Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m truly not trying to be rude to some of you, but it strains credulity to believe that a president with a -10 approval is going to see his party win the midterms by 8 points, one of the largest midterm victories in American history.

It’s insanity to believe it, and ZERO 2021 results suggest it. Zero.

You guys are all among the smartest election geeks online, and you truly believe that yougov gcb poll? Jeez

You truly believe that ONE single poll is definitive?  I think it's probably an outlier in both directions -- Biden probably isn't down by that much, and the Democrats aren't up by that much in GCB.   The 538 average (which isn't perfect, but is very much sounder than RCP) currently has Biden at -5 and the GCB at D+3.  Those are both more reasonable, and a much more plausible combination.

[Matty]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

[wbrocks67]

See, that's why polls for Biden should be taken with a grain of salt than Trump polls.

Democrats consistently do not say everything you'd expect them to (i.e. be fully supportive of Biden just because, or say "Better off" just b/c they want to support Biden). They'll be honest and write About the same if that's what they really want.

However, with Trump fanatics, I guarantee nearly all of them (or a much bigger %) picked "worse off", while Dems were more split, so that's why "Worse Off" is actually higher than Better off.

Though even among Dems, I'm not sure how 45% would still pick About the same. Objectively, between the two bills, nearly every human alive would benefit in some way. No one would really be "worse off", despite what Trumpkins want to believe.

[kwabbit]

I’m truly not trying to be rude to some of you, but it strains credulity to believe that a president with a -10 approval is going to see his party win the midterms by 8 points, one of the largest midterm victories in American history.

It’s insanity to believe it, and ZERO 2021 results suggest it. Zero.

You guys are all among the smartest election geeks online, and you truly believe that yougov gcb poll? Jeez

You truly believe that ONE single poll is definitive?  I think it's probably an outlier in both directions -- Biden probably isn't down by that much, and the Democrats aren't up by that much in GCB.   The 538 average (which isn't perfect, but is very much sounder than RCP) currently has Biden at -5 and the GCB at D+3.  Those are both more reasonable, and a much more plausible combination.

A -5 approval and D+3 GCB are still extremely incongruent. The only recent times where the GCB was close in midterm elections, 1998 and 2002, presidential approval was in the mid-60s. A +30 approval can limit your losses, but if Biden is going into November 2022 with a -5 approval, the GOP is going to win the CGB. Obama was only around -3 in 2010, and only -10 in 2014, causing 7 and 6 point wins for the GOP. A president doesn't need to be that unpopular for his party to suffer big losses in Congress.

Biden would have to be at least +10 for the Dems to not lose the House. Much of the talk about Dems gaining in 2022 revolved around the possibility that Biden would be extremely popular after a successful end to the pandemic. The possibility of Biden being that popular come 2022 is very very low.

[kwabbit]

See, that's why polls for Biden should be taken with a grain of salt than Trump polls.

Democrats consistently do not say everything you'd expect them to (i.e. be fully supportive of Biden just because, or say "Better off" just b/c they want to support Biden). They'll be honest and write About the same if that's what they really want.

However, with Trump fanatics, I guarantee nearly all of them (or a much bigger %) picked "worse off", while Dems were more split, so that's why "Worse Off" is actually higher than Better off.

Though even among Dems, I'm not sure how 45% would still pick About the same. Objectively, between the two bills, nearly every human alive would benefit in some way. No one would really be "worse off", despite what Trumpkins want to believe.

The impact of the bills would be positive for nearly every American, but it's not like it would be life changing for the vast majority. Therefore 'about' the same.

Answering these type of questions in a partisan, insincere manner is not new. In 2019, basically everyone who said the economy was good was GOP, and everyone who said the economy was bad was Dem. The economy was good, and Dems were answering in a clearly partisan manner. This is not a GOP phenomenon, it's that the out party centers itself on opposing the in party's agenda and accomplishment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m truly not trying to be rude to some of you, but it strains credulity to believe that a president with a -10 approval is going to see his party win the midterms by 8 points, one of the largest midterm victories in American history.

It’s insanity to believe it, and ZERO 2021 results suggest it. Zero.

You guys are all among the smartest election geeks online, and you truly believe that yougov gcb poll? Jeez

You truly believe that ONE single poll is definitive?  I think it's probably an outlier in both directions -- Biden probably isn't down by that much, and the Democrats aren't up by that much in GCB.   The 538 average (which isn't perfect, but is very much sounder than RCP) currently has Biden at -5 and the GCB at D+3.  Those are both more reasonable, and a much more plausible combination.

A -5 approval and D+3 GCB are still extremely incongruent. The only recent times where the GCB was close in midterm elections, 1998 and 2002, presidential approval was in the mid-60s. A +30 approval can limit your losses, but if Biden is going into November 2022 with a -5 approval, the GOP is going to win the CGB. Obama was only around -3 in 2010, and only -10 in 2014, causing 7 and 6 point wins for the GOP. A president doesn't need to be that unpopular for his party to suffer big losses in Congress.

Biden would have to be at least +10 for the Dems to not lose the House. Much of the talk about Dems gaining in 2022 revolved around the possibility that Biden would be extremely popular after a successful end to the pandemic. The possibility of Biden being that popular come 2022 is very very low.
[/quote
You know the Election isn't today, D's were expected to win 10H seats in 2017 we won 40 13 mnths is a lifetime in politics

[2016]

CNN was the worst Pollster during the 2020 Election...

CNN = Communist News Network.

It's laughable how far CNN has fallen...just leftwing Propaganda Day in and Day out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL GET OVER IT Trump LOST ALREADY HES NOT WINNING IN. 2024 EITHER

BUSH W and Liz Cheney said they will do everything yr o stop Trump 2024, he's not running against Hillary ANYMORE

DIDNT YOU GET YOUR 1400 STIMULUS CHECKS IF RS won GA, we would have only gotten 600 the Rs objected to 1400 due to Debt Ceiling but we spent 8T on two Wars

Trump supported 2K but Rs and Johnson and Mcconnell only wanted 600.

Now, I am waiting for  my 600 as part of Biden 1=9 To states like Cali can give us 600

[pbrower2a]

Trump has a cult. He excites people even if he offends more.  Biden is the opposite.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We have talked about how YouGov's results can vary depending on which client they're for due to different weights, etc.  But here's a wrinkle that never occurred to me:

https://twitter.com/MarkMellman/status/1448346639975043084

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1448286975803416580?s=20

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1448372735269289992?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trends for C-rated CNN
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/10/13/rel6a.-.biden.infrastructure.economy.pdf

Adults
50 (-2)
49 (+1)

RV
50 (no change)
50 (no change)

[wbrocks67]

We have talked about how YouGov's results can vary depending on which client they're for due to different weights, etc.  But here's a wrinkle that never occurred to me:

https://twitter.com/MarkMellman/status/1448346639975043084

This is certainly interesting and very much a possibility.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m truly not trying to be rude to some of you, but it strains credulity to believe that a president with a -10 approval is going to see his party win the midterms by 8 points, one of the largest midterm victories in American history.

It’s insanity to believe it, and ZERO 2021 results suggest it. Zero.

You guys are all among the smartest election geeks online, and you truly believe that yougov gcb poll? Jeez

You truly believe that ONE single poll is definitive?  I think it's probably an outlier in both directions -- Biden probably isn't down by that much, and the Democrats aren't up by that much in GCB.   The 538 average (which isn't perfect, but is very much sounder than RCP) currently has Biden at -5 and the GCB at D+3.  Those are both more reasonable, and a much more plausible combination.

A -5 approval and D+3 GCB are still extremely incongruent. The only recent times where the GCB was close in midterm elections, 1998 and 2002, presidential approval was in the mid-60s. A +30 approval can limit your losses, but if Biden is going into November 2022 with a -5 approval, the GOP is going to win the CGB. Obama was only around -3 in 2010, and only -10 in 2014, causing 7 and 6 point wins for the GOP. A president doesn't need to be that unpopular for his party to suffer big losses in Congress.

Biden would have to be at least +10 for the Dems to not lose the House. Much of the talk about Dems gaining in 2022 revolved around the possibility that Biden would be extremely popular after a successful end to the pandemic. The possibility of Biden being that popular come 2022 is very very low.

Eh…the 2021 special elections point to a slight shift towards Republicans. Granted that lags approval a bit, but still, a D+1 electorate is probably what we have right now (but Dems still lose House AND Senate with that)

[compucomp]

We have talked about how YouGov's results can vary depending on which client they're for due to different weights, etc.  But here's a wrinkle that never occurred to me:

https://twitter.com/MarkMellman/status/1448346639975043084

This is certainly interesting and very much a possibility.

Unless the hypothesis is that there are people who partially answered the survey and those people lean Dem, then this is effectively accusing the second poll of being a push poll, when the poll just asked people about the issues first. If getting people to think about the issues causes them to disapprove of Biden, then that's not a very good sign either when during a campaign people will be constantly reminded of these issues.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes. 

I do think we'll get something. I just don't know what or when.

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes. 

I do think we'll get something. I just don't know what or when.

Not a lot of time left to get anything.  They probably have until next Spring.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Lol you are looking at polls a yr before the Election Stop worrying

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes.  

I do think we'll get something. I just don't know what or when.

Not a lot of time left to get anything.  They probably have until next Spring.

Its 400 days til the Election, your Dream.of an R Govt Lol what did Trump do differently than Biden do in a Pandemic

,Wave a magic wand and Covid disappears should Rs get back lol that's wishful thinking, the Rs are party of the rich not poor

We weren't even vaccinated under Trump until Biden on the Hospital workers got vaccinated under Trump

If Rs take control Biden still have Veto pin for 2 yrs and a Govt shutdown will be bad for Rs for 2024/ it would not be on Pelosi it would be on McCarthy like Gingrich failed in 1995 on a Govt shutdown and got Clinton reelected for 1996

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marty and Rs love to post in an Approval rating the Election isn't until Nov 2022/ not 2021 and didn't say a word when Biden was at ,61% when he gotten his 1400 checks, if RS held onto Senate we would of had on 600 dollars, McConnell wanted on 600 that's why they lost GA McConnell blocked 1400

[It’s so Joever]

I’m starting to think maybe Biden is the Macron of America.
Think about it, both were underdogs at first who arguably got very lucky (Biden in the primaries, Macron from the start up to the first round) and then managed to win against a far right populist with a coalition of suburbanites and disgruntled leftists.
The main difference is that Macron actually won in a relative landslide, but I attribute that to France being still less polarized than the US.
Now, both are very unpopular. If you think Biden isn’t unpopular, you are a hack. (And if you think Macron isn’t unpopular, you have time travelled back to 2017) However, both do appear to be leading in polls (well for Dems it’s the GCB) The accuracy of these polls obviously can be questioned.

The Trump Le Pen comparison might work as well. Le Pen has been the likely opponent against Macron for a while (although that could be changing) and Trump is essentially the likely opponent if he chooses to run again (let’s be honest, he will)
Idk random thoughts but it’s clear Biden isn’t the next FDR, although I still am unsure about the Carter comparison given the differences.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I’m starting to think maybe Biden is the Macron of America.
Think about it, both were underdogs at first who arguably got very lucky (Biden in the primaries, Macron from the start up to the first round) and then managed to win against a far right populist with a coalition of suburbanites and disgruntled leftists.
The main difference is that Macron actually won in a relative landslide, but I attribute that to France being still less polarized than the US.
Now, both are very unpopular. If you think Biden isn’t unpopular, you are a hack. (And if you think Macron isn’t unpopular, you have time travelled back to 2017) However, both do appear to be leading in polls (well for Dems it’s the GCB) The accuracy of these polls obviously can be questioned.

The Trump Le Pen comparison might work as well. Le Pen has been the likely opponent against Macron for a while (although that could be changing) and Trump is essentially the likely opponent if he chooses to run again (let’s be honest, he will)
Idk random thoughts but it’s clear Biden isn’t the next FDR, although I still am unsure about the Carter comparison given the differences.

I’d say he is more like the next LBJ. Good ideas however a foreign policy event beyond their control brings their approvals down