Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Non Swing Voter]

either Nate Cohn is reading this wrong or something crazy is happening in DeKalb

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1346544945730105345

Was looking though the data, 40,000+ seems like a reasonable estimate; though I didn't go out of my way to calculate every precinct

He used a scraping tool so presumably it was perfect.  Not sure how updated the numbers are though.  I clicked on a random precinct then again 30 minutes later and the number wasn't changed at all.

[EastwoodS]

Betting markets have shifted slightly back to Ossoff

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Ossoff 51.1%
Perdue 48.8%

Warnock 61.5%
Loeffler 38.4%

Does this predict certainty or margin?

[Hope For A New Era]

Betting markets have shifted slightly back to Ossoff

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Ossoff 51.1%
Perdue 48.8%

Warnock 61.5%
Loeffler 38.4%

Does this predict certainty or margin?

I think the 61.5-38.4 there makes pretty clear that it's certainty.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Betting markets have shifted slightly back to Ossoff

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Ossoff 51.1%
Perdue 48.8%

Warnock 61.5%
Loeffler 38.4%

Does this predict certainty or margin?

Betting markets are often incredibly off the mark, but not enough to predict Warnock getting over 60% of the vote.

[Lord Halifax]

Betting markets have shifted slightly back to Ossoff

ElectionBettingOdds.com

Ossoff 51.1%
Perdue 48.8%

Warnock 61.5%
Loeffler 38.4%

Does this predict certainty or margin?

Certainty.

[Gass3268]

Sterling expects turnout to be less than 1 million today:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346559270406520834?s=21

[CellarDoor]

It's happening.  Needles.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

[new_patomic]

"Subset" of a million is interesting phrasing

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I really hope that my arch nemesis David Perdue is destroyed. He must pay for tricking Atlanta suburbanites into thinking he was a moderate

I never want to see another ad where David Perdue creepily smiles 6 inches in front of a camera ever again

[AndyHogan14]

It's happening.  Needles.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Just seeing this page up is going to give me a coronary.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Sterling expects turnout to be less than 1 million today:

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346559270406520834?s=21

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1346562571294420992

So, really nothing to learn from his comments.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ewerickson/status/1346564158712664066?s=21

https://twitter.com/jacobrubashkin/status/1346554754248400897?s=21

[Omolloy]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

[BudgieForce]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yep.

Edit: It's normal to release parts of them anyway. But its important to not read too much into them. The exit polls from November had some pretty large fluctuations as the night went on.

[Sol]

How does turnout look so far in the Savannah area?

[Devils30]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yep.

Edit: It's normal to release parts of them anyway. But its important to not read too much into them. The exit polls from November had some pretty large fluctuations as the night went on.

It's just preliminary numbers, you won't get a head to head exit until 7.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yes, 5pm Eastern is the standard time for initial exit poll release.  But it won't include any top-line numbers, just things like "what was the most important issue", "when did you make up your mind", etc.

[tagimaucia]

I don't know if its intentional or he just has bad sources, but Erick Erickson has been tweeting out wrong/misleading info for weeks about GA early voting so I assume the opposite of anything he says is true.

[Crumpets]

Don't know why everyone is getting so worked up over elections where we already know the result.

https://twitter.com/CeesBoogaart/status/1330418683865407496

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1346557796888805388

[Damocles]

Don't know why everyone is getting so worked up over elections where we already know the result.

https://twitter.com/CeesBoogaart/status/1330418683865407496

S A K A R T V E L O

[Omolloy]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yes, 5pm Eastern is the standard time for initial exit poll release.  But it won't include any top-line numbers, just things like "what was the most important issue", "when did you make up your mind", etc.

Ah, yeah, makes sense. Thanks!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1346565555969552393

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

We're in for a long night, folks.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yes, 5pm Eastern is the standard time for initial exit poll release.  But it won't include any top-line numbers, just things like "what was the most important issue", "when did you make up your mind", etc.

Ah, yeah, makes sense. Thanks!

And you can bet we'll pore over every figure we get