Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Niemeyerite]

The Hispanic vote swing big for democrats after the party took their vote seriously this time gives me hope in the future. Maybe Zapata et al was just a fluke and all we need is a bit more campaigning en español.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Hispanic vote swing big for democrats after the party took their vote seriously this time gives me hope in the future. Maybe Zapata et al was just a fluke and all we need is a bit more campaigning en español.

I was thinking the exact same thing. This makes me hopeful that the Republican swing to Trump in 2020 was either a fluke due to Trump himself having some sort of unique fluke appeal to Hispanics  (maybe with the exception of Cubans in Miami-Dade) or due to Democrats unilaterally disarming with limited ground game (which seemed justified at the time) due to the pandemic.

 For all the faults Democrats have, we at least learn lessons well, and potentially the Hispanic snap-back here demonstrates how important ground game and turnout will be as electoral priorities going forward.

[Adam Griffin]

Took Upshot's data on 8 different groups between 2016-2020 & 2020 GE-2020 runoff; virtually everywhere in the state shifted Democratic over the past 4 years.

Suburban and majority-Latino areas saw the greatest D shift; urban along with heavily college-educated & white non-college areas saw the least D shift. High-income, majority-black and rural areas were in the middle.

[GALeftist]

Worth noting here is that the Democrats' campaigning in non-English languages was nuts, especially for a state like Georgia which is overwhelmingly English speaking, especially compared to other reddish states like Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Not only was there Spanish language outreach, there was Korean, Vietnamese, pretty much everything and the kitchen sink. Really hope this continues and that the national Democrats take notes.

[Oryxslayer]

Since everyone's obsessing about Gwinnett/North DeKalb and other Hispanic areas, I should probably ask the million dollar question: for those with the precinct data immediately open on their version of GIS, is there a difference in comparative turnout between Hispanic and nearby areas? Essentially, how many voters showed up, what's their numbers compared to November turnout in the same precinct, and how does it match against neighboring non-Hispanic precincts.

This of course has to be asked because another theory about what happened in November with non-Cuban Hispanics is that both Democrats and Republicans turned out as much of their reliable Hispanic voters as possible, but the GOP put in the extra effort for unreliable but GOP-leaning Hispanics, perhaps because Dems couldn't put in comparable extra effort thanks to COVID campaign restrictions. A notable turnout discrepancy would suggest that there wasn't really a swing, but more a case of all the unreliable voters doing their normal thing.

[Adam Griffin]

A notable turnout discrepancy would suggest that there wasn't really a swing, but more a case of all the unreliable voters doing their normal thing.

From what I've seen in my own county's precincts (which is the most Latino in the state) as well as a sampling of others in the metro, this appears to the actual culprit for the margin shift.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Hispanic vote swing big for democrats after the party took their vote seriously this time gives me hope in the future. Maybe Zapata et al was just a fluke and all we need is a bit more campaigning en español.

Yeah, this is arguably the most important takeaway from this election. Here's hoping Democrats take it to heart.

[QAnonKelly]

Worth noting here is that the Democrats' campaigning in non-English languages was nuts, especially for a state like Georgia which is overwhelmingly English speaking, especially compared to other reddish states like Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Not only was there Spanish language outreach, there was Korean, Vietnamese, pretty much everything and the kitchen sink. Really hope this continues and that the national Democrats take notes.

Yeah, the GA playbook really needs to be played in TX especially.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are there enough votes left to push Loeffler below 49%? I want to see that happen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Are there enough votes left to push Loeffler below 49%? I want to see that happen.

I would count on it. iirc raffensberger said over 4.5 mil ballots

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And lo!

Biden will have a secular trifecta.

[n1240]

Are there enough votes left to push Loeffler below 49%? I want to see that happen.

yes

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

[Adam Griffin]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

[Tender Branson]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

The SoS Page now seems to run ahead of the NYT.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ossoff 2,260,424 (50.55%)
David Perdue 2,210,914 (49.45%)
= Ossoff +49,510 (1.10%)

Raphael Warnock 2,279,559 (50.98%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,191,836 (49.02%)
= Warnock +87,723 (1.96%)

Where are you getting these numbers from?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

Ah, thanks! Looks like they're ahead of both NYT and DDHQ now.

[Tender Branson]

How many active registered voters were there for the runoffs ?

I can only find active/inactive/total numbers for November.

There were 7.23 million active registered voters in November, so maybe 7.25 million now ?

Turnout: 62%

[Хahar 🤔]

Worth noting here is that the Democrats' campaigning in non-English languages was nuts, especially for a state like Georgia which is overwhelmingly English speaking, especially compared to other reddish states like Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Not only was there Spanish language outreach, there was Korean, Vietnamese, pretty much everything and the kitchen sink. Really hope this continues and that the national Democrats take notes.

As a Fulton County voter, I got bilingual literature addressed to me in English and Bengali. Unfortunately the Bengali was completely unreadable due to encoding issues that should not exist in any computer from after 1998, but it was the thought that counted.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ossoff has hit his MUH NEEDLE estimate (+1.11 right now). Warnock is at +1.96, which also rounds to his +2 estimate, but I'd like to see him actually get up there.

[Adam Griffin]

How many active registered voters were there for the runoffs ?

I can only find active/inactive/total numbers for November.

There were 7.23 million active registered voters in November, so maybe 7.25 million now ?

Turnout: 62%

Several hundred thousand people were purged post-election via existing state laws.

For the runoff, there were 6,573,006 active RVs. With a current turnout of 4,478,402, that's 68.13% turnout.

In November, there were 7,233,584 active RVs. With a turnout then of 4,998,482, that's 69.10% turnout.

Yes: runoff turnout was almost identical as a share of active voters as the presidential election.

[Adam Griffin]

[Tender Branson]

How many active registered voters were there for the runoffs ?

I can only find active/inactive/total numbers for November.

There were 7.23 million active registered voters in November, so maybe 7.25 million now ?

Turnout: 62%

Several hundred thousand people were purged post-election via existing state laws.

For the runoff, there were 6,573,006 active RVs. With a current turnout of 4,478,402, that's 68.13% turnout.

In November, there were 7,233,584 active RVs. With a turnout then of 4,998,482, that's 69.10% turnout.

Yes: runoff turnout was almost identical as a share of active voters as the presidential election.

Purging hundreds of thousands of registered voters in GA actually makes sense.

Previously, GA had more registered voters than the Census estimates showed for the total voting-age population in GA.

That is impossible.

I assume GA had a lot of registered voters before who never really voted, then moved to other states or abroad, or died.

[Tender Branson]

Yes: runoff turnout was almost identical as a share of active voters as the presidential election.

If we apply the new, corrected number of active RVs (6.573 million), November turnout would be 76% - more in line with other swing states.

GA really seemed to have a lot of virtual RV only on its rolls, people that don't exist anymore.

The 76% is much more credible.

[Adam Griffin]

How many active registered voters were there for the runoffs ?

I can only find active/inactive/total numbers for November.

There were 7.23 million active registered voters in November, so maybe 7.25 million now ?

Turnout: 62%

Several hundred thousand people were purged post-election via existing state laws.

For the runoff, there were 6,573,006 active RVs. With a current turnout of 4,478,402, that's 68.13% turnout.

In November, there were 7,233,584 active RVs. With a turnout then of 4,998,482, that's 69.10% turnout.

Yes: runoff turnout was almost identical as a share of active voters as the presidential election.

Purging hundreds of thousands of registered voters in GA actually makes sense.

Previously, GA had more registered voters than the Census estimates showed for the total voting-age population in GA.

That is impossible.

I assume GA had a lot of registered voters before who never really voted, then moved to other states or abroad, or died.

Yes: runoff turnout was almost identical as a share of active voters as the presidential election.

If we apply the new, corrected number of active RVs (6.573 million), November turnout would be 76% - more in line with other swing states.

GA really seemed to have a lot of virtual RV only on its rolls, people that don't exist anymore.

The 76% is much more credible.

Well, GA's eligible registration for the November election among active RVs was 95% of VEP: makes sense given AVR being implemented in the state for 4 years at that point and the vast majority of people who weren't previously registered having 5-year, $20 driver licenses (AVR is made possible through DMV) instead of the 8-year, $32 license that disproportionately is used by older and wealthier cohorts. Including inactive RVs, GA's registration figure was approximately 102% of VEP as you referenced.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7659804#msg7659804

But nevertheless and using apples-to-apples comparison among turnout for active RVs, it looks like turnout as a share will only dip by about 0.6-0.7 points (once all votes are counted): perfectly explainable given almost one billion dollars was spent for the runoffs.