Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Worth noting here is that the Democrats' campaigning in non-English languages was nuts, especially for a state like Georgia which is overwhelmingly English speaking, especially compared to other reddish states like Florida, Texas, or Arizona. Not only was there Spanish language outreach, there was Korean, Vietnamese, pretty much everything and the kitchen sink. Really hope this continues and that the national Democrats take notes.

As a Fulton County voter, I got bilingual literature addressed to me in English and Bengali. Unfortunately the Bengali was completely unreadable due to encoding issues that should not exist in any computer from after 1998, but it was the thought that counted.

This makes me think back to a church in Chattanooga that had these big bilingual signs out front many years ago that (I believe) were catering to the Korean Christian population: the characters were all English vowels/ASCII characters with a variety of accent marks above them like "áâÝéÒàâåìøú".

[VAR]

Lauren McDonald did worse than Jon Ossoff.

[Brittain33]

Oh look, you can see the county in North Georgia where Trump held his rally.

[wbrocks67]

Ossoff has hit his MUH NEEDLE estimate (+1.11 right now). Warnock is at +1.96, which also rounds to his +2 estimate, but I'd like to see him actually get up there.

I mean, again, just wow at the needle literally being *right* on the money.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has hit his MUH NEEDLE estimate (+1.11 right now). Warnock is at +1.96, which also rounds to his +2 estimate, but I'd like to see him actually get up there.

I mean, again, just wow at the needle literally being *right* on the money.

Nate Cohn made some comments before the GE that the 2020 needle was *much* smarter than the 2016 version, but required precinct-level data by vote modality, which is only available in real time from some states (GA, NC, FL being the 2020 competitive states among them).  He was right.

[walleye26]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

[UncleSam]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

If current population trends hold it’ll become VA for sure. The Atlanta metro area is just getting bigger and bigger as a share of the vote in the state, whereas the research triangle / Charlotte etc. are staying pretty constant in NC. Plus Dems are winning the Atlanta MSA by more and more every cycle.

2022 will be the last competitive election cycle in GA. If Warnock loses then his opponent will be beyond DOA in 2028, and if Rs hold the governors mansion whoever succeeds Kemp will lose decisively, probably even in a Dem midterm year.

AZ seems to be trending slower and will remain competitive throughout the decade, I would guess. Trump also had a uniquely bad relationship with Arizona moderates that the rest of the GOP doesn’t seem to have. I’ll bet Rs hold the governor’s mansion there until the next R-president midterm, at which point it’s gone for good. And I’d also bet there will be at least one more R senator there before it trends out of competitiveness.

[Tintrlvr]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

The difference with North Carolina, which I think many people (including myself) did not appreciate in 2008, is that the Democrats were overperforming among rural white voters in North Carolina relative to other Southern states in the 00s (possibly because rural North Carolina is relatively industrialized compared to the rest of the South), and therefore still had considerable room to fall among rural white voters over the next decade, which counterbalanced strong Democratic trends in the cities. Much, though not quite all, of that room has now been fallen, so I do expect North Carolina to start moving leftward again soon. But, more to the point at hand, that's absolutely not the case in Georgia, where the Democrats have already hit rock-bottom in the rural white vote, and have basically been there for at least a decade.

[Roll Roons]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

The difference with North Carolina, which I think many people (including myself) did not appreciate in 2008, is that the Democrats were overperforming among rural white voters in North Carolina relative to other Southern states in the 00s (possibly because rural North Carolina is relatively industrialized compared to the rest of the South), and therefore still had considerable room to fall among rural white voters over the next decade, which counterbalanced strong Democratic trends in the cities. Much, though not quite all, of that room has now been fallen, so I do expect North Carolina to start moving leftward again soon. But, more to the point at hand, that's absolutely not the case in Georgia, where the Democrats have already hit rock-bottom in the rural white vote, and have basically been there for at least a decade.

The thing about North Carolina is that Democrats still might have room to fall in the rural areas. Biden got over 40% in Transylvania, while hitting 37% in Madison and 36% in Haywood and Polk. These are among the very few rural white counties in the South where Democrats can still hit numbers like that. What if they start voting over 70-75% R?

[wbrocks67]

Warnock and Abrams will be on the same ticket too in 2022, so I'd be surprised if they both lost, unless something crazy happens.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

The difference with North Carolina, which I think many people (including myself) did not appreciate in 2008, is that the Democrats were overperforming among rural white voters in North Carolina relative to other Southern states in the 00s (possibly because rural North Carolina is relatively industrialized compared to the rest of the South), and therefore still had considerable room to fall among rural white voters over the next decade, which counterbalanced strong Democratic trends in the cities. Much, though not quite all, of that room has now been fallen, so I do expect North Carolina to start moving leftward again soon. But, more to the point at hand, that's absolutely not the case in Georgia, where the Democrats have already hit rock-bottom in the rural white vote, and have basically been there for at least a decade.

The thing about North Carolina is that Democrats still might have room to fall in the rural areas. Biden got over 40% in Transylvania, while hitting 37% in Madison and 36% in Haywood and Polk. These are among the very few rural white counties in the South where Democrats can still hit numbers like that. What if they start voting over 70-75% R?

Transylvania and Madison are college counties, so they have a bit of an elevated floor, and educational attainment in western NC in general is higher than expected for Appalachian/rural Southern areas. There's still some room to fall, but most of it has likely already happened, and if Asheville's regional political influence grows further and educational realignment continues counties like those could even rebound a hair.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Excellent map, thank you!

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It was Whites+20 (51-31) among 1.78 million ballot requests for the GE.

Now, it’s Whites+26 (56-30) with 1 million requests so far.

Doesn’t look all too promising, but who knows ...

Biden won mail in ballots 65-34.... there are definitely going to be more Dems voting in person in this race because of the shorter turnaround.

Y'all can't resist finding doom and gloom in every stat.

I'm applying here the same logic as in the early vote in Florida: the numbers we have already aren't great for Dems and evidence suggests Election Day voters tend to lean more to the right. And it was the correct call. So if Warnock wins the race, I will change my avatar and name to "Glory to Blue Georgia" for a month.

Are you still going to do this?

[Adam Griffin]

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

Relatively little movement: 112 of 159 counties swung less than 2 points one way or another.

There are some striking patterns, though (including obvious racial turnout differentials and the effect of media markets on the northern and southern ends of the state; Warnock had similar issues during the primary).

[South Dakota Democrat]

I WANT A BIG DUMP NOW!!!!!!!!

True, constipation sucks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

Relatively little movement: 112 of 159 counties swung less than 2 points one way or another.

There are some striking patterns, though (including obvious racial turnout differentials and the effect of media markets on the northern and southern ends of the state; Warnock had similar issues during the primary).

Thanks! Yeah, I wasn't expecting big swings obviously, but where these swings happened is certainly instructive.

I kinda wish you'd used 2-point increments rather than 3-point ones though. That would have made it easy to visualize a "trend" map, since the swing was about 2 points. I know it's my fault for not asking.

[libertpaulian]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

[Oryxslayer]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

Dems really don't. it's a deception of the fact that GA has tons of counties, so the Black Belt population is more visible. Dem's would appear to look better for example if you split a 35K population county like Bladen NC in two along the river, with on side being slightly R-Leaning and the other being overwhelmingly GOP.

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

Good chance they aren't majority-AA anymore, we just need up-to-date census info.

[wbrocks67]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

how is that possible? do those black voters just not turn out?

[wbrocks67]

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

Relatively little movement: 112 of 159 counties swung less than 2 points one way or another.

There are some striking patterns, though (including obvious racial turnout differentials and the effect of media markets on the northern and southern ends of the state; Warnock had similar issues during the primary).

I mean, 47 counties moving 2+ points either way seems pretty big.

Clayton County was huge. Wasn't that one of the biggest shifts?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why do Democrats seem to do better in rural Georgia than they do in other Deep South states?

They don't. Biden/Ossoff/Warnock actually lost a few Majority Black rural Counties, unlike in Alabama or Mississippi.

how is that possible? do those black voters just not turn out?

although a few majority-black counties in Georgia may be something like 51% black in terms of population or CVAP, but the people who turn out on election-day are majority white.

Early County is an example.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Are there any meaningful number of votes remaining to be counted?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ossoff will go on to win by ~40k. Mark my Words.

Pretty close.

[Farmlands]

Ossoff will go on to win by ~40k. Mark my Words.

Pretty close.

Congrats. On the opposite end, Georgia was by far my biggest blind spot this election. My initial prediction was that Trump and Ossoff would win on November 6, while Warnock would end up losing the runoff due to depressed turnout. I'm not going to be down though, happy to be proven wrong.