Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[tagimaucia]

Even if GOP got absolutely dream turnout today, I doubt there would be very many long lines.  There are only 3 races on the ballot and 3 million people have already voted.  Unless we were able to get live updates of actual numbers of votes cast in different locations like Florida(?) provides, there's probably very little we can learn until actual votes start being counted.

[T0rM3nTeD]

1/5 Update - 3.093M votes so far

Total of 1,018,381 mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.374M mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 2,074,994 EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General would result in:

Dems - 1,631,019
GOP - 1,444,229

Dems +168,779

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My very simple projection model says that if every county has 66% of the election day turnout, and again they all break the same as they did in the GE, dems would still have a 26.7K lead at the end.

That would be a total turnout of 3.72M. The GE was just a little shy of 5M senate votes.

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At 80% election day turnout, I've got the GOP winning by 3.3K votes.

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I've said this before but it's been awhile. These numbers are simply taking the %'s of vote breakdown from each county for each type of vote (EIP, VBM, ED) based on the GE senate race.

[Xing]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

[QAnonKelly]

My sister and I just voted (both 2x D) and it took us about ten minutes. Some asshole who wasn’t wearing a mask was being rude to the election lady because she wouldn’t let him take a picture of him putting his ballot in the receptacle. Wonder who he was voting for. 🤔

[Skye]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

Biden took the lead in GA on Nov. 6, three days later after election night. So yeah.

[MillennialModerate]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

[forsythvoter]

I drove by my normal election day poling place this morning to ship a few packages and there weren't any lines. It might just be the time of day, but the early turnout in Forsyth County has been relatively low and they consolidated some polling places for the runoffs, so if there were a surge in election day voters because voters were intentionally waiting until today, I would expect it to be reflected here. Forsyth Co precincts tend to be pretty massive so lines are not uncommon. I didn't go inside and it's a pretty big building so maybe there's a line inside but iirc, there were people queing outside in November.

Keep in mind though my precinct is pretty competitive for GA. It went 58%-41% Trump and 60% - 39% for Perdue back in November, so turnout here doesn't swing results as much as the North GA rurals or urban ATL precincts do.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Republicans may very well win both runoffs, but there's a lot of evidence that points to Democrats doing well too from polling to EV data to staying unified, ect. IMO, any rational person would say that these are 2 races that could realistically go either way; you can cherrypick evidence to point to a Republican or Democratic win, but overall a lot of it "cancels out"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My sister and I just voted (both 2x D) and it took us about ten minutes. Some asshole who wasn’t wearing a mask was being rude to the election lady because she wouldn’t let him take a picture of him putting his ballot in the receptacle. Wonder who he was voting for. 🤔

Lucky. I had to wait 40 minutes in Harris County early voting.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Damn it. We have to deal with this all over again?

[Roll Roons]

I actually think we'll get the results quickly.

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1346463747775324163

Since there are only three things on the ballot, it follows that counting should also be much quicker. Especially compared to November, when president, Senate, Congress, PSC, State Senate, State House, county positions and various initiatives were all being voted on.  

[QAnonKelly]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

To quote a wise man, "Will you shut up man?"

[forsythvoter]

I actually think we'll get the results quickly.

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1346463747775324163
Since there are only three things on the ballot, it follows that counting should also be much quicker. Especially compared to November, when president, Senate, Congress, PSC, State Senate, State House, county positions and various initiatives were all being voted on.  

That makes sense, but shouldn't the faster throughput also apply for early voting? We did see lines in many places during early so I would assume we should for election day as well.

[TheTide]

Good to see that turnout appears to be low in one Trump precinct, but I prefer to follow the Nate Silver rule: Assume you learn nothing on Election Day until the votes start being reported.

It'd be even more "good" if turnout in that precinct was a. high and b. in fact switching to the Democrats, surely.

[Buzz]

Georgia will find a way to make the counting slow, trust me.

[MillennialModerate]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

To quote a wise name, "Will you shut up man?"

Hopefully I’ll be shut up sometime tonight

[Pollster]

My anecdote to contribute:

An old college friend of mine who lives in DeKalb County went to vote with her family at poll opening this morning and the line was already 3 hours long upon their arrival. She cast her ballot at 10:13. People who arrived after her brought chairs and laptops to work from, and multiple people started offering and using each others' mobile hotspots. She said that she's used to long lines at her polling place, but this one felt longer than usual, though she thinks that could be due to social distancing giving the illusion of longer length. She voted by mail for the November general so couldn't compare.

[Non Swing Voter]

My anecdote to contribute:

An old college friend of mine who lives in DeKalb County went to vote with her family at poll opening this morning and the line was already 3 hours long upon their arrival. She cast her ballot at 10:13. People who arrived after her brought chairs and laptops to work from, and multiple people started offering and using each others' mobile hotspots. She said that she's used to long lines at her polling place, but this one felt longer than usual, though she thinks that could be due to social distancing giving the illusion of longer length. She voted by mail for the November general so couldn't compare.

what?  that seems bizarre given how many people already voted.  Plus the length of the line looking longer than usual doesn't really matter if it was literally 3 hours until she cast her ballot.

[pantsaregood]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Remember that time that you couldn't stop responding to every single post with "Biden can't win Georgia?"
Remember when you told people they were naive for thinking Biden could win Georgia when he was down by 5000 votes and the remaining vote was all from the Atlanta metro?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

[Buzz]

I have some family that works the polls in a small red county in central GA.  They were hoping for 800 people today and so far have 575.  Solid turnout.

[Xing]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Yeah, anyone rational could see how doomed Jacky Rosen was as well.

[LimoLiberal]

I have some family that works the polls in a small red county in central GA.  They were hoping for 800 people today and so far have 575.  Solid turnout.

It wouldn't surprise me if turnout was much higher today on both sides - still good for Rs overall, of course.

[roxas11]

Bad news for the GOP

The The Wall Street Journal just reported that the Georgia Secretary of State says Election Day turnout is light so far....

[MplsDem]

Does anyone know if in person early votes will be reported with the election day vote tonight? Or are those counted later with the mail votes?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does anyone know if in person early votes will be reported with the election day vote tonight? Or are those counted later with the mail votes?

reported later I think.