Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Would you like to do one comparing Warnock's margins to Biden's in November? I feel like it's a more meaningful comparison than using the jungle primary, and it should highlight some salient patterns.

Relatively little movement: 112 of 159 counties swung less than 2 points one way or another.

There are some striking patterns, though (including obvious racial turnout differentials and the effect of media markets on the northern and southern ends of the state; Warnock had similar issues during the primary).

Thanks! Yeah, I wasn't expecting big swings obviously, but where these swings happened is certainly instructive.

I kinda wish you'd used 2-point increments rather than 3-point ones though. That would have made it easy to visualize a "trend" map, since the swing was about 2 points. I know it's my fault for not asking.

Since I still have the data, easy enough to make a two-color trend map (a little too lazy right now to replicate with shades):

[Adam Griffin]

I mean, 47 counties moving 2+ points either way seems pretty big.

Clayton County was huge. Wasn't that one of the biggest shifts?

In the Biden-Warnock comparison, literally the biggest (6.24 points); 9 of the 10 biggest shifts were to Ds:

[libertpaulian]

I wonder how this race would have gone if Kingston was Senator instead of Perdue.

[VAR]

I mean, 47 counties moving 2+ points either way seems pretty big.

Clayton County was huge. Wasn't that one of the biggest shifts?

In the Biden-Warnock comparison, literally the biggest (6.24 points); 9 of the 10 biggest shifts were to Ds:

Why exactly did Webster County swing so hard to Loeffler/Perdue?

[Adam Griffin]

I mean, 47 counties moving 2+ points either way seems pretty big.

Clayton County was huge. Wasn't that one of the biggest shifts?

In the Biden-Warnock comparison, literally the biggest (6.24 points); 9 of the 10 biggest shifts were to Ds:

Why exactly did Webster County swing so hard to Loeffler/Perdue?

The real question should be "why did it swing so hard to Biden?", because it did given the surrounding area in November (6.4-point swing compared to Clinton's margin). The runoff number appears to be more a reversion to the mean than anything.

It's one of the smallest counties in GA: a lot of this could just be noise due to turnout variations that'd be meaningless in most other places.

[SevenEleven]

I mean, 47 counties moving 2+ points either way seems pretty big.

Clayton County was huge. Wasn't that one of the biggest shifts?

In the Biden-Warnock comparison, literally the biggest (6.24 points); 9 of the 10 biggest shifts were to Ds:

Why exactly did Webster County swing so hard to Loeffler/Perdue?

It wasn't the weather, so the fact that only like 2700 people live there must be the answer.

[Adam Griffin]

Again, some media market dynamics at work.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1348024331251671044

[ajc0918]

What are the odds the 2022 midterm has less turnout than the 2021 runoff?

Will Warnock win by more in 2022?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ossoff will go on to win by ~40k. Mark my Words.

Pretty close.

Congrats. On the opposite end, Georgia was by far my biggest blind spot this election. My initial prediction was that Trump and Ossoff would win on November 6, while Warnock would end up losing the runoff due to depressed turnout. I'm not going to be down though, happy to be proven wrong.

Not sure if you meant to quote me, but just to clarify, I'm not the one who made that prediction.

[MATTROSE94]

What are the odds the 2022 midterm has less turnout than the 2021 runoff?

Will Warnock win by more in 2022?

Raphael Warnock probably wins 52-48 against Doug Collins in 2022 and probably at least 55% in all elections he runs in afterwards.

[wbrocks67]

Are there any meaningful number of votes remaining to be counted?

Good question. Not sure if any of the provisionals or overseas/military have been counted.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

when will cobb come through for perdue? im waiting for late ballots to come in and change it to 80-20 perdue

[GeorgiaModerate]

when will cobb come through for perdue? im waiting for late ballots to come in and change it to 80-20 perdue

DeJoy lost them all in the mail.

On that note, I'm still getting campaign flyers in the mail as of yesterday.  Makes me wonder how many ballots arrived late.

[Adam Griffin]

Are there any meaningful number of votes remaining to be counted?

Good question. Not sure if any of the provisionals or overseas/military have been counted.

5,855 provisional ballots have been counted and reported thus far. Ossoff is winning 71.43% and Warnock 71.99% of them.

For reference, there were 11,120 provisionals in November. Overseas/military do not have their own category and so can't necessarily be tracked in the same way.

[wbrocks67]

Ossoff's lead hits 50K. Looks like with the few thousand ballots left, Loeffler *will* fall just below 49%

Jon Ossoff 2,262,523 (50.57%)
David Perdue 2,211,865 (49.43%)
= Ossoff +50,658 (1.14%)

Raphael Warnock 2,281,671 (50.994%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,192,776 (49.006%)
= Warnock +88,895 (1.99%)

[Rookie Yinzer]

What are the odds the 2022 midterm has less turnout than the 2021 runoff?

Will Warnock win by more in 2022?

I think 2022 is going to be 5 million+. Abrams is going to be on the ballot and the GOP is coming for Warnock.

I think Warnock will win comfortably if the GOP nom is still running on Trumpism.

[libertpaulian]

What are the odds the 2022 midterm has less turnout than the 2021 runoff?

Will Warnock win by more in 2022?

I think 2022 is going to be 5 million+. Abrams is going to be on the ballot and the GOP is coming for Warnock.

I think Warnock will win comfortably if the GOP nom is still running on Trumpism.

If the GOP nom isn't running on Trumpism, it's likely a lot of low-propensity whites stay home, which helps the Reverend, IMO.

Do you think the Dynamic Duo would have won if Kingston was the incumbent instead of Perdue?

[ultraviolet]

I think people are overestimating how fast GA is moving left. States don’t always trend linearly, I bet this state will still be highly competitive until at least 2026. Warnock may not even be the favorite for 2022 at this point.

Even Virginia was competitive for 8+ years

[Хahar 🤔]

The real question is going forward whether or not GA becomes Virginia, a blue state, or North Carolina, a swing state that’s always in reach but still hard.

If current population trends hold it’ll become VA for sure. The Atlanta metro area is just getting bigger and bigger as a share of the vote in the state, whereas the research triangle / Charlotte etc. are staying pretty constant in NC. Plus Dems are winning the Atlanta MSA by more and more every cycle.

2022 will be the last competitive election cycle in GA. If Warnock loses then his opponent will be beyond DOA in 2028, and if Rs hold the governors mansion whoever succeeds Kemp will lose decisively, probably even in a Dem midterm year.

AZ seems to be trending slower and will remain competitive throughout the decade, I would guess. Trump also had a uniquely bad relationship with Arizona moderates that the rest of the GOP doesn’t seem to have. I’ll bet Rs hold the governor’s mansion there until the next R-president midterm, at which point it’s gone for good. And I’d also bet there will be at least one more R senator there before it trends out of competitiveness.

The other factor with Arizona is that there's a constant influx of elderly white voters, as with Florida. This is largely absent in Georgia thanks to its lack of significant coastline; to the contrary emigrants to Georgia tend to be disproportionately non-white.

[Adam Griffin]

The Atlanta metro area is just getting bigger and bigger as a share of the vote in the state

This is the one issue I'll take with your broader commentary's implication. Sure, ATL metro is growing, but a more accurate descriptor of Georgia would be that metro areas in general are growing and rural areas are shrinking as a share of population. Granted, metro areas overall are shifting D, but it's a key distinction: if Democrats only focus on the ATL metro, they'll be missing out on a ton of potential elsewhere.

Lots of definitions can be used for Metro ATL, but this is a pretty wide-reaching one.

2010: 54.3% of population
2018: 56.0% of population

That's not a ton of growth relatively-speaking. It'd be 2037 before ATL metro comprised 60% of the state's population at that rate.

[UncleSam]

The Atlanta metro area is just getting bigger and bigger as a share of the vote in the state

This is the one issue I'll take with your broader commentary's implication. Sure, ATL metro is growing, but a more accurate descriptor of Georgia would be that metro areas in general are growing and rural areas are shrinking as a share of population. Granted, metro areas overall are shifting D, but it's a key distinction: if Democrats only focus on the ATL metro, they'll be missing out on a ton of potential elsewhere.

Lots of definitions can be used for Metro ATL, but this is a pretty wide-reaching one.

2010: 54.3% of population
2018: 56.0% of population

That's not a ton of growth relatively-speaking. It'd be 2037 before ATL metro comprised 60% of the state's population at that rate.

Bear in mind that a 1.7% shift to the ATL metro region corresponds to a 1.7% shift away from the rest of the state. So really it’s more like a 3.5% shift on net, which is pretty significant in only eight years (and I’ll bet in 2020 the percentage jumped again, significantly). It’s also worth noting that among that 56% Ds are doing a lot better than they were in 2010, and are likely to continue doing better and better.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1348366502953709576

The insanity.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1348366502953709576

The insanity.

Trump was effectively blackmailing her. Given how Loeffler decided to drop her challenges following her defeat, it makes me wonder whether she would have made them in the first place, had she not been pressured by Trump in the months leading up to the runoff.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1348366502953709576
The insanity.

Trump is a POS, Example #9271531

[Horus]

I think people are overestimating how fast GA is moving left. States don’t always trend linearly, I bet this state will still be highly competitive until at least 2026. Warnock may not even be the favorite for 2022 at this point.

Even Virginia was competitive for 8+ years

There's a reasonably good chance Warnock will be facing Vernon Jones in which case he's very much the favorite.