Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

You can’t weight for Party ID because the vast majority of people will just answer that they are the party of the candidate they just said they would vote for and/or approve/disapprove of.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCarthy just went on natl TV like Ron Johnson did and commuted s gaffe and said the stimulus was a poidon pill. That isnt gonna bode well in Cali, for Rs in recall, since he is from Bakersfield and Newsom passed a 600 Stimulus and will hurt Rs in Orange COUNTY

[Sir Mohamed]

CBS News/YouGov, March 10-13, 2382 adults (1-month change)

Approve 62 (+1)
Disapprove 38 (-1)

Strongly approve 36 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (nc)

Stimulus bump?

Yup, very much looks like. I just hope voters, who are usually known for a short time memory, will actually remember next year and in 2024. The GOP chose to be on the other side here because they couldn't stomach Biden getting a major policy win here.

[VAR]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

[Sir Mohamed]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

Seems like a bit low for NY, especially that Biden is in mid 50s or low 60s territory nationally. But well, that poll also found Cuomo above water with regard to resignation.

[Roblox]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

Seems like a bit low for NY, especially that Biden is in mid 50s or low 60s territory nationally. But well, that poll also found Cuomo above water with regard to resignation.

I believe Biden was at 64/30 favorable in the same poll.

[pbrower2a]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

I still prefer a favorability poll to one like this that has an ambiguous response and only one unambiguously-derogatory but two laudatory categories.

[VAR]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

I still prefer a favorability poll to one like this that has an ambiguous response and only one unambiguously-derogatory but two laudatory categories.

Biden’s favorability is 64/30 (+34)

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

[BudgieForce]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!

https://www.nhpr.org/post/trump-asks-how-stupid-are-people-iowa#stream/0

Trump's famous "How stupid are the people of Iowa" rant.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All hail the Selzer! If they are finding the Hawkeye state approving of him he really might be getting a bump. I don't see the American peoples' memories of this lasting through next year though. Let's just savor it while we can.

[It’s so Joever]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

!

[BudgieForce]

That Selzer poll might be one of the best state polls Biden has gotten in awhile. Or we really do live in a reality where Biden has better approval numbers in Iowa than he does in New Hampshire.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa and New Hampshire were close to each other from 2000 to 2012 in voting.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NY - Siena College
March 8-12
805 registered voters
MoE: 4.1%

Excellent 28%
Good 26%
Fair 18%
Poor 23%

I still prefer a favorability poll to one like this that has an ambiguous response and only one unambiguously-derogatory but two laudatory categories.

Biden’s favorability is 64/30 (+34)

Poughkeepsie Joe.

[sting in the rafters]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Eighteen states. President Biden has positive approval in a state that he lost by 8%. Selzer is one of the best pollsters around, and this and lackluster polling for Iowa Republicans suggest that Iowa is back to swing-state status.  

I have rejected an excellent-good-fair-poor poll of New York State by Siena. Favorable numbers for Biden are still at 34%, which keeps New York in the starkest category of red.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

I'm assuming we're all smart enough to know by now that whenever a poll of a white (or almost entirely white) population, shows 47/44 in favor of a Democrat with 9 "undecided", it's really 47/53.  Those 9% undecided are Rs who don't want to admit to themselves that they're Rs yet.

I've seen this movie before, not falling for it this time. That said, if Biden's pulling 47% support in Iowa that's reason to believe he's in the mid-50s nationwide.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa Republicans took a big gamble on COVID-19, and that gamble paid off well... to providers of mortuary services. Iowa Republicans could have acted like Ohio Republicans, and this would have saved them. I recognize of course that political opinion in Iowa can swing like the weather in a climatic zone exposed to nearly everything. But this is a bad poll for the Iowa GOP, which will have a Senate seat up for contest. This poll suggests that Iowa is practically back in tandem with Wisconsin, which has similar demographics. Being a toady of Donald Trump after he was defeated and then disgraced as no other President has been might not be good for political survival in a state that has been moderately liberal in recent times.

OK, watch for an Ohio poll. Ohio voted in tandem with Iowa in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but its Republican Governor bucked Donald Trump on COVID-19. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Massachusetts: UMass-Amherst, March 5-9, 800 adults

Approve 62
Disapprove 34

Other approvals:

Gov. Charlie Baker: 52/39
Sen. Edward Markey: 53/30
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 55/34
MA state legislature: 51/31
U.S. Congress: 33/57

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts: UMass-Amherst, March 5-9, 800 adults

Approve 62
Disapprove 34

Other approvals:

Gov. Charlie Baker: 52/39
Sen. Edward Markey: 53/30
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 55/34
MA state legislature: 51/31
U.S. Congress: 33/57

Oregon, DHM Research. March 7-14.

I am going to take "positive" as a surrogate for "approve" and "negative" as a surrogate for "disapprove".

President Joe Biden:

Strong positive 28%
Somewhat positive 25%
Somewhat negative 12%
Strong negative 28%

Don't know 7%

Biden does about as well with white people as with "people of color"; he is strong in the Portland metropolitan area and to a slightly lesser extent in the Willamette Valley; outside of that (the thinly-populated coast and the areas east of the Cascades) not so well.   He does better among college-educated people than among others, sort-of-OK among voters over 65 or under 30, but well among the rest.

The Democratic Governor's approvals are not so great. 38% positive, 56% negative, so she (Kate Brown) has her work cut out for her for getting re-elected.

https://www.dhmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/DHM-Panel_data-release-1-March-2021.pdf

 

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Maybe but it is also possible (and probably more likely) than their poll is simply oversampling left leaning voters.

[pbrower2a]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Maybe but it is also possible (and probably more likely) than their poll is simply oversampling left leaning voters.

The question is often "who will vote", and on that, pollsters can be very wrong. Sometimes a big chunk of the electorate can get confused about what it wants and decide to not vote.

I wouldn't read more into a poll than what it says. I can see other possibilities:

1. Iowa is amenable to populists. Love him or hate him, Trump ran populist campaigns. A populist campaign from the Left could win in Iowa against some staid or stale pol.

2. Donald Trump found a way to relate to Iowa. My suspicion is that the more that people knew about Trump in 2016, the less that they liked him. This explains why he did so badly in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York. Usually if one is from somewhere, one has some positive connection to the local culture.

3. Iowa swings wildly in polling. I could show you times when I was convinced that Trump would lose Iowa  in 2020 (this was during the trade war in which China threatened to buy far fewer agricultural commodities from American farmers. That was going to hurt Trump's chances in winning Iowa and Ohio. At that point, Trump had disapproval ratings in the mid-50's in Ohio and near 60 in Iowa. One does not win with those numbers.

Trump opened the spigot on farm subsidies, which is good politics... but horrible public policy. You do not want your politicians using the treasury to buy votes. You want more practical measures of solving problems. Give up on the trade war, maybe?

4. It is not certain that Joe Biden will be a steady-hand leader, but if he is, then his approval ratings can stick even if they are narrow margins. Changing one's policies capriciously is a bad sign.

5. Republican pols handled COVID-19 badly. Iowa pols wanted the riverboat gambling casinos to stay busy and generate revenue... never mind that people would contract COVID-19 there. Contrast Michigan, which practically shut down its casinos

   

[wbrocks67]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Maybe but it is also possible (and probably more likely) than their poll is simply oversampling left leaning voters.

Not really, Ernst and Grassley both have net positives and even Trump has a +3 approval rating, so I'd say it's probably accurate with the balance. Since I was shocked to see Trump with a positive approval rating tbh.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wow, even the dumbest state in the union approves of our President!
https://twitter.com/_dinger_s/status/1371494001329770500?s=21

Maybe but it is also possible (and probably more likely) than their poll is simply oversampling left leaning voters.

Not really, Ernst and Grassley both have net positives and even Trump has a +3 approval rating, so I'd say it's probably accurate with the balance. Since I was shocked to see Trump with a positive approval rating tbh.

I'm not sure how do you get these numbers but it is not what the poll is showing. According to this poll most Iowans have a unfavourable opinion of Trump and it is not even close (44 favourable vs 53 unfavourable), for a state that Trump won by a 53/45 margin such numbers are hard to believe. As for Ernst she is at -2 for the approval rate, hard to believe considering she was reelected by 7.

Then you have that : '' Among self-identified partisans, Biden’s approval and favorability ratings fall along party lines, pollster J. Ann Selzer noted: 94% of Democrats have favorable feelings, versus 8% of Republicans. His job approval rating is similarly partisan, with 91% of Democrats approving of his performance, compared to 9% of Republicans. Independent Iowans are more split on Biden's job performance, with 43% approving, 44% disapproving, and 13% not sure. The split continues in how favorable they feel toward him: 49% have favorable feelings, 47% have unfavorable feelings and 5% are not sure. ''

The IA electorate, per exit polls, was in 2020 38% independent / 36% R /26% D, if you do some maths Biden would have with a such electorate a -4 or a -5 approval rate, certainly not a +3 one.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1371588922854273037?s=20

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1371588922854273037?s=20

Interesting for showing an occupational group.