Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[xavier110]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Nice! What convinced them now?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Nice! What convinced them now?

Just asking them to vote. Full transparency, they are young adults who are very transient when it comes to housing. There's no way that they have ever been canvassed or been in a position to think about an election that intently.

ETA: I told them a few reasons why I'm supporting, but they were mostly sold on the $2k checks and that Ossoff/Warnock are anti-Trump lol.

[SCNCmod]

I was on the phone hustling last minute to make sure everyone I know votes and got three family members to commit to vote tomorrow:

One registered in 2018, but has never voted.
The other voted in 2016 and that's it.
One has only voted in presidentials and never in a runoff.

If we win tomorrow, it is going to be so overwhelming.

Nice! What convinced them now?

Just asking them to vote. Full transparency, they are young adults who are very transient when it comes to housing. There's no way that they have ever been canvassed or been in a position to think about an election that intently.

ETA: I told them a few reasons why I'm supporting, but they were mostly sold on the $2k checks and that Ossoff/Warnock are anti-Trump lol.

Good Work! I hope many other GA Dems are doing the same as well.

I probably should know this- but what part of GA are you from? (Atl Metro or outside of Atl)

[SCNCmod]

At Trump Rally- he keeps saying that "more ballots were cast in (inserts different states), than registered voters."

Any modicum of logic should tell ppl, that never in the history of elections has a state achieved (or even come close to) 100% turnout... much less 100%+ turnout.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1346291506412449792

[SCNCmod]

If Republicans jump to a big lead early tomorrow & then Warnock & Ossoff end up winning after all of Atl & Early votes are reported- the conspiracy theorists (who have no logical understanding of elections, much less how votes are reported) are going to go nuts again.

[Bootes Void]

If Republicans jump to a big lead early tomorrow & then Warnock & Ossoff end up winning after all of Atl & Early votes are reported- the conspiracy theorists (who have no logical understanding of elections, much less how votes are reported) are going to go nuts again.

If the Dems win They would go nuts no matter what.

You have to wonder why most conspiracy theorist support the conservative establishment

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Republicans jump to a big lead early tomorrow & then Warnock & Ossoff end up winning after all of Atl & Early votes are reported- the conspiracy theorists (who have no logical understanding of elections, much less how votes are reported) are going to go nuts again.

If the Dems win They would go nuts no matter what.

You have to wonder why most conspiracy theorist support the conservative establishment

Not really. The Republican Party, sadly, has embraced anti-intellectualism, and as a result logic and reason (the bane of conspiracy theories) are no longer welcome there.

[Adam Griffin]

My dad was going on today about how black farmers in South Georgia are going to make Perdue win handily.

I'll bite.  Why?

Maybe his dad saw this tweet

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1345889577899356162?s=21

Lol I was trying to find the source of this and you found it. IIRC Erickson is his favorite pundit. Lmao thanks.

Honestly there is some truth to it. Rural black voters in South GA (particularly south of Columbus and west of I-75) have time and time again shown a propensity pre-2020 to support various Republicans at 15-20%. While this tends to happen downballot more so (think state representatives and local elected officials), the Perdue name itself has some gravitas (farmers or not). Sonny got fairly crazy numbers of black support in his re-election (>15%). It's pretty obvious from statewide analysis that Trump did in fact get no less than 10% of the black vote: I would not be surprised (especially given the swings we saw in predominantly black rural counties) if he got closer to 15% or more in rural South GA.

Anybody can take a look at this tool and see various SWGA precincts where Perdue did better than Trump by a gradient - and the gradients are 20-point intervals; the effect would certainly be more noticeable if this map displayed margins by 5-point gradients instead. I really want to see a swing map by precinct of Georgia.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=5d930a3281ad403391b1d9b3f7f9d145

[Adam Griffin]

Here, I made this a few weeks ago. You can see that corner of SW GA is even redder than Atlanta suburbs.

This is an interesting map (to me, at least) if for only one reason: it reminds everybody that NWGA is basically the only part of the state where poor white people still exist en masse (as a percentage of total pop). NEGA is increasingly being filled with rich out-of-state whites, metro and urban areas are of course very diverse in every facet, and rural South GA is a big mixture of poor white and poor black communities. It's basically the "purest" region when balancing base socioeconomic variables. Of course, it does also have the largest Latino population of any broader area outside of the Gwinnett/Hall region, which creates a unique variable (that is often minimized in runoff/low-turnout contests).

Combined with the media market segmentation (Chattanooga predominantly serving the 7 most northwestern counties), it's pretty easy to see why Trump outperformed Perdue in a largely poor, white, manufacturing-based region. Sometimes it helps to imagine NWGA as a non-unionized, Southron analog of the Rust Belt.

It's also going to be a good indicator tomorrow I think in terms of whether there'll be enough ED vote to give Republicans a win. The same area is also seeing some of the lowest turnout rates thus far compared to November; it's obvious the Republicans are worried about this and it likely explains why Trump decided to close out the runoff with a rally in Dalton (and close out the GE with a rally in Rome).

Keep an eye on fully reporting precincts in non-Paulding CD-14 tomorrow and compare overall raw totals and ED raw totals to November. They may be the earliest single-best indicator of what to expect.

[SCNCmod]

Pander much? In case anyone missed Perdue (looking pretty weak & pathetic) saying Senators should object to certification:

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1346230166050267143

[QAnonKelly]

Pander much? In case anyone missed Perdue (looking pretty weak & pathetic) saying Senators should object to certification:

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1346230166050267143

Even though he’s not a senator rn.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I probably should know this- but what part of GA are you from? (Atl Metro or outside of Atl)

I live in Newton County.

[Matty]

For those confident a 51-50 senate can pass a public option, Connecticut. yes, Connecticut, recently saw its state senate kill the bill.

Health insurance lobby is powerful as hell. Dirty truth, but its the truth.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1346311252809830402?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

My prediction for how tomorrow will go:

-There are a lot of reports about the in person vote throughout the day that a bunch of people post in this thread and latch on to too much

-Polls close, and no one has the clear advantage for the first hour

-Northern GA which has lagged in turnout ends up having medicore turnout for the GOP, but they’ve sustained their margins

-Atlanta takes a long time to count, but while the margins in some counties are underwhelming turnout is strong

-The “black belt” is notably strong for Democrats

-Democrats perform “eh” in a lot of the midsized cities.

-South rural white GA is just fine for the GOP; nothing notable

At first everyone says Perdue and Loefeller are favored, only to then say Warnock and Osoff are favored, and just willy nilly switch back and forth until someone is clearly favored. A bunch of notorious Atlas partisans will continue to make case for their canidates until it’s clear as day they have no chance of winning

We know by Wednesday morning who will win, even if the networks haven’t officially called the races

I currently think it’ll be Perdue + 4 and Loefeller + 2, which would probably make this a very boring and disappointing senate cycle, at least from the perspective of a Democrat, though that’s my gut, my brain and Excel say otherwise

While the races are tossup, I think whoever wins wins by slightly more than most of Atlas suspects

[forsythvoter]

Not going to have much time to post this week as a result of work, but figured I'd do a quick report-out of what I've been experiencing today. I caught up with several co-workers today and tomorrow's election came up more than a few times. Most people who were planning to vote said they had already voted, and where they were willing to state who they voted for, they generally followed who they voted for in the Presidential. Ossoff / Warnock seem to have consolidated the Biden vote and Perdue / Loeffler likewise the Trump voters. I still think Perdue will outperform Loeffler by a little, but it's interesting that I'm actually not encountering people who will admit to splitting their tickets.

[Buzz]

I've talked to a ton of people about the election on both sides and only one person was split ticketing (Perdue/Warnock).  I don't expect to see much of it tomorrow.

(It was a metro ATL moderate hero as well haha, fits the narrative for Perdue)

[roxas11]

The way it see it we will know fairly soon who is going to win just based off the turnout alone

the reality If we are not seeing huge turnout that either matches or surpasses the presidential election..........than this race is over and The Dems are going to win.  


The GOP only have themselves to blame for telling their voters to only vote on election day
they allowed the Dems to do way better than them when it comes to early voting and now they have to have this crazy turnout on election day that we do not normally see for runoffs

Bottom line if turnout disappoints tomorrow say hello to Senate Majority Leader chuck schumer

[Horus]

Not going to have much time to post this week as a result of work, but figured I'd do a quick report-out of what I've been experiencing today. I caught up with several co-workers today and tomorrow's election came up more than a few times. Most people who were planning to vote said they had already voted, and where they were willing to state who they voted for, they generally followed who they voted for in the Presidential. Ossoff / Warnock seem to have consolidated the Biden vote and Perdue / Loeffler likewise the Trump voters. I still think Perdue will outperform Loeffler by a little, but it's interesting that I'm actually not encountering people who will admit to splitting their tickets.

In other words, it's gonna be a turnout game.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1346311252809830402?s=20

https://twitter.com/OriginalBad/status/1346322837838192645

Huh. Assuming this is true, they should've published the results regardless of the results.

[Matty]

Why not publish the results? Not like there haven't been other polls showing numbers in that ballpark.

I personally don't believe this one bit. My guess is that it is completely made up, or, if not made up, the person who "leaked" it didn't realize it was wrong numbers or improper weighting.

[Matty]

AJC is a center-left, or at least anti-trump, paper.

I find it extremely hard to believe they would sit on a poll because they think it would be an outlier.

respected papers don't do that. The story is either outright false, or the newspaper discovered some error in methodology.

[DaleCooper]

I don't know anything about the paper in question, but I don't think it's implausible that there's a lot of hesitation when publishing polls that show a big lead for a candidate, especially these days when the "polls were wrong" narrative is so prominent even among the general public.

[Pericles]

AJC is a center-left, or at least anti-trump, paper.

I find it extremely hard to believe they would sit on a poll because they think it would be an outlier.

respected papers don't do that. The story is either outright false, or the newspaper discovered some error in methodology.

Why would they risk publishing a poll that has an out-there result? Look at how much flack WaPo got for their WI Biden +17% poll. There's much less reward for if they are the outlier that calls it right, and most outliers are wrong too.