losing-ground-with-swing-voters



I never said D's were ahead theyre destined to lose 10 seats in the H but it's preposterous to think think that Biden is gonna be in all polling including ZOGBY and IPSOS THAT HE ON ELECTION NIGHT IS GONNA BE AT 40 PERCENT And BBB and Voting Rights still might pass and it's 3.9 percent Unemployment

.lol Trump in IPSOS AND YOU GOV ARE AT WORSE APPROVAL THAN BIDEN 39 in You Gov and IPSOS 44 because Trump is an Insurrectionists

Sorry.  I mixed up Zogby with Ipso's latest poll.  My bad. I get the distinction that you've explained from the Zogby Poll between approval and job performance.  The data just doesn't make any sense to me.  How is it that 25% of Conservatives and 20% of Republicans approve of Biden when that is an embarrassingly incorrect data point that is 250-500% outside of the average, as well as the results in Virginia and New Jersey.  You know 93% of Conservatives voted for Youngkin?  Come on. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Also, Zogby has it 30-65% among Independents, but Biden is getting 5 times as many Republicans?  No way.  Look at the 2017 VA exit poll political identification data.  There's a 50-50 split among independents, and Democrats had a 41% while the GOP had low turnout.  In 2021, Rs had a 10 point advantage and had pretty even turnout with the Ds.  So... If a poll is showing approval from a bunch of people in the opposition party, it means they aren't showing up.  That's what happened to the Rs in 2017 and the Ds in 2021.  If 65% of Independents disapprove and 5% don't know/won't answer, then how is it that Biden has approval from the our base?  Go to CNN to find the approvals for Biden during the 2021 race, and it's in line with the Civiqs statewide poll that came out 1/6. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/va/     

Why Civiqs?  Civiqs has better data with 144,000 respondents across the 50 states, and opinions are routinely updated to mark the trends of the whole groups.  They are a Democrat pollster indicating similar results to Trafalgar, Rasmussen, Suffolk, Change, RMG, Gallup, Marist, InsiderAdvantage, Monmouth, Q, and the Wall Street Journal.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true
 
I'm going to LMAO when GA, NC, AZ, NV, WI, and PA all flip to the GOP.  If I'm looking at the WV and AZ data as Manchen and Sinama, I'd sooner join the Republican Party before I voted for BBB and Make Voter Fraud Great Again Legislation.  The biggest downfall for the Democrats and establishment Republicans will be the "Trump is an insurrectionist" card and the Twitter bans.   

...and I will laugh when Texas goes D.

Polling can swing fast, especially after the president is able to make clear, concise speeches that excoriate wrongdoing in the other Party. It's time for Republicans to recognize the disgrace done in the name of their Party on behalf of Donald Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave I doubt Beto wins but Crist and Tim Ryan can they're blue dogs and have an Whaley and Deming's to carry them


Beto don't have a Senate candidates to carry him and he is down 15 whereas OH and FL are within the margin of error 4/6 pts

Crist was already Gov and didn't raise taxes and Ryan has never been defeated by an R


Sherrod Brown promised to campaign for Whaley and Ryan

[pbrower2a]

I never thought of President Biden as the sort to slam the hammer, but he did so on Thursday. He kept the skewering of the Putsch as non-partisan as possible... but it is obvious that Democrats have no cause for fear of consequences.

Polling this weekend might be interesting. 

ZOGBY and IPSOS HAVE BIDEN AT 50/48 AS I have always said it's about turnout in 2018 it was 46/43 M vote turnout and it was same day voting and in 2020 it was VBM 80/75 M turnout the polls underestimate  Minority turnout

It's freaking 10 mnths before the election and to secure WI/PA and MI it won't take much so I don't know why Vaccinated Bear keep polling these 40 percent Approvals it's freaking 10 mnths before the Election and 10 pts to 50 can be increased by Minority turnout to solidify the blue Wall which Trump didn't have he was a criminal

Biden's Approval Rating is more like 40-56%, and it's like 33-60% in swing states according to Civiqs.  His approval has been ticking down since the VA/NJ races, while disapproval has continued to elevate towards a Rasmussen like result.  46-49% of voters strongly disapprove of Biden.  The crazy swing that's been popping up in all the polls is among young voters (27-57%), as well as the 25% of Democrats the either Disapprove or Don't have an Opinion.  Georgia is most likely going to the Republicans, and I'm struggling with whether to lock-in my call right now.  42-46% among 18,000 Hispanics in the Civiq Poll continues the trend of lowering support for Biden (Biden has lost 6% of his Hispanic support since November).  It's the younger Hispanics that really hate Biden across the sunbelt.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true   

Zogby is at 45-51 at the time of your post, and both that pollster and Zogby are extreme outliers.  The pollsters you usually mention are plugging in some crazy numbers that would suggest a Democrat tsunami in 2022, and Biden's approval is still ticking down among even the most biased data samples (i.e. D+5-13).  Yet Morning Consult and Change Research still have Biden under-water 40-52%, and it's really 55/56% Disapprove when you apply their bias.  That makes Rasmussen, Suffolk and Trafalgar look like real solid performers going into the 2022 election season.       

Hysterical Note: The Zogby Poll indicates that a majority of voters think Biden and the Democrats are taking credit for Trump's accomplishments. lol. 
 
Moreover, the polls didn't underestimate minority turnout in 2020.  The difference between data in the Zogby/Ipsos polls as opposed to other pollsters has nothing to do with minorities.  2020 had nothing to do with strong minority turnout.  Joe Biden is President because he won a real good portion of suburban, small town and rural white vote in swing districts.  This obsession you and other Democrats have with race has totally blinded you from the obvious.  If Republicans get 59-62% of white voters as some polls are indicating, the game is over for Democrats. 

BTW... You know the pollsters have done a better job inputting turnout numbers into their data sets (motivation/enthusiasm of voters).   The Strongly Disapprove data is also pretty good for turnout predictions, because hating someone is great motivation for showing up to the polls, and those numbers will last for the next 10 months.       

Everything I've seen indicates that Democrats are going to be pretty well-F'ed by the time the 2022 elections role around.   

We have two different and contradictory narratives. It is hard to determine which one is right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I won't bet against D's losing 268 states WI, MI, PA, CO NH and NV polling and AZ and GA is pretty messed up right now and it was in 2018, even in wave Laxalt was beating Sisolak


But, there is NO STATE BY STATE POLLING ONLY CIVITAS APPROVALS AND BIDEN IS UNDERWATER IN THE RUST BELT TOO BUT NATL POLLS ARE INCHING TOWARDS 50/48 ALL BIDEN HAS TO DO IS BE AT 50/48 AND HE WINS THE SEN and MI, WI and PA on Election day

But, that doesn't bold well for H, D's are expecting to lose 10 seats even with the 268 map due to his dismal Approvals at the Border

[pbrower2a]

In his study from 2010, Nate Silver addressed the assumption that incumbents need to have early support of 50% or higher even before the campaign season begins to have a chance of winning re-election. He found that one can on average add 6.5% to the early support and predict a huge percentage of elections based on the resulting split of the vote share between the two main pols.

Read the article; here is my explanation.

This is an average. Very often a politician who seems to be struggling in February of a Presidential or midterm election year shores up support to a considerable degree. Very few lose supporters, and those typically involve politicians who face an unusually-strong challenger or run an incompetent campaign. If you are talking about breaking scandals, then those politicians with scandals about to break get little sympathy or coverage from journalists who know a bit more than the rest of us and know enough to not touch them with a ten-foot pole.

Most incumbents got elected in the previous election, and a huge percentage get re-elected. Very few can achieve all their promises; that's how politics works. Some enter office having no idea of how to legislate or govern, and they fail. They don't get re-elected. Some go corrupt or have personal scandals involving sex. Many of those look bad before the next campaign season begins. Nobody plugs them because they will be exposed. Most of the time incumbents get to show in the next election why they got elected the first time. They ran competent and spirited campaigns and connected with voters  and do that the next time because that is their character.  The obvious exception is appointed incumbents who might not have done such and have no idea of how to do that when running in their first election, and they have about the same chance as in an open-seat election.  A rarer exception is one in which a third-party or independent candidate mucks things up. 

So if a politician has a 44% support in February going into the election then he is most likely to end up with 50.5% of the share of the vote divided between the  two main opponents.

Silver's model exists to take out assessments of the quality of the pols and partisan affiliations of a state. It allows one to predict that Russ Feingold, a well-regarded US senator from a moderate state, could lose to a right-wing fanatic who simply obeys the contributors. At times the political figure who has the support of the slumlords, loan-sharks, rapacious executives, environment-wreckers, giant farmers, and other villains of socialistic ideals are the most effective pols. Maybe we will see how that works in 2022. In a plutocracy or a society about to commit itself to the plutocratic route, he who owns the gold makes the rules and someone like Ron Johnson is perfect for that ethos.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, ME and NV are very similar to AZ, KS and GA and MI and PA Govs and PA Sen is likely D D's aren't gonna sweep AZ, KS and GA likewise Rs aren't gonna sweep WI, ME and NV

But Katie Hobbs, Laura Kelly and Abrams are the Underdogs while Whitmer and Shapiro are the Favs and Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock and Mandella Barnes are the Favs

Naturally female candidates are the underdog were gonna have SPL voting in AZ and GA, GA Rs have reelected their R Govs since 2002/ and AZ have have an unbroken chain of R Govs too, when was the last D Gov of AZ Janet Napolitano and she was LATINA

We're gonna have an R net 10 seats 223R/215House and 51/49 D Senate depends on GA Runoffs and 26/24R Govs and Rs are gonna sweep 2023 and net KY, LA and NC which will bring their total to 29R/21 GOVS THEY WONT HAVE 35 govs

[pbrower2a]

From Wikipedia:

Janet Napolitano was born on November 29, 1957, in New York City, the daughter of Jane Marie (née Winer) and Leonard Michael Napolitano, who was the dean of the University of New Mexico School of Medicine.[9] Her father was of Italian descent and her mother had German and Austrian ancestry.[9][10] Her grandfather was named Filippo Napolitano.

Italian-American (and only half) is not Latino.

[Hollywood]

WI, ME and NV are very similar to AZ, KS and GA and MI and PA Govs and PA Sen is likely D D's aren't gonna sweep AZ, KS and GA likewise Rs aren't gonna sweep WI, ME and NV

But Katie Hobbs, Laura Kelly and Abrams are the Underdogs while Whitmer and Shapiro are the Favs and Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock and Mandella Barnes are the Favs

Naturally female candidates are the underdog were gonna have SPL voting in AZ and GA, GA Rs have reelected their R Govs since 2002/ and AZ have have an unbroken chain of R Govs too, when was the last D Gov of AZ Janet Napolitano and she was LATINA

We're gonna have an R net 10 seats 223R/215House and 51/49 D Senate depends on GA Runoffs and 26/24R Govs and Rs are gonna sweep 2023 and net KY, LA and NC which will bring their total to 29R/21 GOVS THEY WONT HAVE 35 govs

I spoke to a friend of Nikki Fried cause she's running for Governor, and were all within the same Jewish circle down in Hebrew Hills.  People close to her think she should bow out of the race cause DeSantis has a Huge War Chest, and nobody is showing up to her political events except reporters.  Her family is worried about her campaign, because that's how it is for Ds in areas where people actually practice Judaism.  The People in her circle do no think she is ready at the moment, and her left-wing extremism and poop-throwing is turning her into a laughing stock.  There's no backing from any direction.  What's the point?  You can't be praising a guy for targeting the Hassidic Jews in NY and asking for people in the community to help you. 

She has no funds, so she's decided to accept cryptocurrency as a means to bring in donations (and probably launder money from Mary-Jane Companies).  She's announced it to the public like a novice, and completely forgot that she had tweeted her concern about cryptocurrency being used to launder money.  In 2018, she had a Well Fargo Account shutdown which was receiving electronic payments from a medical marijuana lobbyists that's directly transferring money from the business.  Every lawyers knows this rule. 

She worked in the cannabis industry?  I wouldn't rust her to handle any corporate or financial legal matters if she doesn't even the first rule.  Charlie Christ is going to kick her in her girl nutsack. lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I know with the low unemployment the Biden Approvals are on the Upswing not downswing at 3.9 percent unemployment and we have 10 mnths before the Election WI, GA, PA, FL, AZ, MI, NV we're within 300K
votes  of each and are winnable by either party with a wave and it's VBM all bets are off and the other Midterms we're same day voting, all Ds need is the youth females, Latinos,Muslims, Asians and Blks, non Evangelical whites

Just because Civitas had Biden at Negative Approvals don't mean squat in all the Natl Approvals he went from 39/ to 47 and if he gets 50/48 on Election night it's a blue wave

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

(A+)-rated IBD/TIPP
1,308   A
JAN 5-8, 2022

https://www.investors.com/politics/biden-approval-rating-relapses-as-omicron-surges-stock-market-slumps/


Adults:
44 (+1 since DEC 1-4)
45 (+2)


Pandemic - 41/39
Economy - 34/43

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Jan. 5-9, 1308 adults (1-month change)

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 45 (+2)

[Hollywood]

When Polls are adjusted based on historical data and trends, as well as polling trends of demographics, Biden’s real approval rating is around 41-55% (-14%).  Remarkably, this is pretty close to the Real Clear Avg. of 42.1 to 54.8, but a bit higher than the 538 Adjusted Avg. of 43.1-51.5.  The biggest concern for Democrats seems two-fold: 1) Independents disapprove of their policies and administrative handling of situations; 2) They have lost the confidence and enthusiasm of Democrats, and this has been shaving away at their base. 

From an intuitive political strategy perspective, the January 6th coverage should have brought more Democrats back into the fold.  However, Joe Biden’s Approval has only seen a negligent bump over the weekend after the media shifted to January 6th coverage early last week.  Per Civiqs and others, the only effect it seems to have had is to push Undecided Democrats back into Biden’s camp, and shift a tiny amount of Independents towards the undecided group.       https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Democrat

The J6 content seems to have only really had a divisive effect on voters.  According to Rasmussen, many people that slightly approved or disapproved joined those people who strongly approved or disapproved.  However, the impact was negligible. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

Democrat Pollster, Morning Consult, has finally joined the consensus of polls tracking trends in approval when they released a poll of registered voters showing Biden 11-points underwater on December 28-29.   Why they didn’t publicly release it with the other data released on December 28-29 is very strange?   It’s interesting to note that Democrats did not support withdrawal when Trump was in Office, but flip-flopped when Biden pulled them out.  https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/10/iran-nuclear-deal-poll/

While it may be bit early to conclude the results of the J6 coverage, it should worry Democrats that it did not have any compelling influence on voters other than the ones who were already likely to vote for them in elections.   Also, the Biden and Democrats are losing approval for their handling of the Covid-19 situation, and he is likely underwater when you calculate the average of polls.  The message from Democrat posters about waiting until spring for good news is simply a propaganda tool that is present in the analysis of Democrat and Establishment Neo-Con Pollsters.   It’s time for Democrats to hit the panic button. 

Note: The IBD poll has 29-55% Disapproval among Independents, but by some sort of wizardry, Biden is only down by 1 point.  How?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

When Polls are adjusted based on historical data and trends, as well as polling trends of demographics, Biden’s real approval rating is around 41-55% (-14%).  Remarkably, this is pretty close to the Real Clear Avg. of 42.1 to 54.8, but a bit higher than the 538 Adjusted Avg. of 43.1-51.5.  The biggest concern for Democrats seems two-fold: 1) Independents disapprove of their policies and administrative handling of situations; 2) They have lost the confidence and enthusiasm of Democrats, and this has been shaving away at their base. 

From an intuitive political strategy perspective, the January 6th coverage should have brought more Democrats back into the fold.  However, Joe Biden’s Approval has only seen a negligent bump over the weekend after the media shifted to January 6th coverage early last week.  Per Civiqs and others, the only effect it seems to have had is to push Undecided Democrats back into Biden’s camp, and shift a tiny amount of Independents towards the undecided group.       https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Democrat

The J6 content seems to have only really had a divisive effect on voters.  According to Rasmussen, many people that slightly approved or disapproved joined those people who strongly approved or disapproved.  However, the impact was negligible. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

Democrat Pollster, Morning Consult, has finally joined the consensus of polls tracking trends in approval when they released a poll of registered voters showing Biden 11-points underwater on December 28-29.   Why they didn’t publicly release it with the other data released on December 28-29 is very strange?   It’s interesting to note that Democrats did not support withdrawal when Trump was in Office, but flip-flopped when Biden pulled them out.  https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/10/iran-nuclear-deal-poll/

While it may be bit early to conclude the results of the J6 coverage, it should worry Democrats that it did not have any compelling influence on voters other than the ones who were already likely to vote for them in elections.   Also, the Biden and Democrats are losing approval for their handling of the Covid-19 situation, and he is likely underwater when you calculate the average of polls.  The message from Democrat posters about waiting until spring for good news is simply a propaganda tool that is present in the analysis of Democrat and Establishment Neo-Con Pollsters.   It’s time for Democrats to hit the panic button. 

Note: The IBD poll has 29-55% Disapproval among Independents, but by some sort of wizardry, Biden is only down by 1 point.  How?

I’d say Biden’s real numbers are smth like 44-51 going by recent polls and how they have changed over time

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Instagram BBC: Invalid instagram link provided

[BigSerg]

He's at 54% in Maryland and independent voters gave Biden just 32% approval and 62% disapproval haha, RED WAVE
https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1480888806547013633?t=UyKV6Lz98PxovacwmtV...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is surging in the polls, she went from 6 pts down to 10 pts ahead out problem is with Latinos that's down 50/63 from 70 percent CO that's were losing in NV, but once it gets back to 70 percent we will win

Biden is on the upswing and Freefall is OVER, WERE AT 3.9 PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND COVID WILL BE OVER AFTER FLU SEASON IN APRIL

[ElectionsGuy]

If a poll that claims to be a statistical tie can't even get Biden to 80% of Democrats and 30%(!) of independents, said poll is certifiable trash. I don't know what TIPP has done since the election considering before 2020 they were on the more R-friendly side of polls, but they've definitely disgraced themselves when it comes to presidential approval.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not an automatic red wave, because Obama was at 38 percent Approvals in Aug 2010, Biden is not gonna be that, and We have 3.9 percent unemployment and we had 9.9 percent unemployment in 2010, BIG DIFFERENCE

[EastwoodS]

It's not an automatic red wave, because Obama was at 38 percent Approvals in Aug 2010, Biden is not gonna be that, and We have 3.9 percent unemployment and we had 9.9 percent unemployment in 2010, BIG DIFFERENCE

Tf? Biden approvals will always be 10-15 points lower at the same stage of whatever Obama was in his presidency; Voters are less on the Democrats side now than under Obama.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not an automatic red wave, because Obama was at 38 percent Approvals in Aug 2010, Biden is not gonna be that, and We have 3.9 percent unemployment and we had 9.9 percent unemployment in 2010, BIG DIFFERENCE

Tf? Biden approvals will always be 10-15 points lower at the same stage of whatever Obama was in his presidency; Voters are less on the Democrats side now than under Obama.

It's not an automatic wave Nate Solver said D's are gonna win WI, PA and MI and it will be 223 RH and 51/49 D S depending on the GA Runoffs and 27 R GS Ds losing KS, AZ and GA but winning MD and Ma

Hello, were in a Pandemic and Rs are gonna win in 2023/24 KY, LA and NC Govs for 30/20 G majority not 50 seats by Rs in H or 35 Govs

Whitmer, is leading by 10 in new poll, SISOLAK, Evers and Shapiro and Mills are favored and we have 3.9 percent unemployment again with 10 percent unemployment Obama lost 50 H seats and Rust belt Govs  because he wasn't at 55 percent in Aug 2010 he was at 39 Biden is at 47 percent

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 8-11, 1500 adults including 1258 RV


Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 20 (+5)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)


RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+6)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 42 (nc), R 37 (-1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The H flips by 10 not 50 and D's duplicate the 304)234 blue wall plus UT, OR AK Going Indy and KS going blue which I expect at the end is a Neutral not red wave 223/215 H either way most like GoP

Even if Voting Rights passes because in Zogny Biden is at 50/48 Job Approvals but 43/50 on Job performance

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...

HOLY sh**t.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...

HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.