Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Хahar 🤔]

This is what it looked like the last time Vernon Jones ran for Senate. Jones is red on the left (Democratic primary) and blue on the right (Democratic primary runoff).



Seeing as that he clearly did not get a lot of white votes, I wonder how many people there might be to vote for Vernon Jones in the primary both 2008 and 2022.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think people are overestimating how fast GA is moving left. States don’t always trend linearly, I bet this state will still be highly competitive until at least 2026. Warnock may not even be the favorite for 2022 at this point.

Even Virginia was competitive for 8+ years

I agree. VA Republicans still had one last hurrah in the 2009 gubernatorial election, and were competitive in the 2012 Presidential Election and 2013 gubernatorial.

2022 will be competitive in GA, as will 2024.

[Ogre Mage]

It is notable that both Warnock and Ossoff won while running as mainstream Democrats in Georgia.  Not to mention that one is black and the other is Jewish.  In the past we would have gotten a Joe Manchin, John Breaux or Zell Miller conservative Democratic Senator from the South.  The Peach State also voted for a Yankee Democrat (Biden) for president.  The only other Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state in the last 30 years was Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner.  Georgia is now a battleground state.

[Horus]

This is what it looked like the last time Vernon Jones ran for Senate. Jones is red on the left (Democratic primary) and blue on the right (Democratic primary runoff).



Seeing as that he clearly did not get a lot of white votes, I wonder how many people there might be to vote for Vernon Jones in the primary both 2008 and 2022.

That was an eternity ago in Georgia politics. Jones is public enemy number 1 here in DeKalb and would put together a coalition of radical Trumpers and maybe a few scattered hoteps (if they vote). Not enough to win the state, he'd be toxic in the white burbs like Alpharetta and Roswell. Even more toxic than Loeffler.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1348366502953709576

The insanity.

Jesus

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA proved a warning ⚠️ to Rs that 2022 may not be an R yr, usually in Runoffs, or Special Elections, inparty loses

[GP270watch]

It is notable that both Warnock and Ossoff won while running as mainstream Democrats in Georgia.  Not to mention that one is black and the other is Jewish.  In the past we would have gotten a Joe Manchin, John Breaux or Zell Miller conservative Democratic Senator from the South.  The Peach State also voted for a Yankee Democrat (Biden) for president.  The only other Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state in the last 30 years was Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner.  Georgia is now a battleground state.

 This is why the idea you need a mushy moderate to win Southern states is nonsense. You just need the right electorate to show up and the right candidate. Warnock and Ossoff ran on solidly progressive policies even if they're not progressive firebrands and actually moved left for the runoff.

 Democrats need to keep developing their bench and making clear the stark policy differences between The Democratic Party popular platform and the Republican Party's failed policies.

[Roll Roons]

It is notable that both Warnock and Ossoff won while running as mainstream Democrats in Georgia.  Not to mention that one is black and the other is Jewish.  In the past we would have gotten a Joe Manchin, John Breaux or Zell Miller conservative Democratic Senator from the South.  The Peach State also voted for a Yankee Democrat (Biden) for president.  The only other Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state in the last 30 years was Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner.  Georgia is now a battleground state.

 This is why the idea you need a mushy moderate to win Southern states is nonsense. You just need the right electorate to show up and the right candidate. Warnock and Ossoff ran on solidly progressive policies even if they're not progressive firebrands and actually moved left for the runoff.

It depends on which Southern states we're talking about. A mainstream Democratic campaign like the ones Ossoff and Warnock ran did work in Georgia, would easily work in Virginia and could in North Carolina, Florida and possibly Texas. But a JBE-type Democrat was probably the only one who could have won in Louisiana, just like how only a Phil Scott or Charlie Baker-type Republican would be electable in Vermont or Massachusetts.

[Tender Branson]

1/3rd of GA counties have official results now and Löffler dropped below 49%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

1/3rd of GA counties have official results now and Löffler dropped below 49%.

Where do you see that? The SoS website has her at 49.00%.

[Adam Griffin]

It is notable that both Warnock and Ossoff won while running as mainstream Democrats in Georgia.  Not to mention that one is black and the other is Jewish.  In the past we would have gotten a Joe Manchin, John Breaux or Zell Miller conservative Democratic Senator from the South.  The Peach State also voted for a Yankee Democrat (Biden) for president.  The only other Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state in the last 30 years was Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner.  Georgia is now a battleground state.

Sorry, it's just not there yet.

[MT Treasurer]

It is notable that both Warnock and Ossoff won while running as mainstream Democrats in Georgia.  Not to mention that one is black and the other is Jewish.  In the past we would have gotten a Joe Manchin, John Breaux or Zell Miller conservative Democratic Senator from the South.  The Peach State also voted for a Yankee Democrat (Biden) for president.  The only other Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state in the last 30 years was Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner.  Georgia is now a battleground state.

 This is why the idea you need a mushy moderate to win Southern states is nonsense. You just need the right electorate to show up and the right candidate. Warnock and Ossoff ran on solidly progressive policies even if they're not progressive firebrands and actually moved left for the runoff.

It depends on which Southern states we're talking about. A mainstream Democratic campaign like the ones Ossoff and Warnock ran did work in Georgia, would easily work in Virginia and could in North Carolina, Florida and possibly Texas. But a JBE-type Democrat was probably the only one who could have won in Louisiana, just like how only a Phil Scott or Charlie Baker-type Republican would be electable in Vermont or Massachusetts.

I’m pretty sure the type of campaign Ossoff ran wouldn’t even have worked in FL and NC, but I agree with you overall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1/3rd of GA counties have official results now and Löffler dropped below 49%.

Where do you see that? The SoS website has her at 49.00%.

49.001% to be precise. C'mon, almost there....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just want to correct the record, Bagel and Caltrina made fun of my prediction that Ossoff and WARNOCK were gonna win and French Republican, now Bagel is doing a 180 and now says GA Senate is Likely D in 2022😆😆😆

Bad Predictions

[President Johnson]

Not sure this has been discussed yet, but according to Wikipedia, Warnock will become junior senator because of his last name and Ossoff preceding him alphabetically.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not sure this has been discussed yet, but according to Wikipedia, Warnock will become junior senator because of his last name and Ossoff preceding him alphabetically.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUNXZhmTvjI

Warnock's last name screwing him over yet again

[WD]

I just want to correct the record, Bagel and Caltrina made fun of my prediction that Ossoff and WARNOCK were gonna win and French Republican, now Bagel is doing a 180 and now says GA Senate is Likely D in 2022😆😆😆

Bad Predictions

Drag them, king.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any updates on when Ossoff and Warnock will be sworn in?

[lfromnj]

Not sure this has been discussed yet, but according to Wikipedia, Warnock will become junior senator because of his last name and Ossoff preceding him alphabetically.

An interesting tiebreaker would be rather than use last name, maybe they could use margin of victory as the penultimate tiebreaker?

[sguberman]

Am I the only person who thinks it's possible Loeffler voted for Clinton in 2016?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Am I the only person who thinks it's possible Loeffler voted for Clinton in 2016?

No, originally she actually was pretty “moderate” but once she was appointed she definately changed

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I just want to correct the record, Bagel and Caltrina made fun of my prediction that Ossoff and WARNOCK were gonna win and French Republican, now Bagel is doing a 180 and now says GA Senate is Likely D in 2022😆😆😆

Bad Predictions

I say tilt D for 2022 now, you are literally lying. I am also capable of admit listening learning from mistakes and adapting. Also most of my other predictions were good.

[Roll Roons]

Now that the results are mostly settled, what percentage of the Black vote did Perdue and Loeffler get?
I heard Isakson got nearly 20% in 2016, which is really good for a Republican in the South. Though there's no way either of them came close to this mark.

Would also be curious about the Asian vote, given how they're becoming increasingly important in Georgia.

[Gracile]

Results by congressional district, so far-

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1348716379113971714

GA-06 stands out as one district where Perdue/Loeffler did better than Trump.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Results by congressional district, so far-

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1348716379113971714

GA-06 stands out as one district where Perdue/Loeffler did better than Trump.

I don't remember where in this thread someone posted a map of the swing between the presidential race and the Ossoff-Perdue runoff, but the red arrows in the Cobb and Fulton parts of the district were massive. Not Starr-tier, but to the point that without observing the turnout dynamics elsewhere in the state one would be pretty worried that the Suburban King Perdue memes were true enough for Roswell bougies to hand the GOP a fairly solid victory.