Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Mr.Phips]

Florida - Mason-Dixon
February 24-28
625 registered voters
MoE: 4%

Disapprove 49%
Approve 47%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/410602-poll-shows-support-but-vulnerability-for-marco-rubio

This is just hilarious.

Shows what we all know:  Florida is a red state.

[Mr.Phips]

Gallup, March 1-15, 1010 adults (1-month change)

Approve 54 (-2)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

It is obviously far too early to tell whether this approval rating will hold, but should it hold President Biden is looking into an electoral victory in which he gets about 400 electoral votes. This is the zone in which the President gets 53-57% of the popular vote, and President Biden would look into an Eisenhower-scale win in popular votes.

President Biden has so far dodged controversy well. It is still early. Nobody successfully dodges controversy predictably and reliably as President.

Trump was never at this level, and if it isn't quite near the top for Obama, it is within the Obama range. Obama got re-elected decisively.

Obama also had an awful first midterm that basically made it so he couldn’t get anything of consequence done for the rest of his Presidency and greased the wheels for someone like Trump to succeed him with a fully Republican congress.

[Mr.Phips]

TX is not going D anytime soon

Its either that or they gotta do better in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Forget about Florida and Iowa.  They just have to keep winning the latter two.

[Mr.Phips]

Biden now has a higher approval rating than Bill Clinton had at this point in his presidency.

Hopefully Biden's first midterm isn't as disastrous as Clinton's

Probably not possible as Dems had about 40 more House seats going into 1994 than they do now.

[Mr.Phips]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

Subtracting ten means Biden lost PA by three.  He won by one, so it’s more like subtract six.

[Mr.Phips]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

2022 is all that matters right now.

[Mr.Phips]

Biden's agenda has stalled. Where is the transformational President who we were hearing wanted to remembered like FDR for providing reforms and policy changes for regular Americans? He isn't using all the tools in his toolbox to get meaningful things passed.

You can blame Manchin and Sinema above all else, almost single-handedly, honestly. I don't know if most Americans will assign that blame where it belongs, but this is the reality of our current state.

Nobody should have expected Biden to get anything done other than the COVID relief bill.  The days of “transformational presidents” who get a lot done are over.

[Mr.Phips]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 10-13, 1500 adults including 1292 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 43 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)


RV:

Approve 49 (-2)
Disapprove 45 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+1)


Don't get too worked up; this week's sample is significantly more Republican and conservative than last week's.

With all due respect, polls have a significant tendency to underestimate and under-sample Republicans. I certainly find 50-50 or 45-52% approvals for Biden far more realistic than 60% approvals.

If going by the 2020 poll bias, Biden’s approval number is probably correct, but his disapproval is likely higher than polls are showing.  He’s probably around 51%-47% (where the popular vote was in 2020).

[Mr.Phips]

Gallup has Biden at 50-45

.

Trump never been at 50% he was at 45, so stop criticizing Biden in a Covid Environment

What part of what he said was criticizing Biden?

On the other hand, Biden is underwater on two Civiqs polls, 43-49 for job approval and 45-50 for favorability. With that said though, I'd take the job approval one with a slight grain of salt since it also has him underwater (41-44) with the 18-34 demographic, though it's likely that demographic doesn't approve of him much because he's not progressive enough on some policy?

That job approval poll also shows him BADLY underwater with independents, 32-57. Also take that with a slight grain of salt.

Link to job approval poll: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Link to favorability poll: https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

The civiqs state polls like ridiculous.  Negative approval in Delaware?

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder what the root cause for Biden's mixed approval is. If it's related to his agenda being seen as too progressive, he might actually get more popular once he loses congress like Bill Clinton did, though certainly not to the same extent.

This didn’t really happen for Obama.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder what the root cause for Biden's mixed approval is. If it's related to his agenda being seen as too progressive, he might actually get more popular once he loses congress like Bill Clinton did, though certainly not to the same extent.

This didn’t really happen for Obama.

True, but it happened to Trump to a small extent.

Trump didn’t get appreciably more popular when he lost the House.

[Mr.Phips]

Gonna go officially negative within two weeks. Foreign policy was not a weak spot for biden, will be now.

Who the hell cares about Afghanistan? 

[Mr.Phips]

It'll go back up.

It seems like the media is going to win this round by just constantly talking about Afghanistan like it's still 10 AM Monday morning and completely ignoring everything the Biden administration has done since then or the current situation on the ground.  And America's great collection of dupes is going to just lap it up uncritically.

This is leading a lot of Democrats to turn on Biden.  When I look at Twitter, a lot of my left-leaning follows are trashing Biden.  The polling shows that both Democrats and Republicans are unsure what their positions are supposed to be -- do we support getting out of Afghanistan or not?  But the media has given everyone a clear vector to attack Biden: it could have been done better!

The thing is, everyone will forget about this in a couple weeks.  All the Americans are going to come home safe and sound.  The administration will do the best it can to get all the SIVs out who want to leave.  We'll probably be faced with lots of images of horror and tragedy in Afghanistan, but the administration can ask one simple question:  Do you want to re-invade Afghanistan and pick up where we left off?  I think for most people the answer is no.  Republicans will also probably raise a stink about the number of refugees Biden is bringing into America, allowing him to get on the right side of that issue.

But either way it's good that this is happening in August 2021 and not October 2024.

October 2022 is far more important than October 2024.  Democrats cannot afford another midterm wipeout.

[Mr.Phips]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

Is this a surprise?  Florida has been gone for Democrats since 2012 and the sooner they realize it the better.

[Mr.Phips]

Joe Biden's approval is now worse than Obama's was at the time of the 2010 elections:





To put things in perspective: Trump's approval at the time of the 2018 elections was roughly -9. He polled 6 points below his national polling numbers in 2016, and Republicans did about 6 points worse in the national congressional vote than Trump did for President. Biden is now polling about 12(!) points worse in approval vs his national polling numbers in 2020. That would suggest an upper single-digit Republican romp nationally in 2022 if it stays.

It's worth pointing out that it's possible that this is Biden's low point. Trump had an awful first year of approval and, against historical precedent, trended upwards in approval as time went on. But that's not typical, and so far Biden's presidency is following a more traditional approval trend (downward as time goes on). Democrats' hope to hang on to power relies on him bouncing back significantly and this being a unique blip.

Biden is polling six points worse than his national numbers in 2020, not 12 (51%-45%=6%).  Dems would be looking at something like a 2010/2014 popular vote edge for Republicans in 2022 (between five and seven points). 

[Mr.Phips]

Joe Biden's approval is now worse than Obama's was at the time of the 2010 elections:





To put things in perspective: Trump's approval at the time of the 2018 elections was roughly -9. He polled 6 points below his national polling numbers in 2016, and Republicans did about 6 points worse in the national congressional vote than Trump did for President. Biden is now polling about 12(!) points worse in approval vs his national polling numbers in 2020. That would suggest an upper single-digit Republican romp nationally in 2022 if it stays.

It's worth pointing out that it's possible that this is Biden's low point. Trump had an awful first year of approval and, against historical precedent, trended upwards in approval as time went on. But that's not typical, and so far Biden's presidency is following a more traditional approval trend (downward as time goes on). Democrats' hope to hang on to power relies on him bouncing back significantly and this being a unique blip.

Biden is polling six points worse than his national numbers in 2020, not 12 (51%-45%=6%).  Dems would be looking at something like a 2010/2014 popular vote edge for Republicans in 2022 (between five and seven points).  

Margin, not raw %. He was at +7.2 in RCP's national average before the election and is at -4.6 now. Now, I have a large range of possibilities in mind for 2022 because how "off" these polls are compared to how off the election ones were is a genuine question, but if this is the case on election day R+ mid to upper single digits is the most plausible outcome.

The 2018 national polling was actually pretty accurate.  Obama was at -11 on Election Day in 2014:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_bush_first_term_job_approval.html

Again, Biden’s approval in this range likely results in a 2010/2014 popular vote (five to seven points)and similar number of House seats (238-248 range).

[Mr.Phips]

Seems highly likely Biden could do poorly among 18-29 grouping. Gen Z is very progressive, very anti-establishment. They could disapprove of Biden, but that does not mean they will vote GOP en masse.

Yep. Just because they disapprove of Biden right now doesn't mean they are going to vote for a R anytime soon.

If Biden's unpopularity holds, which is certainly possible though not guaranteed, I think the 2024 election could look a lot like the California recall, which is to say that Demcoratic voting demographics will still come home when the choice becomes clear.

The tipping point state in the electoral college is FAR more conservative than California.

[Mr.Phips]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

Selzer has of course proven to be the gold standard, but for this to be true, we'd likely be looking at about a Biden -20 approval nationally, give or take.

Iowa is the exact type of state (heavily white and not as many college educated voters) where you would expect to see Biden’s approval drop much more than nationally.

[Mr.Phips]

IA-Selzer

9/12-9/15 (changes from June)
31% approve (-12)
62% disapprove (+10)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/president-joe-biden-job-approval-rating-plunges-after-afghanistan-covid-surge/8378224002/

This state is so gone for Democrats it’s not even funny. Could see it voting 15-16 points to the right of the nation in 2024 (it was 11 points more R than the nation in 2020).

Honestly, if it is actually this bad, Miller or Fitzgerald could absolutely go down. It's just remarkable how quickly this state shifted to safe R, though 60% disapprove is still a bit high for the state atm imo, Biden is probably down at least 10 nationally, if these are the IA numbers

Iowa will likely be voting like Missouri in 2022 and 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

Perhaps not a popular take, BUT: If these numbers are in the same territory in early 2023, Biden might actually decide not to seek reelection. We're probably going to lose the majority in at least the House next year, leading to complete legislative stalemate. I mean, we're already struggling to get things through congress. Never since Truman has a reelected prez manage to win back majorities. So why should Biden, in his early 80s, continue to hang around for another 4 stressful years and not get much done since the GOP will continue to refuse to pass meaningful laws? His main purpose to jump in the race last was to remove Mr. Trump from power, which he did. Of course Trump running again may change his calculation.

If I were Biden in this situation, I’d just say let the country have Trump in 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

The thing is that Biden should know better after being Obama’s Vice President for eight years.

[Mr.Phips]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

This has been the case for years now and hasn’t mattered in elections at all.  The party holding the White House has had a wave against their party in every midterm since 2006.

[Mr.Phips]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

Agreed.  Our current system may have worked at one time, but does not anymore.  A structure that favors having only two parties just leads to each party doing nothing but try to make the other party look bad.

[Mr.Phips]

Did people actually think that this wouldn’t happen?  Of course Dems are “alarmed” as they never prepare ahead for anything and never learn from previous mistakes (I.e. 1993/1994 and 2009/2010). 

[Mr.Phips]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes.