Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Mar. 10-11, 1001 adults

Approve 54 (-4)
Disapprove 39 (+4)

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden's real time numbers are in the 51-55 range and will likely stay there for some time.  He will retain his 51+ base, will never get the hardcore 43-44 who will do anything for Trump, and the remaining 4-5 percent will be up for grabs based on what goes on.

The good news is the hardcore 43-44 Trumpistas won't increase and will drop off through attrition.

As for Trump--he is off the mainstream media path and is basically ignored these days.  Good riddance.  

[Tender Branson]

GA (Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage)

41% approve
56% disapprove

MO (Remington)

43% approve
53% disapprove

[Bootes Void]

Biden is not -15 in Ga and lower than Missouri lol

[Tender Branson]

Biden is not -15 in Ga and lower than Missouri lol

It's Trashfalgar.

Biden is probably at 50-44 or something in GA right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we still looking at Traggie polls

[pbrower2a]

Florida - Mason-Dixon
February 24-28
625 registered voters
MoE: 4%

Disapprove 49%
Approve 47%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/410602-poll-shows-support-but-vulnerability-for-marco-rubio

This is just hilarious.

Shows what we all know:  Florida is a red state.

 

Still close to the electoral result, and better than for Biden in 2020.  This narrow margin still bodes ill for the GOP because Biden will be running on his record, and the anti-Communist smear against Biden and Democrats in general in Florida in 2020 will not be so effective in 2024. Biden is not going to kiss up to Maduro or Raul Castro, so Republicans will not have that attack available.

St. Leo is really a lousy pollster anyway.

49% approval usually wins in a state if such is so at the beginning of the election year.  

New Hampshire, St. Anselm's College. Biden approval 50%, disapproval 49%:

strongly disapprove  43
somewhat disapprove 6
somewhat approve  15
strongly approve 50


https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Images/NHIOP/SACSurveyBook321.pdf#page=13

GA (Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage)

41% approve
56% disapprove

MO (Remington)

43% approve
53% disapprove

Trashing Trafalgar but taking Remington. No way is Biden doing that badly in Georgia. It's likely closer to 50-50. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a new and credible poll involving Georgia soon. We see little from Missouri, and beggars can't be choosers.

Seventeen states; one more makes it one third if you count Dee Cee as a state for all practical purposes in the 2024 election.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[It’s so Joever]

Are you seriously trashing Trafalgar after 2020?

[ꙮ]

Are you seriously trashing Trafalgar after 2020?

When they’re showing Biden -15 in Georgia? Yes??

[Annatar]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

[BudgieForce]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

[Annatar]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

While this is true for education, party ID is fluid; attempting to weight on it is fraught with problems.  Party ID is not a demographic characteristic.

[Annatar]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

While this is true for education, party ID is fluid; attempting to weight on it is fraught with problems.  Party ID is not a demographic characteristic.

Party ID at the national level is pretty stable, 2016 was D+3, 2018 was D+4, 2020 was D+1, polls that vary to much from that need to be looked at with scrutiny.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

While this is true for education, party ID is fluid; attempting to weight on it is fraught with problems.  Party ID is not a demographic characteristic.

Party ID at the national level is pretty stable, 2016 was D+3, 2018 was D+4, 2020 was D+1, polls that vary to much from that need to be looked at with scrutiny.

The Election is ,20 mnths away

[pbrower2a]

Are you seriously trashing Trafalgar after 2020?

If I can trash St. Leo polls, I can reject Trashy Fallacious Garbage polls too.

The success of a pollster usually relates in any year above all else to what electorate turns out. If the liberal-leaning potential voters of the electorate fail to come out to vote, then at the extreme the most conservative pollsters such as Rasmussen are right. If the liberal-leaning marginal voters come out to vote or the conservative-leaning pollsters fail to come out to vote, then such liberal-leaning pollsters as Quinnipiac are right.

Years for voting beginning in 2000, based on liberal-to-conservative:

2008
2006
2018
2012
2020
2016
2000
2004
2002
2014
2010

If you have some other idea of how to order those years, then tell me. Better yet, I am starting a thread in the Electoral Trends area, where your opinions might be relevant as those seat-of-the-pants guesses are over twenty years and eleven elections. 

[Hope For A New Era]

GA (Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage)

41% approve
56% disapprove

MO (Remington)

43% approve
53% disapprove

lol, that's great

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we looking so hard at polls 20 mnths before an Election just like Rs believe Sununu soft six pt lead in a state NH is gonna last 20 months, ha

[pbrower2a]

Selzer just polled Iowa on approval of its two Senators. Both Grassley and Ernst are slipping. That has little relevance for Ernst, who will be around until 2026 due to the 2020 election that she won. But Iowans seem to want Chuck Grassley to retire at the end of his term.

Should there be a Presidential approval poll in Iowa the results could be interesting. I was reading for that, but... well it wasn't there this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is blocking Biden agenda, the voters didn't put her in office again to Obstruct

[pbrower2a]

Ernst is blocking Biden agenda, the voters didn't put her in office again to Obstruct

Iowa voters expected her to well serve the Trump Presidency, according to their 2020 vote. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is blocking Biden agenda, the voters didn't put her in office again to Obstruct

Iowa voters expected her to well serve the Trump Presidency, according to their 2020 vote. 

Yeah, but Ernst ran on the popularity of Kim Reynolds and she has restricted voting rights in the state, that isn't bipartisanship

That's why voters are rebelling against Grassley I'm the polls

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News/YouGov, March 10-13, 2382 adults (1-month change)

Approve 62 (+1)
Disapprove 38 (-1)

Strongly approve 36 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (nc)

[Horus]

CBS News/YouGov, March 10-13, 2382 adults (1-month change)

Approve 62 (+1)
Disapprove 38 (-1)

Strongly approve 36 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 28 (nc)

Stimulus bump?

[pbrower2a]

The stimulus can solve lots of problems, including jump-starting the economy and making people feel good again.

Wars cost money, and Biden is willing to spend the money to win the war.