Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a misconception about 2018, that D's all of a sudden got up one day and had 33 H seats in the bag, polls a yr before an Election are meaningless when it come to blue waves. If we had 33 H seats in bag we would have won 50 H seats like in 2008 when we were at 230 already

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1392950872548777990?s=20

Twenty-five states now, and the most interesting addition is Pennsylvania. If I saw a map like thiws going into November 2024 I would expect President Biden to win 358 or 375 electoral votes (depending on Ohio)... 415 if Texas goes D. Trump may have been an excellent match for Iowa and Ohio  in 2016 and 2020.  We do have Montana and West Virginia for calibration.

Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states.  

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability. Well, I no longer need discuss favorability of the President in Pennsylvania.

[ultraviolet]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

Subtracting ten means Biden lost PA by three.  He won by one, so it’s more like subtract six.

I’m pretty sure Lief is joking

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are backtracking on the Insurrectionists because they failed to hold Trump accountable on impeachment, that's why Johnson hasn't lead in a single poll since making those outrageous comment's about Insurrectionists being tours of DC, we will see what Senate Rs will do on this bill on creating a Jan 6 Commission, if they are gonna Filibuster it

That's why Trump is stuck at 46 Percent

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

This is probably an act but it is fun to look back at final Data For Progress polls:
AZ - Biden +3
CO - Biden +12
FL - Biden +3 (yikes)
GA - Biden +2
IA - Trump +2
ME - Biden +14
MI - Biden +5
MN - Biden +9
NV - Biden +7
NC - Biden +2


Too bored to go further but seems like their house effect in 2020 was D+5 or so.

[Conservatopia]

Why does Mohommad not believe in blue waves, he thinks everything is gonna be close, and he was the one that posted 60 percent approvals for Biden, D's believe in blue waves not close Elections.

Quran page 69:

R's think that Quraysh can beat the Muslims. Ha. Muslims will win due to fact Biden approvals 60 percent.  Mecca is not Medina and Islam will spread across the Wrld.😁😁😁  Cookie Damage thinks Jeddah statehood will happen.  No it won't.

Sour grapes🍇🍇🍇😭😭😭

[Bootes Void]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

This is probably an act but it is fun to look back at final Data For Progress polls:
AZ - Biden +3
CO - Biden +12
FL - Biden +3 (yikes)
GA - Biden +2
IA - Trump +2
ME - Biden +14
MI - Biden +5
MN - Biden +9
NV - Biden +7
NC - Biden +2


Too bored to go further but seems like their house effect in 2020 was D+5 or so.

what about the vote share %, i think that might be more accurate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why does Mohommad not believe in blue waves, he thinks everything is gonna be close, and he was the one that posted 60 percent approvals for Biden, D's believe in blue waves not close Elections.

Quran page 69:

R's think that Quraysh can beat the Muslims. Ha. Muslims will win due to fact Biden approvals 60 percent.  Mecca is not Medina and Islam will spread across the Wrld.😁😁😁  Cookie Damage thinks Jeddah statehood will happen.  No it won't.

Sour grapes🍇🍇🍇😭😭😭

Mohommad always post 60 percent Approvals, but when her predicts the state winners, he believes its gonna be close

Look D's will win the 303 Freiwall, but our H Majority to make Jefferies Speaker we need to win wave insurance seats in OH, IA, NC and FL to keep our H Majority

The Rs are trying to make McCarthy Speaker to steal the Election in 2024 and so are the R state Legislatures.

With a 55/45 Senate we will repeal the Filibuster and the voter suppression laws.  We can repeal them now but Tester, Sinema and Manchin are playing games

There is a myth about 2018, we won 33 seats in 2018, we didn't win them in 2017 and all the Rs are pointing to 2018 to prove it's not a wave and Biden has 59 percent Approvals

[Conservatopia]

Why does Mohommad not believe in blue waves, he thinks everything is gonna be close, and he was the one that posted 60 percent approvals for Biden, D's believe in blue waves not close Elections.

Quran page 69:

R's think that Quraysh can beat the Muslims. Ha. Muslims will win due to fact Biden approvals 60 percent.  Mecca is not Medina and Islam will spread across the Wrld.😁😁😁  Cookie Damage thinks Jeddah statehood will happen.  No it won't.

Sour grapes🍇🍇🍇😭😭😭

Mohommad always post 60 percent Approvals, but when her predicts the state winners, he believes its gonna be close

Look D's will win the 303 Freiwall, but our H Majority to make Jefferies Speaker we need to win wave insurance seats in OH, IA, NC and FL to keep our H Majority

The Rs are trying to make McCarthy Speaker to steal the Election in 2024 and so are the R state Legislatures.

With a 55/45 Senate we will repeal the Filibuster and the voter suppression laws.  We can repeal them now but Tester, Sinema and Manchin are playing games

There is a myth about 2018, we won 33 seats in 2018, we didn't win them in 2017 and all the Rs are pointing to 2018 to prove it's not a wave and Biden has 59 percent Approvals

That makes sense - seems like Ds will win big in the H in 2022 due to fact Biden approvals so high. 😁

What Senate seats do you think Ds will gain?

How does wave insurance work exactly?  Do Democrats have to pay extra for pre-existing conditions?

[Progressive Pessimist]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

It's also pretty suspect that Biden is somehow more popular in North Carolina than in New Hampshire.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting FL, NC and OH. Fried is our best candidate along with Stephanie Murphy, she is tied one poll with DeSantis. If CRIST loses Nomination, he will take on Rick Scott in 2024. Gweyn Graham should of ran for Senate not take a Cabinet post

DeWine is well liked by Minorities, but Josh Mandel is despised except for WC males, in OH, Ryan was tied in a Senate poll. Then, there is NC BEASLEY or Jackson can win.

230-241 H Dems and 55/45 Senate

Minorities, and Females are Understated in polls that's why Ds have more waves than Rs 92, 96, 2006, 08, 12, 18.  Rs 94, 2010, 2014

[It’s so Joever]

Why does Mohommad not believe in blue waves, he thinks everything is gonna be close, and he was the one that posted 60 percent approvals for Biden, D's believe in blue waves not close Elections.

Quran page 69:

R's think that Quraysh can beat the Muslims. Ha. Muslims will win due to fact Biden approvals 60 percent.  Mecca is not Medina and Islam will spread across the Wrld.😁😁😁  Cookie Damage thinks Jeddah statehood will happen.  No it won't.

Sour grapes🍇🍇🍇😭😭😭

Mohommad always post 60 percent Approvals, but when her predicts the state winners, he believes its gonna be close

Look D's will win the 303 Freiwall, but our H Majority to make Jefferies Speaker we need to win wave insurance seats in OH, IA, NC and FL to keep our H Majority

The Rs are trying to make McCarthy Speaker to steal the Election in 2024 and so are the R state Legislatures.

With a 55/45 Senate we will repeal the Filibuster and the voter suppression laws.  We can repeal them now but Tester, Sinema and Manchin are playing games

There is a myth about 2018, we won 33 seats in 2018, we didn't win them in 2017 and all the Rs are pointing to 2018 to prove it's not a wave and Biden has 59 percent Approvals

That makes sense - seems like Ds will win big in the H in 2022 due to fact Biden approvals so high. 😁

What Senate seats do you think Ds will gain?

How does wave insurance work exactly?  Do Democrats have to pay extra for pre-existing conditions?

Stop insulting the intelligence of OC.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Redfield & Wilton, May 8-9, 1500 RV (change from late March)

Approve 52 (-1)
Disapprove 36 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 25 (-1)

Other approval ratings (no priors):

Kamala Harris: 49/36 (strongly 25/28)
Mitch McConnell: 25/42 (strongly 9/26)
Nancy Pelosi: 38/41 (strongly 18/33)
Chuck Schumer: 30/34 (strongly 14/23)
Kevin McCarthy: 26/31 (strongly 10/21)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 44, R 37

Trump went down to -20 in approval after Charlottesville, I wonder if Biden will ever hit +20 in the polling averages. Biden is the exact opposite of Trump so far.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's achieve a 55/45 Senate then that's not far from 60, when you add DC and PR Statehood, D's will approve PR Statehood if they get 53 seats then we can enact anything we want without the Filibuster including Reparations for Afro Americans that's the motivation of Afro Americans GOTV.

Why I am invested in seeing a Speaker Jefferies and will certainly pit that on my User Predictions next yr, WHENEVER THE MODS TELL US WHEN THEY COME OUT, it's not that far from the 2021 cycle and we don't have VA and NJ maps

The Rs know fully well what a Trifecta can accomplish that's why they want Rs in control to stop it, by keep putting a myth up that we won 33 H seats in 2017 not 2018, waves don't happen a yr before Election

[Lief 🗽]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

This is probably an act but it is fun to look back at final Data For Progress polls:
AZ - Biden +3
CO - Biden +12
FL - Biden +3 (yikes)
GA - Biden +2
IA - Trump +2
ME - Biden +14
MI - Biden +5
MN - Biden +9
NV - Biden +7
NC - Biden +2


Too bored to go further but seems like their house effect in 2020 was D+5 or so.

Well yeah they weren't literally ten points off but this is still pretty bad!

[pbrower2a]

Redfield & Wilton, May 8-9, 1500 RV (change from late March)

Approve 52 (-1)
Disapprove 36 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 25 (-1)

Other approval ratings (no priors):

Kamala Harris: 49/36 (strongly 25/28)
Mitch McConnell: 25/42 (strongly 9/26)
Nancy Pelosi: 38/41 (strongly 18/33)
Chuck Schumer: 30/34 (strongly 14/23)
Kevin McCarthy: 26/31 (strongly 10/21)

Generic Congressional ballot: D 44, R 37

Trump went down to -20 in approval after Charlottesville, I wonder if Biden will ever hit +20 in the polling averages. Biden is the exact opposite of Trump so far.

Not surprising. Republicans can lose badly in 50-50 and more modestly in generally-favorable environments if seen as corrupt or extreme. which explains Bayh and McCaskill winning against nutcases in 2012 but losing in 2018 to less-extreme nominees, or how Tom Corbett could lose a governorship in Pennsylvania in 2014 in an excellent year for Republicans. All three cases involve the trivialization of rape ("legitimate rape" nonsense or a scandal by association with someone messing with children), a very bad political stance.

Joe Biden is of course a complete repudiation of Trump just as Trump is a complete repudiation of Obama. The distinction between the two cases is that Obama still had the perception as an above-average President (and will likely retain that) and Trump generally had a reputation as a below-average President (and will likely retain that) in historical assessments.

Obama has the mentality of a good prosecutor who may not grandstand but goes for the jugular in a court of law... and for good reason the Chicago machine wanted him out of the local scene as quickly as possible. Biden so far seems much the same... as one of those "do the crime and do the time" characters who don't have to say such but get such a result. Joe Biden has said nothing about federal criminal cases  including the Michigan plot and the January 6 insurrection. That is fine. The drama belongs in a court of law until after the settlement of the criminal cases. After that any convicted offenders are open to derision in the mass media. Kamala Harris, by the  way, leaves no doubt in her record as a prosecutor.

A D+20 or R+20 election is near the historical maximum, and it usually involves utter failure of the Other Side. That is FDR 1936, LBJ 1964, Nixon 1972, and Reagan 1984. Such happens rarely, and it usually involves a very weak opponent facing an incumbent in a strong position. I look at the opponent as either the restatement of a perceived failure (Landon 1936, Mondale 1984), or someone easily cast as a troublesome extremist (Goldwater 1964, McGovern 1972). So figure that the Republicans might nominate someone as ludicrous as Richard Murdock or Todd Akin in view of the ideological extremism of the current GOP or a Trump acolyte in an environment that holds Trump in contempt, and things can go very bad very fast for the GOP.

The Republicans have little chance of winning the Presidential election in 2024 unless the Biden Administration endures some calamity such as a diplomatic or military debacle or an economic meltdown. The incumbent has the built-in advantage of setting the agenda and defining the political debate. That is not enough if the incumbent is connected to failure (Hoover or Carter) or doesn't have a clue on running a competent (Ford) and spirited (the elder Bush) campaign.

As a rule I do not predict the results of civil or criminal cases yet to go to trial or on trial. I was wrong on OJ Simpson and on Scott Peterson when I relaxed that rule... and criminal trials can get capricious results. I'm not going to predict results of criminal cases involving the insurrection, but there have been plea bargains already in the Michigan plot that, like the January 6 insurrection, involves people closely connected to extreme expressions of Trump-friendly ideology.   

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/nick_field90/status/1392950872548777990?s=20

Subtract about ten points from each of these because it’s Data For Progress... and it’s not looking good. Yikes.

That NC poll has Biden with a 24% approval among NC Republicans. Anyone honestly believe that sh*t?!

[Badger]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

Because as office they might have been in Pennsylvania a year ago, these numbers are actually very consistent with Biden's across the board Nationa approval numbers for almost every pollster save Quinnipiac.

[pbrower2a]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

This is probably an act but it is fun to look back at final Data For Progress polls:
AZ - Biden +3
CO - Biden +12
FL - Biden +3 (yikes)
GA - Biden +2
IA - Trump +2
ME - Biden +14
MI - Biden +5
MN - Biden +9
NV - Biden +7
NC - Biden +2


Too bored to go further but seems like their house effect in 2020 was D+5 or so.

Again, 2020 was weird due to COVID-19. It may be that Democrats got complacent late in the season and Republicans did not. It could be that Democrats were unable to do their usual canvassing  and Republicans were able to get their message across.  I'm guessing that undecided voters went heavily R this time. Trump does offer excitement even if that excitement comes with the prospect of bad government.

"Off by five" means that some core assumptions are wrong. Were those wrong for assuming that core assumptions about the electorate from prior years were off or that 2020 would be normal? It is far too early to tell that.

It is a fair assumption that Donald Trump is toxic, at least after January 6.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We keep comparing polls to 2020 and Blks, Females, Arabs and Latinos were more sympathetic towards Rs before the Insurrectionists. They are often underpolled in many of these polls and we didn't win 33 H seats a yr before the Election, we won them with ads in late 2018.

It's 2021 not 2022, we need to wait til we get individual polling from all the statewide races, Approvals are just that Approvals

[pbrower2a]

We keep comparing polls to 2020 and Blks, Females, Arabs and Latinos were more sympathetic towards Rs before the Insurrectionists. They are often underpolled in many of these polls and we didn't win 33 H seats a yr before the Election, we won them with ads McCarthy n late 2018.

It's 2021 not 2022, we need to wait til we get individual polling from all the statewide races, Approvals are just that Approvals.

Still, approval numbers are portents of elections. We do not have many polls of potential matchups, and we especially don't know what the 2024 matchup will be. Incumbents usually have the ability to establish the themes of the impending election. Even though he still lost, Trump's Party was able to make anti-communist ads skewering Democrats in Florida; without these, Biden would have won Florida. If Biden isn't particularly nice to a "pink" regime in Venezuela and a "red" regime in Cuba, then Republicans stand to not do as well in Florida with 30 electoral votes. That will be more than enough to cover for the most likely two states that Republicans can flip from 2020 to 2024 (Arizona and Georgia) and adequately offset the third-closest Biden win (Wisconsin).

The 36-62 number in West Virginia does look like a plausible result there, does it not?

Approval is the best proxy that we have for the next election. That is all that it is, and all that it will ever be. That held for Dubya and for Clinton. Trump had wild swings, but still never could get his approval number into the high-40's. Sure, he had the late surge, but it came from too far behind.

Can President Biden keep his approval numbers at this level? Probably not. If he does, then he ends up with something between 320 and 375 electoral votes (Texas is borderline right now, and I have nothing on Ohio).       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The first poll out of OH had Ryan tied with Josh Mandel and all R challengers, it was a PPP, but DeWine probably has a 60% approvals he will win Reelection

Ryan has a 50% Approval rating that's why he can overcome an 8 pt deficit in OH, Biden lost by

Just like Sherrod Brown can overcome 8 pt deficits when he wins time and again Reelection.
Renacci in 2018 wasn't a weak candidate, as Rs claim he was, Brown and Ryan have 50% Approvals

[pbrower2a]

DeWine handled COVID-19 well, and politicians who meet a real problem well generally get re-elected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is cool towards female officeholders, the reason why Strickland did so poorly was due Hillary, in 2016. Betty Sutton ran for Lt Gov and Failed in 2018, by the way Renacci is leading DeWine 44/35% in a Primary poll, but the fact is Whaley as a female is the underdog in OH

The next female Gov is Molly Kelly or Maura Healey in MA and NH

This state hasn't Elected a female as Gov or Sen just like PA hasn't, but IA, WI, MN have

Stephanie Murphy can of course be Elected due to Nikki Fried the state of FL has elected Nikki Fried

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeWine handled COVID-19 well, and politicians who meet a real problem well generally get re-elected.

It's Ohio. He would get re-elected even if he failed miserably. However, isn't he relatively unpopular with Trump cultists to the point that he might get a primary challenge? I'm sure he'll survive it and that they'll vote for him anyway in the general election, but it's a real microcosm of what the Republican Party of today is.