Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note to GOPers in order for them to take the H they are gonna have to win Ballot test they haven't won since 2016 by 1 lousy pt

The Gingrich Revolution offered term limits and balance budgets what does Mccarthy offer oil drilling and tax cuts for rich which we as voters voted out 100 days ago with Trump

The Rs aren't gonna take the H,not with Biden at 59 percent Approvals

Trump lost the H at 46 Percent approvals, Cali Redistricting is gonna ensure our H Majority

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's important to note to GOPers in order for them to take the H they are gonna have to win Ballot test they haven't won since 2016 by 1 lousy pt

The Gingrich Revolution offered term limits and balance budgets what does Mccarthy offer oil drilling and tax cuts for rich which we as voters voted out 100 days ago with Trump

The Rs aren't gonna take the H,not with Biden at 59 percent Approvals

Trump lost the H at 46 Percent approvals, Cali Redistricting is gonna ensure our H Majority

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1393644745616932866

That said, there's little sign that Trump is even on the minds' of most voters these days. He's not on Twitter, and Google searches for him are way down. Indeed, there's not much of a sign that the GOP's association with Trump is hurting them at this point.

Take a look at the generic congressional ballot. Democrats hold a slight lead of about 3 to 4 points in an average of polls. Trump lost the 2020 election by 4.5 points, and House Republicans lost nationally by 3.1 points.

In other words, Republicans are in no worse position than they were in the 2020 election. In fact, they're actually polling better now on the generic ballot than they were heading into the last election by about 3 to 4 points because polling across the board underestimated Republicans.

If Republicans were underperforming their baseline, you'd expect them to be doing worse than what President Joe Biden's approval ratings would suggest. Biden's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among voters is just north of +10 points, which is actually more than double the Democrats' advantage on the generic ballot.

When we look at the limited data, as compiled by Ethan Chen, from special legislative elections throughout the country during the Biden administration, we see a similar trend.
Comparing the results in those elections to the 2020 presidential election in those districts, we see that there hasn't been much movement on the whole.

Examining all special elections where at least one Democrat and one Republican ran, Republicans are outperforming their 2020 baseline by 3 points on average. Not counting those elections with multiple Democrats or Republicans running (i.e. jungle primaries) or with a major independent candidate, Republicans are matching their 2020 position.

Keep in mind that even a small tick toward the Republicans would have resulted in a very different outcome in 2020. Biden won the state that put him over the top in the Electoral College (Wisconsin) by less than a point. Republicans were just 5 seats away from getting a House majority and a mere 1 seat from earning a Senate majority.

They don't need a lot of things to change to win back the House or the Senate in 2022.
Republicans only need their 2020 base and a little more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Insurrectionists Commission is being set up and there will be accountability, the Generic ballot is tied and ever since  history only  Prez with 44% Approvals have lost seats in Congress Biden is at 50%Approvals

D's don't have to win FL, OH, Ia or NC but the Rs have to win MI, PA and WI in order to win the Prez and Whitmer, Evers and Shapiro will win and so will WARNOCK, Fetterman, Nelson and Hassan

That proves that this poll is bogus

Cali will give us 5 net new seats in Redistricting padded to the 5 which will give us 10, in a Neutral Environment, D's can still hold the Trifecta but D's need 53 seats, to break Filibuster, Tester is also squishy on negating Filibuster, along with Sinema and Manchin

The Rs aren't gonna win. mI, WI and PA they trail Whitmer and Kelly by 10 pts



Why do Rs think that D's will lose and all D's have to win MI, MI, PA, CO, NV, NH, ME 2 IL, NY, Cali and VA

They only won MI, WI, PA once since 1988 on a spoiler Gary Johnson, in 2016

D's can still win wave insurence seats in 500 days OH Ryan can beat Mandel, Mandel who performed poorly in 2012 and NC with BEASLEY or Jackson can beat McCrory

Again all McCarthy offers is the same failed policies of Trump whom left office 100 days ago oil drilling and tax cuts for rich not term limits or balance budget

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, May 4-7, 1249 adults including 1075 RV (change from April 19-21; it looks like they've settled into a twice-monthly frequency)

Adults:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (-2)

RV:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-1)

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, May 4-7, 1249 adults including 1075 RV (change from April 19-21; it looks like they've settled into a twice-monthly frequency)

Adults:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (-2)

RV:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-1)

The needle really isn't moving.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news in TX, McCounghey is planning on a run for TX Gov if thats the case, that's game, McCounghey is 12 pts ahead of Abbott and McCounghey will solidify our D gains in TX, but we haven't an official announcement

[pbrower2a]

DeWine handled COVID-19 well, and politicians who meet a real problem well generally get re-elected.

It's Ohio. He would get re-elected even if he failed miserably. However, isn't he relatively unpopular with Trump cultists to the point that he might get a primary challenge? I'm sure he'll survive it and that they'll vote for him anyway in the general election, but it's a real microcosm of what the Republican Party of today is.

Ohio is a better environment for Democrats than is either Indiana or Missouri. In the latter two, Democrats won Senate seats against extremists running for Senate seats in 2012 only to lose them to less-absurd nominees in 2018. Should Republicans of the Trump variety successfully defeat DeWine in a primary election, then Democrats have a chance of winning the Gubernatorial office.

Ohio may be drifting to the Right as most of its cities largely hemorrhage population while the rural population stays put... but not fast enough to ensure an R victory for an extremist.       

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave insurance Ryan can win at the same time Renacci or DeWine wins, since the state split it's votes between Gov and Sen in 2018, many state Legislatures and Govs are split

NC split it's votes between Gov Cooper and Tillis in 2020, the Election isn't over with we have 500 days for wave insurance and Biden has a 59%

Plus Josh Mandel maybe the nominee and he performed poorly in 2012 against Brown

If Election was decided 500 already Jeanne Shaheen would of lost to Brown in 2013 not 2014, she was trailing

Beasley and Ryan are wave insurence, we may need 53 votes instead of 52 due to Tester, Sinema and Manchin are blocking Filibuster reform and NC, OH are winnable

That's why Hassan will win, Shaheen was in a similar hole that Hassan finds herself in with SUNUNU, Shaheen came back and so will Hassan 500 days from now

Whaley will lose, PA and OH are the only two states not electing a female SEN or Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remember OH has a 20 percent Arab and Afro American population that voted for Trump by 8 pts before the Insurrectionists, but were turned off along with Females after the Insurrectionists and young voters too.

We won OH, NC and FL in 2008/12 with Biden as Veep to Obama it's not WC male Farm state like IA

Biden was leading the weekend before 2020 Election in a QU poll, in OH it's in the poll database

[pbrower2a]

It will be easy to explain Ohio votes after the fact, but we will see contradictory positions explaining why one thread is more valid than others before the election of either 2022 or 2024.

I can easily imagine the Ohio state legislature trying to enact laws that disenfranchise D-leaning voters as has happened in other states. I can also imagine Democrats pushing through 100% postal voting nationwide (fill out ballot, deliver it to the post office and it will be sent anywhere) to thwart such. When every post-office becomes an effective drop-off place for any vote, then many electoral shenanigans become impossible.

So what is going to happen? You tell me! 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I know is that the state along with PA are the only swing states along with FL and VA that haven't elected a Female Gov and Sen, explaining why Strickland post by 20 pts

NC, WI, MN, IA, MI, NH, NC have

2016 was the last time Rs did well and cracked the blue wall because of Benghazi and Lewinsky Hillary we know Biden can win IA, OH, NC, FL, GA and AZ, we won all of them in 2008/12, 2018 and 2020

We have 500 days til the Election we don't know what the wave will be but as I said before we didn't win 33 H seats in 2017, we won them in 2018, anything can happen in 50o days and Biden has a high Approvals

[Hope For A New Era]

NPR/Marist, May 4-7, 1249 adults including 1075 RV (change from April 19-21; it looks like they've settled into a twice-monthly frequency)

Adults:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 41 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 30 (-2)

RV:

Approve 53 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 32 (-1)

The needle really isn't moving.

He's pretty much locked at +10 by this point.

There are worse places to be stuck.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it isn't moving we are still in a Covid ENVIRONMENT, when Covid is Eradicated, you will see his number move

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Biden is only 4 pts not double digits ahead of Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's lose in 2022 the H, Manchin keeping the Filibuster will be the biggest strategic error in modern history and he would lose anyways in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guess UNCLE JOE ISNT AT 59% AS MANY POSTED IN THIS THREAD ALREADY

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 15-18, 1500 adults including 1239 RV

Adults:

Approve 51 (nc)
Disapprove 41 (+2)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 30 (nc)

RV:

Approve 51 (-1)
Disapprove 43 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-1)

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden approvals is at 59 per cent, but Sir Mohammed still thinks Rs gonna take House. He isnt 51 per cent prez. Trump is 46% prez due to fact he has insurrection behind him and Covid environment 😝

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are in a Neutral Environment that can blossom into. A blue wave in 500 days it depends on the Commission and Covid

[pbrower2a]

The difference between two pollsters can be:

1. genuine change in political reality, which is more likely to be reflected over several months than between two different pollsters in a short time-frame

2. the difference in the model that two different pollsters use -- in essence, the difference between two models of the electorate.

3. statistical noise

The first is rarely sudden unless it involves a breaking scandal. Most change in polling results is slow because perceptions are slow to change. How long would it take for people to recognize that the economy is in meltdown?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are in a Pandemic some polls are of course gonna be pessimistic on D's chances, Rs want to blame the Trump Covid Recession on Biden and he just gave everyone 1400 cheques and the still are ungrateful especially the Politicians whom keep voting against Biden agenda, while they continue to vote for his Cabinet

That why yesterday we had a 4 pt race between Biden and Trump and again today we have a double digits

Just like media keep talking about Speaker Mccarthy and we are 500 days out from Election and they need something to talk about, talk about Rs measuring the drapes, they haven't won the PVI since Obama administration and Benghazi and Hillary was just cleared of all wrongdoing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Close polls again 49Trump, Harris 45%, the other poll was an IPSOS poll that showed double digits for Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before UNCLE JOE ISNT AT 59% AFTER ALL BUT 51/49%

A 51/49 Senate , losing GA, is Inevitable and who knows about the H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hate to say it but Alice Stefanic has stopped the bleeding of the R party, the polls were going in the wrong direction with Liz Cheney, but now, with a steady Caucus chair, at least in the H, Rs can win the Majority

Throw IPSOS IN THE TRASH

And if Rs win the H there goes Hunter Biden probe

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hate to say it but Alice Stefanic has stopped the bleeding of the R party, the polls were going in the wrong direction with Liz Cheney, but now, with a steady Caucus chair, at least in the H, Rs can win the Majority

Throw IPSOS IN THE TRASH

And if Rs win the H there goes Hunter Biden probe

She's just the worst, isn't she?